铜：国内股市冲高回落，LME库存延续增加，美联储主席发言打压市场情绪，昨日铜价跌幅扩大，伦铜收跌2.43%至8732美元/吨，沪铜主力收至68750元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存增加1975至74375吨，增量来自亚洲仓库，注销仓单比例降低，Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货升水涨至30元/吨，市场成交依旧积极，成交偏好。进出口方面，昨日国内现货铜进口亏损600元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价下滑至19.5美元/吨。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差扩至1760元/吨，废铜替代优势提高。价格层面，进入3月中国铜需求预计进一步回暖，供应预计小增，供需将由过剩转向紧平衡。海外供应端扰动仍有不确定性，但随着时间推进，供应有望增多，海外交易所低库存现状预计逐渐缓解。近期美联储鹰派言论、供应增加及国内经济刺激政策弱于预期施压铜价，价格或考验需求端支撑。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：68000-69500元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230308铜国内股市冲高回落LME库存延续增加美联储主席发言打压市场情绪昨日铜价跌幅扩大伦铜收跌243至8732美元吨沪铜主力收至68750元吨产业层面昨日LME库存增加1975至74375吨增量来自亚洲仓库注销仓单比例降低Cash3M贴水26美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水涨至30元吨市场成交依旧积极成交偏好进出口方面昨日国内现有色金属小组货铜进口亏损600元吨左右洋山铜溢价下滑至195美元吨废铜方面昨日国内精废价差扩至1760元吨废铜替代优势提高价格层面进入3月中国铜需求预计进一步回暖供应预计小吴坤金增供需将由过剩转向紧平衡海外供应端扰动仍有不确定性但随着时间推进供应有望增从业资格号F3036210多海外交易所低库存现状预计逐渐缓解近期美联储鹰派言论供应增加及国内经济刺激政策交易咨询号Z0015924弱于预期施压铜价价格或考验需求端支撑今日沪铜主力运行区间参考68000-69500元吨0755-23375135wkjwkqhcn王震宇从业资格号F3082524铝沪铝主力合约报收18590元吨截止昨日下午三点上涨016SMM现货A00铝报均价交易咨询号Z001856718560元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-60铝期货仓单209947吨较前一日上升2778吨LME铝库0755-23375132存557925吨减少4400吨2023年3月6日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1269万吨与上周四wangzywkqhcn库存持平较1月底库存月度增加283万吨较2022年3月份历史同期库存增加125万吨较春节前119日库存累计增加525万吨本周电解铝锭库存波动不大与上周四32日库存持钟靖平增幅放缓2023年1月份31天国内电解铝产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长67从业资格号F3035267日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日国内PMI超预期带动铝价强势反弹沪铝预计震荡偏0755-23375125强运行主力合约参考运行区间18200-18800zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收199030元吨下跌031截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单下降113吨现为8180吨LME库存下降30吨现为2910吨长江有色锡1的平均价为200500元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收186250元吨据Mysteel调研国内20家锡冶炼厂涉及精锡产能31万吨总产能覆盖率97结果显示2023年2月精锡产量为13656吨环比增加108同比增加795加工费持续走低压制冶炼厂生产意愿南美minsur锡矿复产海外锡矿供应端整体偏松2月韩国半导体出口额降至596亿美元同比下滑425IDC预估2023年手机出货量同比下降112024年才会真正复苏沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间190000-210000镍周二LME镍库存减210吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格跌13沪镍主力合约涨008国内基本面方面周二现货价格报193300199700元吨俄镍现货对04合约升水降至3650元吨金川镍现货升水8350元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期国内供应和需求边际修复但过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看需求回暖但短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面改善程度仍待观察不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存小幅去库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点对原料价格支撑中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年3月7日日频数据2023年3月8日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜74375197520475275326002524557899135101359542391931913511078878878774铝557925440010512518844925302599756520994727784663693518705800787820467锌391254275297576026751236762845550683711613222161101357817868351615铅24775048251948550475235383432492001061183170170707217288642970镍4441821044401000224002884104214017813024912102023年3月7日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期69268USDCNY即期699411个月美元LIBOR471133个月美元LIBOR500802023年3月8日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价3000002000065005300009000048000080000250000550015000430000450070000380000200000100003500330000600001500005000250028000050000230000100000150040000018000050030000130000500005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-092021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价2500000701400004004400120000603003900200000010000050800002003400150000040600001002900400001000000302000002400205000000-100190010200000040000-20014002023-012021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000004000003000090025000650000350000250006002300060000030000020000550000210002500001500030050000019000200000100004500001700015000050000400000150003500001000000-3001300030000050000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002021-062021-082022-012021-032021-042021-052021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002021-062021-082021-032021-042021-052021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002500020017000180000200001600001600020000010015000140000100001500001200001500005000140001000000-10080000100000500013000-200600001000012000500001500040000-300110002000020000025000-4001000002021-082022-112021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006040002000520004700025000050200015004200001000200000403700020005003200015000030270004000022000100000206000-500170001200050000108000-100070000010000-15002021-102022-082021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950850-1000900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02