铜：离岸人民币回升，LME库存转降，铜价反弹，昨日伦铜收涨1.45%至8859美元/吨，沪铜主力收至69610元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存减少1025至73350吨，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货升水涨至45元/吨，盘面回落下游入市采购积极，成交活跃。进出口方面，昨日国内现货铜进口亏损缩至400元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价微幅反弹。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差缩至1520元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。价格层面，进入3月中国铜需求预计进一步回暖，供应预计小增，供需将由过剩转向紧平衡。海外供应端扰动仍有不确定性，但随着时间推进，供应有望增多，海外交易所低库存现状预计逐渐缓解。近期美联储鹰派言论、供应增加及国内经济刺激政策弱于预期施压铜价，而需求端对价格构成较强支撑。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：68800-69800元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230309铜离岸人民币回升LME库存转降铜价反弹昨日伦铜收涨145至8859美元吨沪铜主力收至69610元吨产业层面昨日LME库存减少1025至73350吨注销仓单比例提高Cash3M贴水26美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水涨至45元吨盘面回落下游入市采购积极成交活跃进出口方面昨日国内现货铜进口亏损缩至400元吨左右洋山铜溢价微幅反弹废铜有色金属小组方面昨日国内精废价差缩至1520元吨废铜替代优势降低价格层面进入3月中国铜需求预计进一步回暖供应预计小增供需将由过剩转向紧平衡海外供应端扰动仍有不确定性但随吴坤金着时间推进供应有望增多海外交易所低库存现状预计逐渐缓解近期美联储鹰派言论供应从业资格号F3036210增加及国内经济刺激政策弱于预期施压铜价而需求端对价格构成较强支撑今日沪铜主力运行交易咨询号Z0015924区间参考68800-69800元吨0755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18515元吨截止昨日下午三点下跌040SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18470元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-50铝期货仓单215288吨较前一日上升5341吨LME铝库从业资格号F3082524存554300吨减少3625吨2023年3月6日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1269万吨与上周四交易咨询号Z0015924库存持平较1月底库存月度增加283万吨较2022年3月份历史同期库存增加125万吨较春节0755-23375132前119日库存累计增加525万吨本周电解铝锭库存波动不大与上周四32日库存持wangzywkqhcn平增幅放缓2023年1月份31天国内电解铝产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长67日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日美联储偏鹰表态压制有色金属价格沪铝预计震荡钟靖运行主力合约参考运行区间18200-18800从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收197140元吨跌幅095截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单下降28吨现为8152吨LME库存下降180吨现为2730吨长江有色锡1的平均价为198500元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收184500元吨据Mysteel调研国内20家锡冶炼厂涉及精锡产能31万吨总产能覆盖率97结果显示2023年2月精锡产量为13656吨环比增加108同比增加795加工费持续走低压制冶炼厂生产意愿南美minsur锡矿复产海外锡矿供应端整体偏松2月韩国半导体出口额降至596亿美元同比下滑425IDC预估2023年手机出货量同比下降112024年才会真正复苏美联储偏鹰表态压制有色金属价格沪锡震荡偏弱行情预计延续主力参考运行区间180000-200000镍周三LME镍库存减696吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格跌083沪镍主力合约跌103国内基本面方面周三现货价格报190600197200元吨俄镍现货对04合约升水降至3450元吨金川镍现货升水7750元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期国内供应和需求边际修复但过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看需求回暖但短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面改善程度仍待观察不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存小幅去库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点对原料价格支撑中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年3月8日日频数据2023年3月9日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜73350102522450306124502409801147513485324842049634234050787786792416铝554300362511145020114831302599667921528853414685132144505797785825633锌39075502925749NA12367626995489217616093838410165NA781NANA铅2477504825194855047523483435763271106424524140807227288693073镍43772646367884022375288437013346713843481852023年3月8日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期69706USDCNY即期696821个月美元LIBORNA3个月美元LIBORNA2023年3月9日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价3000002000065005300009000048000080000250000550015000430000450070000380000200000100003500330000600001500005000250028000050000230000100000150040000018000050030000130000500005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-062021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价200000070140000400440018000001200006030039001600000100000140000050800002003400120000040600001000000100290040000800000302000002400600000200400000190010-100200000200000040000-20014002022-092021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000004000003000090025000650000350000250006002300060000030000020000550000210002500001500030050000019000200000100004500001700015000050000400000150003500001000000-3001300030000050000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000001002400200500001001900005000-1001400SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-062021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070005000100210060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-501500SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002500020017000180000200001600001600020000010015000140000100001500001200001500005000140001000000-10080000100000500013000-200600001000012000500001500040000-300110002000020000025000-4001000002021-082022-072021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006040002000520004700025000050200015004200001000200000403700020005003200015000030270004000022000100000206000-500170001200050000108000-100070000010000-1500沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90040009001000200008508500-1000800-2000800-2000-4000750-3000750-6000-4000700-8000-5000700650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950850-1000900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002022-062021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02