PTA
　　3月逸盛600万吨/年PTA装置降负，恒力石化一套220万吨/年PTA装置停车，聚酯有多套新装置计划投产，织厂库存尚可，织厂和染厂订单多维持到3月底，目前看产业链估值依然偏低，旺季预期下支撑较强，走势上震荡偏强。单边建议逢低做多。配置上建议多TA空EG。
　　MEG
　　供应方面，3月整体来看国内外乙二醇装置检修依然集中，新装置负荷不高，产量释放有限，煤制开工提升较快，在利润修复下部分合成气制乙二醇3月中下旬有复产预期，供应端在逐渐回升。需求方面目前来看聚酯负荷稳中有升，3-4月份乙二醇供需矛盾不大，需关注后期预期的兑现情况，短期价格震荡。
　　PF
　　短纤开工提升，库存小幅上涨，下游纯涤纱开工提升，原料库存回落，成品库存回升，下游订单增长有限，成品库存相对偏高，短纤利润压缩至盈亏平衡线附近，估值偏低，需求发力不足，加工费预计仍维持偏低水平。
　　

研究报告全文：聚酯产业链周报能化投资研究部隋斐投资咨询资格证号Z0017025230224-230306银河能化微信公众号目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES1目录第一章综述11产业链周度数据观点GALAXYFUTURES211产业链周度数据观点PTA3月逸盛600万吨年PTA装置降负恒力石化一套220万吨年PTA装置停车聚酯有多套新装置计划投产织厂库存尚可织厂和染厂订单多维持到3月底目前看产业链估值依然偏低旺季预期下支撑较强走势上震荡偏强单边建议逢低做多配置上建议多TA空EGMEG供应方面3月整体来看国内外乙二醇装置检修依然集中新装置负荷不高产量释放有限煤制开工提升较快在利润修复下部分合成气制乙二醇3月中下旬有复产预期供应端在逐渐回升需求方面目前来看聚酯负荷稳中有升3-4月份乙二醇供需矛盾不大需关注后期预期的兑现情况短期价格震荡PF短纤开工提升库存小幅上涨下游纯涤纱开工提升原料库存回落成品库存回升下游订单增长有限成品库存相对偏高短纤利润压缩至盈亏平衡线附近估值偏低需求发力不足加工费预计仍维持偏低水平品种强弱排序TAPFEGGALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES4目录第二章估值21PX22PTA23MEG24聚酯GALAXYFUTURES521PX-价格GALAXYFUTURES621PX-价差利润PX-BLENT亚洲PX-NAP亚洲9008008007007006006005005004004003003002002001001000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PX-MX韩国PX理论利润5002500400200015003001000500200050010010001500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920201002021202220232017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES721PX-价差利润PX韩国-美国亚洲甲苯调油价差2005001004000100300200200300400100500060070010080020011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023亚洲甲苯歧化利润亚洲歧化-调油6005005004004003003002002001001000010010020020030011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES822PTA-价格GALAXYFUTURES922PTA-价差PTA印度-中国PTA-PX现货加工费2503000200250015020001001500501000050050010011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112150020172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1022PTA-利润PTA-原油现货利润PTA-石脑油现货利润50005000400040003000300020002000100010000010001000200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PTA-PX理论利润2500200015001000500050010001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1123MEG-价格GALAXYFUTURES1223MEG-现货价格GALAXYFUTURES1323MEG-上游价格无烟煤3000250020001500100050001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023甲醇江苏出罐价乙烯东北亚4500160040001400350012003000100025008002000600150010004005002000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1423MEG-价差GALAXYFUTURES1523MEG-价差MEG内外盘价差1200100080060040020002004006001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023EO-125EGMEG华东-华南500020004000150030001000200050010000050010001000200011213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1623MEG-价差MEG东北亚-东南亚200150100500501001502001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023MEG中国-西北欧MEG中国-美国3002002001001000010010020030020040030050060040011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1723MEG-利润MEG油制利润MTO制MEG利润8000300060002000400010002000001000200020004000300011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023MEG乙烯单体制利润MEG煤制利润内蒙古500020001500400010003000500200001000500010001000150020002000300025004000300011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1824PF-价差GALAXYFUTURES19