研究报告全文：3Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBudAPAC1876HKDowntoHOLDwhenpositivesoftherecoveryHOLDDowntradehavemostlyplayedoutTargetPriceHK266PreviousTPHK2724QresultscameinbelowuswithanetlossofUS12mnandaslightlydeeperUpDownside73thanexpectedrevenuedeclineHoweverthiswasnotatotalsurprisetouswhenCurrentPriceHK248ourchannelchecksuggestedalukewarmsalesmomentumforthequarterChinaConsumerimpactedbylockdownsWhileresultscouldbeeventfultoneartermsharepriceFoodandBeveragewebelievelongtermmarketwouldinsteadfocusonthereopeningtrendForinstancemanagementhasbeenguidinganalmost100reopeningratioofJosephWongrestaurantsandnightlifechannelsbytheend-Febandremainsconstructiveon85239000838therecoverytrajectoryfor2Q23BudweiserhasbeenoneofourtoppicksjosephwongcmbicomhkHoweverconsideringa40bull-runsinceend-OctdrivenbythecompanyspricehikeandsubsequentlyChinasre-openingannouncementswethinkStockDatacatalyststothisrecoverytradehavemostlybeenpriced-inThisbecomesmoreMktCapHKmn328436Avg3mthstoHKmn1784evidenttousthatthestockistradingclosetoits3-yearaveragewhenmajority52wHighLowHK274159ofitsFBpeerswhoarestilltradingbelowMeanwhilewearenotawareofanyTotalIssuedSharesmn13243incrementaldriversthatcouldpushupearningsmateriallyhigherthanwhatweSourceBBGarelookingatWedowngradeBudAPACtoHOLDShareholdingStructureABInbevBrewingCo872KeytakeawayfrommanagementcallTheweak4QwasmostlyduetoJPMorganChaseCo09channelclosuresincombinedwithbigcustomertrafficreductionsDespiteTTowePrice06CNYseasonalitymomentumhasstartedrecoveringinJanandextendedSourceHKExintoFebThishasledtoa20volumegrowthforthemonthOntheotherSharePerformancehandKoreahasseendouble-digitgrowthalreadyin2022WhileAbsoluteRelativegovernmentpolicycontinuestobeatailwindtotherecoverygrowthcould1-mth08102deceleratefromahighbaseinourview3-mth44-326-mth11280HigherdividendpayoutManagementannouncedanincreaseonthefinalSourceBBGdividendpersharetotheshareholdersfrom302centsUSin2021to37812-mthPricePerformancecentsUSin2022whichtranslatestoa547payoutfrom42in2021HKD3001876HKHSCEIrebasedEarningschangeandvaluationWecut5363ofournetearningsfor250202324Efollowingthe4Q22resultsdrivenbya5667reductionin200revenuesOurTPofHK266fromHK272isbasedonanunchanged150200xend-23EEVEBITDAwhichstillrepresents3-yearaverageInourview10050BudAPACremainsaqualityplaywithstrongcorporategovernanceand00Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23executionintheregionthatcontinuouslyridesonconsumerpremiumizationSourceBBGUpsideriskstoourHOLDcallwouldbe1stronger-than-expectedsalesrecoveryfromnight-lifechannelinChina2furtherpricehikefor20233AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersvalue-accretiveMAand4better-than-expectedsalesperformancefromregionsoutsideChinaRelatedReports1Mengniu2319HKAYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24Elaggardplaytothisearly-stagedRevenueUSmn55886788647874637975consumption-ledrecovery21YoYgrowth1462154615269Feb2023NetincomeUSmn514950913126713622YiliInd600887CHSharesEPSUS004007007010010couldrallyinreliefonbackofanYoYgrowth4818464038775inline4Q2221Feb2023ConsensusEPSUSnana0070100113KweichowMoutai600519CHProxyofChinasconsumption-PExnana462333310ledrecovery06Feb2023PBxnana3937354ChinaConsumerPositiveDivYieldnana121618takeawayfromFBdistributorsROE508783113113butsectorsbull-runcouldtakeaNetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashbreatherfromhere-31JanSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimates2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk3Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffUSmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue647874637975712879038544-91-56-67NormalizedEBITDA188323852571234025992853-195-83-99Netprofitreported91312671362115413331479-209-50-79EPSUS007010010009010011-234-53-63NormEBITDAMargin291319322328329334-38ppt-09ppt-12pptNetMarginreported141170171162169173-21ppt01ppt-02pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue647874637975668774878109-31-03-17NormalizedEBITDA188323852571NANANANANANANetprofitreported9131267136295012791405-39-09-30EPSUS007010010007010011-42-14-38NormEBITDAMargin00700291319010322NANANANANANANetMarginreported1417170171142171173-01ppt-01ppt-02pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure312mforwardPEchartFigure4LTMPBchartx1-yrfwdEVEBITDALTaveragex1-yrtrailingPBLTaverage-2SD-1SD3455-1SD1SD1SD2SD2SD502945244019351430925Jul20Jul21Jul22JulJul20Jul21Jul22JulOct19Oct20Apr20Oct21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctJan20Jan21Jan22Jan23JanApr21AprOct19Oct20Apr20Oct21Oct22Apr22OctJan20JanJan22Jan23Jan21JanSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE23Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue55886788647874637975Netincome51495091312671362AsiaPacificEast11621222125114701513DA608668622631683AsiaPacificWest44265566522759946462Changeinworkingcapital183441516766Others4241685054Grossprofits29073657324039704266Netcashfroperatingact13011903131620152165Distributionexpenses458524527597638Capexinvestments516606560560560Salesandmarketing12781407115113141404Acquisition111123---Administrativeexpensesexpenses399449442448478Others55222--Otheroperatingincome165150141141141Netcashfrinvestingact572731538560560Operatingprofits9371427126117531887Equityraised659263776--EBITDA15842139188323852571ChangeofDebts4848--Dividendpaid315374400500693Financecostsnet246---Others772181---Jointventures2332232828Netcashfrfinancingact4324641128500693Otherassociatesnon-recurringitems2840111Pre-taxprofit9081413128317801914Netchangeincash297708350956912Cashatthebeginningoftheyear8771264200716572613Incometax371432334463498Exchangedifference9035---LessMinorityinterests2331365054Cashattheendoftheyear12642007165726133525Netprofits51495091312671362Pluspledgedcash17----BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets1385713464123901324713123SalesmixFixedasset37163632318139213790AsiaPacificEast208180193197190Netintangiblesassets91258806822983468353AsiaPacificWest792820807803810Rightofuseassetsnet256251227227227Othernon-currentassets760775753753753PLratiosGrossprofitmargin520539500532535Currentassets23323161360638464822Operatingmargin168210195235237Cash12812007245826133525Pre-taxmargin162208198239240Accountreceivable367412414490523Netmargin92140141170171Inventory434473488498528Effectivetaxrate6664526262Othercurrentassets250269246246246BalancesheetratiosCurrentliabilities46374691441545684697Currentratiox0507080810Borrowings147123147147147Netreceivabledays2422232323Payables21122156201821712300Netpayabledays268243219219219Contractliabilities14491495140514051405Inventoryturnoverdays5955555252Payableswithparentco14274747474NetdebtequityratioNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashOthercurrentliabilities787843771771771ReturnsNon-currentliabilities809851748875875ROE49887183311271134Borrowings3753777777Dividendyieldnana121618Othernon-currentliabilities772798671798798PershareMinorityInterest587069119173EPSUS004007007010010DPSUS003003004005006Totalnetassets1074311083108331165012373BVPSUS081083081087092Shareholdersequity1068511013107641153112200EVEBITDAxnana211166151SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE33Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4