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>> 招商证券-信用市场日度跟踪:2月28日信用债异常成交跟踪-230228
上传日期:   2023/3/1 大小:   1081KB
格式:   pdf  共11页 来源:   招商证券
评级:   -- 作者:   尹睿哲,李豫泽
下载权限:   此报告为加密报告
根据Broker和CFETS数据源,成交高于估值个券中,“22洛阳城乡MTN001”与“23昆明交通SCP001”债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。低估值成交个券中,“20临安国控PPN001”估值价格偏离程度最大。卖价高于估值个券中,“19苏电05”估值价格偏离幅度最大。估值收益率高于8%的个券中,城投债排名靠前。
  城投债个券流动性评分最小值有所上升,均值有所下降。产业债个券流动性评分最小值有所上升,均值有所下降。成交估值偏离主要分布在[-5,0)区间。高估值信用债成交笔数占比有所下降,高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数占比有所下降。分行业看,医药生物行业净价偏离幅度最大。信用债平均成交期限有所上升,其中城投债的成交期限有所上升,产业债的成交期限有所下降。AAA城投债剩余期限均值环比上升幅度最大。永续债成交笔数下降。
  风险提示:统计出现遗漏,高估值个券出现信用风险。
研究报告全文:证券研究报告固定收益研究2023年2月28日2月28日信用债异常成交跟踪信用市场日度跟踪2023-2-28摘要根据Broker和CFETS数据源成交高于估值个券中22洛阳城乡MTN001与23昆明交通SCP001债券估值价格偏离幅度较大低估值成交个券中20临安国控PPN001估值价格偏离程度最大卖价高于估值个券中19苏电05估值价格偏离幅度最大估值收益率高于8的个券中城投债排名靠前城投债个券流动性评分最小值有所上升均值有所下降产业债个券流动性评分最小值有所上升均值有所下降成交估值偏离主要分布在-50区间高估值信用债成交笔数占比有所下降高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数占比有所下降分行业看医药生物行业净价偏离幅度最大信用债平均成交期限有所上升其中城投债的成交期限有所上升产业债的成交期限有所下降AAA城投债剩余期限均值环比上升幅度最大永续债成交笔数下降风险提示统计出现遗漏高估值个券出现信用风险尹睿哲S1090518110001yinruizhecmschinacomcn李豫泽S1090518080001liyuzecmschinacomcn敬请阅读末页的重要说明固定收益研究表1成交高于估值个券Broker数据源成交高于估值个券Broker数据源主体流剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益估值收益评级主当日成简称行业动性评年离元偏离bp率率体债项交笔数分22洛阳城乡MTN001258Y-04796191985480460AA城投A9293122岳阳建投MTN002456Y-0249622604452446AA城投A9330222义乌01448Y-0219715501400395AAAA城投S9824122烟台蓝天MTN002252Y-0209788838373365AAA城投A8873122宜春交通MTN001204Y-0199996973362352AAAA城投A8819118川发0197D2Y-018100475523320265AAAAAA城投A8803221平顶发展PPN001145Y-01799971218480468AA城投B7906118青城05265D5Y-011100721270330317AAAAAA城投S9850122两江01404Y-01110103260345342AAAAAA城投S9681122乌经开PPN002238Y-0109714470478473AA城投A9036121国药现代MTN001185Y-0109992548317312AAAAAA医药生物C5313222淮南建发MTN003239Y2Y-0099748443463459AA城投A9179220扬子G1216Y-0099968412325321AAAAAA城投A9252121国电02135Y-00910047593295289AAAAAA公用事业S9752322相城01185Y-0099961447344340AAAA城投A9467122国盛MTN002402Y-0089967223332330AAA城投S9639222黄发03131Y5Y-0089886602500494AA城投A9056122广晟01204Y2Y-00810042355318314AAA有色金属A9342119北排水MTN001155Y-00810137497299294AAAAAA城投A9042222常州投资MTN004204Y-0089982410345341AA城投A89871国电投07139Y-00810028512295290AAAAAA公用事业S9980322沪港务MTN002214Y-0089893398312308AAA交通运输A9183218粤海0120D5Y-008100088667339252AAAAAA城投A9469122冀通01204Y-0089991350322319AAAAAA城投C6826221杭钢01139Y-00710057468305300AAAAAA钢铁C6025122中车集MTN001190Y-0079952412307303AAA机械设备A9420321长电01170Y-00710006379300296AAAAAA公用事业S9922222广州控股MTN001273Y2Y-0079996275360357AAA城投S9598919新兴01138Y-00710123385304300AAAAAA钢铁B7639121北控集MTN003343Y-00710040207326324AAA城投A9143221宝钢MTN001可持续挂钩152Y-0079995452302297AAAAAA钢铁A8545122招商公路MTN001243Y-0079879293320317AAA交通运输A9207222成交01231Y-0069935262326323AAA城投A9002120中建材MTN003236Y-00610039280319316AAAAAA建筑材料A9377321淮南矿MTN005可持续挂钩128Y-00610101473305300AAA煤炭S9505121南航股MTN003173Y-00610021372307303AAA交通运输S9899321铁塔股份MTN002150Y-00610013415297293AAA通信C6496122特房01205Y2Y-00610004253385382AAAA城投D2650119川发03147Y-00610119303297294AAAAAA城投A8803122中煤集团MTN001A249Y-0069895251314311AAAAAA煤炭A94181资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明2固定收益研究表2成交高于估值个券CFETS数据源成交高于估值个券CFETS数据源主体流剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益估值收益评级主当日成简称票息行业动性评年离元偏离bp率率体债项交笔数分23昆明交通SCP001216D-2749711499871019520510AAA城投C5679221柳州东投PPN001334D-24392003129118011488795AA城投C5054423西咸新发PPN001187Y1Y-14799267153578507550AAA城投C6710223胶州城投PPN001347D2Y-140994612397552428532AA城投A9408217淄博资运MTN002165Y-123100497903510431544AAAA城投B7757922景德城投CP001235D-109977518080746565389AAA-1城投A8862322昆明公租SCP00148D-0959870719951462742500AA城投C5357223淄博城运MTN001298Y-092100003436540506540AAAAAA城投B7757220南部新城MTN001216Y-089100114450493448499AAAA城投A9170220崇左养老债422Y-08697804546811766698AAAA城投D3223221兰溪城投PPN002164Y-085100365532525469550AA城投B7373320淮南建发MTN003247D2Y-0841001414798496348503AAAA城投A9179222东莞交投MTN001190Y-08098744440360315290AAAAAA城投D4699323衡阳城投PPN001B299Y2Y-073100002721549522549AA城投S9841222泰兴城投PPN003241Y-07396143280547514373AA城投A8922323咸宁高新MTN001199Y1Y-072100003914558519558AA城投A8520122济源投资MTN003141Y1Y-0709821017606606526AA城投D4859423昆交投PPN001193Y-067100003857759720760AAA城投C5679223常城建MTN001499Y-067100001501390375390AAA城投S9714122溧水经开PPN004241Y-06496432856518489358AA城投S9623222靖江城投PPN001312D-062100747784525447620AA城投C6134223邵阳城投PPN001188Y3Y-05899531848651632640AA城投S9567123武夷投资MTN001B298Y-055100502082580559599AA城投A8937123濮阳投资SCP001263D-05499718223631549590AA城投B74841423金阳投资MTN001198Y-054100002955563533563AA城投A8871122华阳新材MTN001317D-054100306326412349450AAAAAA煤炭S9793121郑州经开MTN001155Y2Y-05499501844399380384AAAA城投B7815222水发集团CP002275D-05198807120718647560AA城投B83801122溧水产投MTN001232Y-05197732374489466384AA城投A8832223伊犁财通MTN001185Y-049100502808449420478AA城投A8953221威海城投MTN003158Y2Y-049100103643374338378AA城投B7763222邯郸交建PPN001200Y-04598712432494470425AA城投A9011223景国资SCP001262D-043100006128569508570AA城投C6168222泰达投资SCP011178D-0429755917811091017590AAA城投C57611623共享工业SCP001265D-042100005958599539599AA城投B7618121甘公投MTN002乡村振兴128Y-04197403473635600420AAA城投A8864223顺德控股MTN001299Y2Y-0419947732340332328AAAAAA城投D4286323山东公用CP001359D-039100004193589548590AAA-1城投C5279821赣州发展MTN002199Y1Y-038101424375389345440AAAAAA城投A9446321上饶城投MTN001116Y-03799593321480447444AAAA城投S97323资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明3固定收益研究表3成交低于估值个券成交低于估值个券剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益率估值收益率评级主主体流动当日成简称票息行业年离元偏离bp体债项性评分交笔数20临安国控PPN00116D2Y04510048-106297-767296370AA城投B7344122首创城发MTN001216Y2Y0309780-1464486501377AAAAAA城投A8786121华发集团MTN008139Y2Y02710024-2007415435435AAAAAA城投S9828122深航01199Y0209790-1087430441318AA交通运输B8418121湛江交投MTN001B340Y01810070-593394400417AAAA城投C6848122南浔交通PPN002152Y0189780-1180530542377AA城投C6712121启东G2124Y2Y01610056-1486341356390AAAA城投A8534220合投01256D2Y01610069-2280525548640AA城投A9024222金阳集团债01191Y4Y0159981-851520529510AAAA城投A8871122宁波鄞开PPN001212Y0149909-683385392340AA城投B7986120合建投MTN001413Y01310159-350325329367AAAAAA城投B8071122中化股MTN010465Y0139842-294342345305AAA石油石化S9971122太城F2258Y0139651-534475480329AA城投C6299222交子债245Y0129772-558424430325AA城投B7284122邯郸城投PPN001267Y2Y0129734-461432437325AA城投A8875121闽高速MTN008565Y01210221-240342344386AAA城投A9373122南安市贸MTN002233Y0129770-509476481370AA城投C6835116甘公投MTN002120D0129977-3277455488395AAAAAA城投A8864122华港05243Y2Y0119683-505460465320AAA城投A9232122泉州台商MTN002204Y0119891-522447452390AA城投A9428222晋江国资PPN002207Y0109939-527419424388AA城投A8652223桐乡城投MTN001299Y01010003-376372376373AA城投S9553121闽高速MTN006562Y01010225-212342344387AAA城投A9373120SZMC01416Y01010075-293326329346AAAAAA城投S9947421海润05167Y2Y01010021-712381388396AA城投A8889122滁城02207Y2Y0099969-527384389369AA城投S9647123蓉城轨交MTN002499Y0099995-201341343340AAA城投S9750122融盛01241Y0099732-423530534410AA城投A9274122杨浦科创MTN001244Y0099796-299384387295AAAA房地产B7031121晋江国资PPN003176Y0099995-513401406399AA城投A8652321抚投绿债02349Y2Y0089966-312453456441AAAA城投S9565122柯岩01267Y0089641-346505508359AA城投C5292122庐投01250Y0089644-361514518360AA城投B8270121中煤能源MTN001316Y00810179-286339342400AAA煤炭B8176119赣振02293D00810030-1233465477510AAAA城投C5978222湖南钢铁GN002224Y0089847-351342346270AAA钢铁B8295121湘高速MTN004乡村振兴345Y2Y00810101-245336338368AAAAAA城投S9953122龙城发展MTN002A216Y0089962-363348352330AAA城投S9712221齐河城投MTN001184Y2Y0079964-424400404380AAAAA城投C6424121龙川控股PPN001141Y00710045-554415421450AA城投A89201资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明4固定收益研究表4卖价高于估值个券卖价高于估值个券剩余期限估值价格偏抛售净价估值收益率偏卖价收益率评级主主体流动性简称票息行业年离元离bp体债项评分19苏电05120D-879760024009205268522730A商贸零售D133222浙兴合MTN001278Y2Y-81809999395450450AA商贸零售D390923连交01286Y-8177100006368579580AA城投A851323安经开MTN001285Y-802710000760719720AA城投B767220农投02199Y-7173101502381458540AAAAA城投D244920日照港PPN001199Y-71499783013405290AA城投A947120涪交0211D2Y-7055970596372610040550AAAA城投A854221信地01191Y1Y-698499993215514515AAAA房地产B813822绿城地产MTN001187Y-670494991674655362AAAAAA房地产B784821十堰国投PPN001135Y2Y-567669903170943603430AA城投A877921普洛斯MTN001105Y-45589098739491424440AAAAAA交通运输D406921GLP03102Y-45269298515851206437AAAAAA交通运输D406921GLP01331D-435896995913748398AAAAAA交通运输D406918瑞专债01196D5Y-36061005124373534648AAAA城投B731720延旅01186D2Y-3354100268459471538AA社会服务D284220荆州海投债44D4Y-1066999620473629630AAAA城投D356520泰顺02212D2Y-1049973955740951499AA-AAA城投D159120缙资01109D-103489923789724140496AAAA城投C648021潍经03158Y-10048935748571440650AAAA城投D229519绵控0233D1Y-814999811924527549AA城投A907421中南建设MTN001148D2Y-696459635196028016680AA房地产D125521工投03183Y2Y-5749255366041250776AA城投D216719津投27679Y-5347502104551040510AAAAAA城投S990619津投06600Y-446774395591020499AAAAAA城投S990621郴州产投PPN00118D1Y-44199986490699699AA城投D374318溧水经开MTN00116D2Y-4001000013009438446AAAA城投S962320临安国控PPN00116D2Y-399100014822344370AA城投B734419昆租02153Y2Y-3719190277511250645AAAA城投C535720滨城01226Y-3669248319931300650AAAA城投D125221玉开债132Y2Y-3569461303371150695AAAA城投D185522黔水01239Y2Y-3508869174551273700AA城投D143721西安建工MTN001147Y-3269044255781300550AAAA建筑装饰D446221潍滨02154Y-3259234242291300730AA城投D104920旭辉0190D2Y-279510024278737584380AAAAAA房地产C558920西苑0227D2Y-248998619566710580AAAAA城投D270823宏财01185Y-2478559163281750780AA城投D299620京宝0110D2Y-24399986129458464AA城投D69022东营02281Y2Y-232100469190600620AA城投C664721任兴06306D1Y-2289622301491210730AA城投D480821金地04310Y-228850785651013430AAAAAA房地产C5714资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明5固定收益研究表5估值收益率高于8以上的个券估值收益率高于8以上的个券剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益评级主体主体流动简称票息行业年离元偏离bp率债项性评分19津投06600Y-462773099071023499AAAAAA城投S990621GLP05107Y-4609300481271172440AAAAAA交通运输D406923昆明交通SCP001216D-2749711499871019510AAA城投C567921旭辉01103Y2Y-2503800-11271594631440AAAAAA房地产C558921柳州东投PPN001334D-2439200312911801795AA城投C505415远洋05264Y-156682076092178476AAAAAA房地产C615619秦投02302D3Y-1239800-2880811750AAAA城投D452720柳发01243D2Y-1009560-33514858670AAAA城投D414122昆明公租SCP00148D-0959870719951462500AA城投C535719中骏01154D-0899546218141736650AAAA房地产D323015远洋03247Y-088695045982227500AAAAAA房地产C615620崇左养老债422Y-08697804546811698AAAA城投D322321旭辉03198D2Y-0824100-20939834922390AAAAAA房地产C558920兴安债431Y-075902040721339800AAAA城投D321921碧地02129Y2Y-0748040-1095191238480AAAAAA房地产C545520旭辉0190D2Y-0695210-31185433971380AAAAAA房地产C558922泰达投资SCP011178D-042975591781109590AAA城投C576120远洋控股PPN00155D-0269680209142467335AAA房地产C615620昆交G2264Y-02180009781507540AAAAA城投D479522昆交产SCP002139D-019983354331120690AA城投D479520兰州城投PPN00358D-0199760142381950470AA城投D480420株洲金城PPN00245D-014998011046858750AA城投D491119巴中国资PPN001115Y-00794718001269750AA城投C537321腾越建筑MTN003165D2Y-0079220-143018831469AAAAA房地产C503621远洋02158Y2Y-0067900-934751153406AAAAAA房地产C615616渤水产16D-004996189501491750AAAA农林牧渔D363921柳州建投PPN001187D1Y-0049840-16570857745AA城投C502016唐金债16D-00399855013897650AAAA城投C519719泰达01363D-00396802101051698AAAAAA城投C576122昆明公租CP002165D-00398511911896580AAA-1城投C535721远洋01120Y2Y-0027900-1419081255420AAAAAA房地产C615621昆明公租PPN002164Y00093630831068630AA城投C535718远洋01155D00293551171999400AAAAAA房地产C615623泰达投资SCP004166D00398600631017698AAA城投C576119新城0120D0059980-8999853560AAAAAA房地产D474820兴安债431Y0069094-2821295800AAAA城投D321921通泰PPN001158Y0089800-554886750AA城投C543121新湖02163D2Y0179860-25872836775AAAAA房地产D367622乳山国运MTN002266Y0209474-855878650AA城投C522322惠民城建PPN003125Y3Y0229700-19502815730AA城投C5688资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明6固定收益研究图1个券流动性评分最小值图2个券流动性评分均值个券流动性评分均值MA5个券流动性评分最小值MA5以当日成交信用债为样本以当日成交信用债为样本城投-ave产业-ave城投-min产业-min6094509240903088208610840822214223822562271228262210272212222322222142238225622712282622102722122223222资料来源qeubee招商证券资料来源qeubee招商证券图3当日信用债成交估值偏离分布城投产业当日信用债成交估值偏离分布城投产业城投债成交笔数产业债成交笔数250200150100500-20-20-15-15-10-10-5-500055101015152020资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明7固定收益研究图4高估值信用债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图高估值信用债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图城投债高估值成交笔数产业债高估值成交笔数占当日信用债成交总笔数比例MA5右轴600403550030400成交笔数25高估值占比300201520010100500221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623215资料来源qeubee招商证券图5高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图AA城投债高估值成交笔数地产债高估值成交笔数非城投占当日信用债成交总笔数比例MA5右轴704603503高估值占比成交笔数40230220110100221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623215资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明8固定收益研究图6各行业产业债成交偏离价均值及成交笔数各行业产业债成交偏离价均值及成交笔数净价偏离-ave右轴成交笔数左轴300060042500220000002150041000600850100医药生物机械设备公用事业建筑装饰食品饮料商贸零售有色金属建筑材料钢铁综合交通运输通信国防军工煤炭基础化工房地产农林牧渔汽车电力设备石油石化012资料来源qeubee招商证券图7信用债成交期限变化信用债成交期限变化MA5信用债总加权剩余期限年城投债加权剩余期限年产业债加权剩余期限年302520151005221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623215资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明9固定收益研究图8分等级信用债剩余期限均值环比变化时间序列图分等级信用债剩余期限均值环比变化时间序列图MA5AAA城投年AA城投年AA城投年AAA产业年AA产业年AA产业年15100500051015211231222142232122425226122772281122916221026221130231523214资料来源qeubee招商证券图9永续债成交总笔数及高估值成交情况永续债成交总笔数及高估值成交情况AAA城投高估值成交笔数AA城投高估值成交笔数AAA产业高估值成交笔数AA产业高估值成交笔数永续债成交总笔数MA511010090807060504030201002214222152232322428226822713228172292222113221282311323224资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明10固定收益研究分析师承诺负责本研究报告的每一位证券分析师在此申明本报告清晰准确地反映了分析师本人的研究观点本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与现在不与未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐或观点直接或间接相关尹睿哲中国人民大学金融学博士研究生IMI国际货币研究所研究员2018年加入招商证券现任招商证券研发中心首席债券分析师李豫泽同济大学产业经济学硕士2017年加入招商证券现任招商证券研发中心债券分析师曾为新财富水晶球金牛奖固收团队成员招商证券债券信用评分符号和定义等级符号定义A3偿债主体还债务的能力极强基本不受不利经济环境的影响信用风险极低投资A2偿债主体偿还债务的能力很强受不利经济环境的影响较小信用风险很低档A1偿债主体偿还债务的能力较强较易受不利经济环境的影响信用风险较低B3偿债主体偿还债务的能力一般受不利经济环境影响较大信用风险一般B2偿债主体偿还债务的能力较弱受不利经济环境影响很大有较高信用风险投B1偿债主体偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境信用风险很高机档C3偿债主体偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境信用风险极高C2偿债主体在破产或重组时可获得保护较小基本不能保证偿还债务C1偿债主体不能偿还债务注债项符号含义与主体符号含义一致重要声明本报告由招商证券股份有限公司以下简称本公司编制本公司具有中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格本报告基于合法取得的信息但本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证本报告所包含的分析基于各种假设不同假设可能导致分析结果出现重大不同报告中的内容和意见仅供参考并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价在任何情况下本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议除法律或规则规定必须承担的责任外本公司及其雇员不对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失负任何责任本公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中所提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易还可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行业务服务客户应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突版复制引用或转载否则本公司将保留随时追究其法律责任的权利敬请阅读末页的重要说明11
 
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