【基本面信息】
铜:产业层面,昨日LME库存减少1025至73350吨,注销仓单比例提高,Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。国内方面,昨日上海地区现货升水涨至45元/吨,盘面回落下游入市采购积极,成交活跃。进出口方面,昨日国内现货铜进口亏损缩至400元/吨左右,洋山铜溢价微幅反弹。 铝:SMM现货A00铝报均价18470元/吨。A00铝锭升贴水平均价-50。铝期货仓单215288吨,较前一日上升5341吨。LME铝库存554300吨,减少3625吨。2023年3月6日,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存126.9万吨。 黄金:截至3月8日(周三),全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)SPDRGold Trust黄金持仓量为29148868.96盎司或906.62吨,较前一交易日持平。 铁矿石:港口现货市场成交情况尚可,现货价格较上一交易日上涨5元/吨,钢厂按需采购,交投情绪一般。本周建材日成交在近两周明显增加,下游需求逐步恢复。 研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2023年3月9日星期四基本面信息铜产业层面昨日LME库存减少1025至73350吨注销仓单比例提高Cash3M贴水26美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水涨至45元吨盘面回落下游入市采购积极成交活跃进出口方面昨日国内现货铜进口亏损缩至400元吨左右洋山铜溢价微幅反弹铝SMM现货A00铝报均价18470元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-50铝期货仓单215288吨较前一日上升5341吨LME铝库存554300吨减少3625吨2023年3月6日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1269万吨卢品先投研经理黄金截至3月8日周三全球最大黄金上市交易基金ETFSPDRGoldTrust黄金持仓量为0755-233752522914886896盎司或90662吨较前一交易日持平lupxwkjyqhcom铁矿石港口现货市场成交情况尚可现货价格较上一交易日上涨5元吨钢厂按需采购交投情绪一般本周建材日成交在近两周明显增加下游需求逐步恢复从业资格号F3047321期权分析及策略建议交易咨询号1铜期权Z0015541沪铜CU2304上周以来冲高回落震荡下行而后止跌反弹上升本周以来逐渐回落下行后围绕20天均线附近上下波动延续近两周以来高位区间震荡涨幅096报收于69610期权隐含波动率上升019报收于1732持仓量PCR有所下降报收于171操作建议沪铜CU2304形成上方有压力下方有支撑的高位大幅震荡期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR小幅下跌构建卖出看涨看跌偏中性的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓逐渐离场如CU2304SCU2304P69000SCU2304P68000和SCU2304C70000SCU2304C710002铝期权沪铝AL2304前一周上升而后受阻回落延续弱势偏空头市场行情走势上周以来维持空头压力线下大幅震荡涨幅014报收于18535期权隐含波动率下降043报收于1300持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于092操作建议沪铝AL2304延续空头压力线下弱势盘整震荡期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR有所反弹上升构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如AL2304SAL2304P1850010SAL2304P1840010和SAL2304C1870010SAL2304C18600103锌期权沪锌ZN2304维持两周多以来55天均线压力向下大幅波动涨幅017报收于23310期权隐含波动率上升057报收于1777持仓量PCR窄幅盘整报收于121操作建议沪锌ZN2304上方有压力的低位震荡延续前期弱势偏空头趋势期权隐含波动率窄幅波动沪锌期权持仓量PCR小幅下降构建卖出宽跨式期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如ZN2304SZN2304P23200SZN2304P23000和SZN2304C23600SZN2304C234004黄金期权黄金AU2304上周以来持续上涨突破区间上限本周冲高回落大幅下跌回落至前期矩形震荡区间跌幅044报收于41368期权隐含波动率小幅下降062报收于1147期权持仓量PCR报收于075操作建议黄金AU2304近两周以来先扬后抑连续报收大阳线上涨后又快速下跌回落至前期的宽幅矩形震荡区间期权隐含波动率持续下降期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如AU2304SAU2304-P-40810SAU2304-P-41610和SAU2304-C-41610SAU2304-C-424105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2305近三周以来多头趋势方向上高位震荡趋势线方向向上涨幅005报收于91150期权隐含波动率下降001报收于3139期权持仓量PCR有所下降报收于320操作建议铁矿石I2505多头趋势方向高位盘整震荡逐渐上行且趋势线方向斜率仍为正期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR维持较高水平构建牛市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓离场如I2305BI2301-C-88010和SI2305-C-93010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU230469610006600009682728505ALAL230418535002500014145613474ZNZN23042331000400001795311086AUAU230441368-182-04477732267II230591150050005417838061数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU2304700005140015840068930-66800-096-68000192023-03-27AL230418500235001850018550-6500-0351500192023-03-27ZN230423400292004500023242-22700-097-6800192023-03-27AU2304416260456414-470-112036192023-03-27I230591031202860913250027110332023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2304167917691732019180418971712AL2304136612341300-043145615581353ZN2304178217731777057180519051705AU2304116911221147-062117812341121I2305268333683139-001321433423087数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU230423674344401450401497625615171-001AL230423250229010980272884626419092001ZN230412945186481440461021712373121002AU230499169000091-0011759313199075-001I23054409487985200001123392394844320-008数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500025成交量万收盘价68880007000020650001560000105500055000002022-11-182022-12-272023-02-102022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-08图2铝主力合约走势图2000040成交量万收盘价19500351854000190003018500251800020175001517000101650051600002022-09-142022-09-272023-01-182023-02-072022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-192022-09-222022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-08图3锌主力合约走势图2600050成交量万收盘价25000402400030230002326000202200021000102000002023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-08图4黄金主力合约走势图30成交量万收盘价42041408405203901037536002022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-08图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价912001209001008008070060406002050002022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022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4140825090CLOSE4200854102008007540007039015065380060100553700503602022-08-262022-11-102022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-022022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-222022-12-302023-01-102023-01-182023-02-022023-02-102023-02-202023-02-282023-03-082023-02-282022-09-072022-09-202022-09-302022-10-192022-10-312022-11-102022-11-222022-12-022022-12-142022-12-262023-01-062023-01-182023-02-062023-02-162022-08-26IMPVMA20UPLOW铁矿石期权持仓分布铁矿石期权持仓分布图铁矿石期权持仓变化图600003000250050000200040000150030000100050020000010000-5000-10007807807201100480480510540570600630660690720750810840870900930960990104011004805105405706006306606907507808108408709009309609901040OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铁矿石期权最大未平仓铁矿石认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价10009509008508007507006506005505002022-09-272022-12-142023-02-152022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-08铁矿石期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铁矿石期权持仓量PCR铁矿石期权隐含波动率91200410950OIPCR60360CLOSE900503108502608004021075030160700201106500606002022-10-252022-12-062022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-142022-12-222022-12-302023-01-102023-01-182023-02-022023-02-102023-02-202023-02-282023-03-082023-02-282022-09-072022-09-202022-09-302022-10-192022-10-312022-11-102022-11-222022-12-022022-12-142022-12-262023-01-062023-01-182023-02-062023-02-162022-08-26IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007
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