研究报告全文：MN24Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAlibabaBABAUSOperatingefficiencyimprovementontrackTargetPriceUS15550Alibabaannounced23Febits3QFY23Marchyear-endresultstotalrevenuePreviousTPUS15600wasRMB2478bnup2YoY1aheadofbothourforecastandBloombergUpDownside641consensusmainlyduetobetterthanexpecteddirectsalesandinternationalcommercerevenuegenerationDrivenbysustainedoperatingefficiencyCurrentPriceUS9478improvementacrossbusinesslinesnon-GAAPnetincomegrew12YoYtoChinaInternetRMB499bn1312aheadofourestimateconsensusRegardinginvestmentstrategyforChinaretailbusinessin2023managementhighlightedthreekeySaiyiHECFAfocusingpoints1enhanceuserstickinessandtimespend2enhancevalue85239161739hesaiyicmbicomhkformoneypropositionand3enhanceneighbourhooddigitalretailbusinessdeploymentManagementispositiveonbusinessrecoveryin2023andguidedYeTAOtoinvestfordrivingbettergrowthwithoperatingefficiencymindsetOurSOTPfranktaocmbicomhkbasedTPwastrimmedtoUS1555consideringmixedimpactfromabeatin3QFY23resultsandpotentialinvestmenttodrivelong-termgrowthWentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhkGapbetweenCMRandChinaretailmarketplaceGMVgrowthisnarrowingAlibabageneratedrevenueofRMB913bnfromitscustomerSophieHUANGmanagementrevenueCMRin3QFY23down9YoYandequivalenttosophiehuangcmbicomhk369oftotalrevenueowingtomid-single-digitYoYdeclineinonlinephysicalgoodsGMVgeneratedonTaobaoandTmallManagementEasonXUhighlightedanarrowingdowntrendbetweenGMVandCMRgrowthineasonxucmbicomhk4QFY23duetothedeclineinreturnrateaidedbyrecoveryinfulfilmentpostStockDatapandemicimpactInadditionalthoughpandemicandCNYholidayMktCapUSmn2583796disruptionsweighedonrecoveryofGMVgrowthinJanandearlyFebweAvg3mthstoUSmn998expectGMVgrowthtoturnpositiveinMardrivenbythephaseoutof52wHighLowUS122396315disruptingfactorsandrecoveryinmerchantsentimentandforecast-45TotalIssuedSharesmn27261SourceFactSetYoYgrowthforCMRfor4QFY23EOperatingefficiencyimprovementacrossbusinesslinessustainedinShareholdingStructure3QFY23ThoughhighmarginCMRbusinessisseeingpersistentheadwindSoftBank239SourceHKExin3QadjustedEBITAforChinacommercegrew1YoYtoRMB586bnaidedbylossreductionsfromTaobaoDealsFreshippoandTaocaicaiSharePerformanceAdjustedEBITAlossfrominternationalcommercelocalconsumerservicesAbsoluteRelativedigitalmediaandentertainmentnarrowedbyRMB22bn19bn13bnYoY1-mth-209-233in3QFY23OveralladjustedEBITAgrewby16YoYtoRMB538bnand3-mth2472136-mth53134adjustedEBITAmarginwas210up25ppYoY14ppbetterthanourSourceFactSetforecastOperatingefficiencyimprovementcouldsustainin4QFY23whileAlibabaremainscommittedtoinvesttosupportforlong-termdevelopment12-mthPricePerformancePubliccloudafocusareafordrivinglong-termcloudrevenuegrowthCloudcomputingbusinessrevenuegrewby3YoYtoRMB202bnin3QFY23amongwhichrevenuefromnon-internetindustrieswasup9YoYandcontributedto53ofoverallcloudrevenue3QFY2252Managementnotedadecentrecoveryonclouddemandforinternetindustriesin3QFY23andguidedtoensurestabilityandsecurityfeatureofitscloudservicesandenhancetechnologicalcapabilitytodrivethelong-SourceFactSettermgrowthofitscloudbusinessEarningsSummaryYE31MarFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn7172898530628772649802441072446YoYgrowthna1892811794NetprofitRMBmn150578062249063171811858991304631AdjustednetprofitRMBmn17895401435150140963216270091776507EPSAdjustedRMB66225326522660266573ConsensusEPSRMB66225326530153286044PEx301463279149135ROEna65619996SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Feb2023KeybusinesssegmentupdateCloudcomputing81of3QFY23revenueRevenuefromcloudcomputingbusinessgrewby3YoYtoRMB202bnin3QFY233shyofourforecastandaccountedfor81oftotalrevenueThegrowthwasmainlydrivenbyhealthydoubledigitpubliccloudrevenuegrowthbutpartiallyoffsetbydeclininghybridcloudrevenueasAlibabacontinuestodrivehigh-qualityrecurringrevenuegrowthManagementhighlightedthatrevenuegrowthfromnon-internetindustrieswas9YoYandcontributedto53ofoverallcloudrevenuewhilerevenuegrowthfromcustomerininternetindustrydeclinedby4YoYnarrowedfrom18YoYdeclinein2QFY23AdjustedEBITAmarginforthecloudsegmentwas18in3QFY233QFY2207Internationalcommerce79of3QFY23revenueIn3QFY23revenuefromtheinternationalcommercesegmentwasRMB195bnup18YoYwithinwhichretailandwholesalerecordedrevenueofRMB14648bnYoYchangesof260respectivelyForretailbusinesstherevenuegrowthwasprimarilyduetoanincreaseinrevenuecontributedbyTrendyoldrivenbyrobustYoYordergrowthandmoreefficientuseofsubsidiesTheadjustedEBITAmarginfortheinternationalcommercesegmentwas-39in3QFY233QFY22-177whichcouldbeattributabletoreducedlossesfromLazadaandTrendyolCainiaoLogistics67of3QFY23revenueRevenuefromCainiaoLogisticsrose27YoYin3QFY23accountingfor67oftotalrevenuedrivenbyincreaseinrevenuefromdomesticconsumerlogisticsservicesasaresultofservicemodelupgradesincelate2021wherebyCainiaotakesonmoreresponsibilitiesthroughoutthelogisticsprocesstobetterservecustomersandenhancecustomerexperienceaswellastheincreaseinrevenuefrominternationalfulfilmentsolutionservicesAdjustedEBITAforCainiaowaslossofRMB12mnin3QFY23withalossmarginof-013QFY22-07Figure1Alibababreakdownoffinancialsofkeybusinesssegments3QFY23InnovationLocalDigitalmediainitiativesChinaInternationalconsumerandandRMBmncommercecommerceservicesCainiaoCloudentertainmentothersUnallocatedConsolidatedRevenue169986194651316416553201797586823na247756Incomelossfromoperations5312716615473983149510241933552735031AddShare-basedcompensationexpense239086994271718485224879988773AddAmortizationofintangibleassets31102913942543477211525530AddImpairmentofgoodwill27142714AdjustedEBITA58627763313712356251235176352048AdjustedEBITAmargin345-39-238-0118-03-1501na210SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Feb2023Figure2Alibababreakdownoffinancialsofkeybusinesssegments3QFY22InnovationLocalDigitalmediainitiativesChinaInternationalconsumerandandRMBmncommercecommerceservicesCainiaoCloudentertainmentothersUnallocatedConsolidatedRevenue1719011644912466130781953981131034na242580Incomelossfromoperations5455837077733987213721392434283537068AddShare-basedcompensationexpense27407691158639226756660810299776AddAmortizationofintangibleassets5802114992564199217612837AddImpairmentofgoodwill2514125141AdjustedEBITA57878291750769213413741609212244822AdjustedEBITAmargin337-177-407-0707-169-1556na185SourceCompanydataCMBIGMRevisionofforecastandvaluationFigure3AlibabaforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue8773980210724874898081074803-01-02GrossProfit31583548389331493560390103-03-02Non-GAAPnetprofit14101627177714091643178601-10-05GrossMargin36036236336036336300ppt-01ppt00pptNon-GAAPnetmargin16116616616116816600ppt-02ppt-01pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue877398021072487629760107540104-03GrossProfit315835483893319535964012-12-13-30Non-GAAPnetprofit14101627177713781631187023-02-50GrossMargin360362363365368373-05ppt-06ppt-10pptNon-GAAPnetmargin16116616615716717403ppt-01ppt-08pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesValuationtargetpriceofUS1555perADSOurSOTP-basedtargetpriceisUS1555perADSandtranslatesinto181xFY24EPE1US1040previousUS1041perADSforBABAscorecommercebusinessexcludingcloudlocalconsumerservicesandCainiaobasedonaDCFvaluationWACCof117andterminalgrowthof22US251previousUS254perADSforthecloudbusinessbasedona60xPSmultipleonFY23ErevenueThe60xPSmultipleislargelyinlinewiththatofcomparablepeersat58xfor2022EPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Feb20233US65previousUS65perADSforCainiaobasedonthetransactioninthemostrecentroundoffinancingandAlibabas63shareholding4US51previousUS52perADSforlocalconsumerservicesbasedona20xPSonFY23revenueThe20xPSimpliesadiscounttothecurrenttrading2022EPSof35xforMeituanasElemehasarelativelylowermarketshare5US148previousUS149perADSforstrategicinvestmentwith30holdingdiscountFigure5AlibabaSOTPvaluationTargetValuationValuationperADSAsoftotalBusinessMethodPSUSmnUSvaluationCorebusinessex-cloudCainiaoandlocalconsumerservicesDCF2836011040669Lastroundfinancingvaluation63Cainiaoshareholding176646542PSbasedonLocalconsumerservicesFY23revenue20138425133PSbasedonAlibabaCloudFY23revenue6068460251162Marketvaluation30holdingdiscountappliedStrategicinvestmentstoallinvestment4031314895Total4238801555SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure6CloudcomputingpeersvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerPriceRevenuegrowthYoYPSxUS2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EMicrosoftMSFTUS251511484115928576GoogleGOOGUS9189217574504340SalesforceCRMUS1634173101120534843Average655853SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasof22Feb2023Figure7FooddeliverypeersvaluationcompsCompaniesTickerRevenuegrowthYoYPSx2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024EMeituan3690HK140270245352722DoorDashDASHUS333218178342824DeliveryHeroDHERGR207227218121008JustEatTakeawayTKWYNA1256397080707Average221815SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataasof22Feb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnRevenuena7172898530628772649802441072446Costofgoodssoldna421205539450561449625396683148Grossprofitna296084313612315815354848389298Operatingexpensesna206406243974217035234278253634SGAexpensena136743151721144749160760174273RDexpensena5723655465558826273667564Othersna1242736788164051078311797Operatingprofitna896786963898780120570135664Interestincomena72794157021930078428580Interestexpensena44764909579058816220Otherincomeexpensena758210523614168625898Pre-taxprofitna1655785955079831129392143922Incometaxna2927826815151683040735981Othersna69841434485091176313942Aftertaxprofitna1432844707956154110748121884Minorityinterestna729415170701878428580Netprofitna1505786224963172118590130463Adjustednetprofitna178954143515140963162701177651BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnCurrentassetsna643360638535695473808118933557Cashequivalentsna321262189898258609356479468975Restrictedcashna3520737455374553745537455Prepaymentna124708145995134221148997161939FinancialassetsatFVTPLna162183265187265187265187265187Non-currentassetsna10468581057018109379611811711262910PPEna147412171806213849245883271298InvestmentinJVsassosna200189219642230586261801295196Intangiblesna708335923199148119519138877Goodwillna292771269581269581269581269581FinancialassetsatFVTPLna237221223611223611223611223611Othernon-currentassetsna98432113147570226077564347Totalassetsna16902181695553178926919892892196467Currentliabilitiesna377358383784342577393298436788Short-termborrowingsna3606884192021025011196Taxpayablena2527521753142582675830583Othercurrentliabilitiesna87337817308225691624100085Accruedexpensesna261140271460236861264666294923Non-currentliabilitiesna229226229576205806211028217442Long-termborrowingsna3833538244382443824437407Deferredincomena31583490363240464420Othernon-currentliabilitiesna187733187842163930168738175616Totalliabilitiesna606584613360548383604327654230Sharecapitalna11111Capitalsurplusna394308410506520479553808589198Retainedearningsna554924563557626729745319875782Otherreservesna309015930233642336423364Totalshareholdersequityna946143958134112384512757631441617Minorityinterestna137491124059117041109199100619Totalequityandliabilitiesna16902181695553178926919892892196467PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE524Feb2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxationna1655785955079831129392143922Depreciationamortizationna4790948065320003266241076Taxpaidna2927826815151683040735981Changeinworkingcapitalna502971815012613258829868Othersna272080109353383710738803Netcashfromoperationsna231786142759133262201342217689InvestingCapitalexpenditurena414503412438649015362Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestmentsna173515311543115431154Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-termna114826106984000investmentsOthersna8618388181668256846568786Netcashfrominvestingna244194198592102366104521105302FinancingNetborrowingsna320080000Proceedsfromshareissuesna175109000Sharerepurchasesna77361225000Othersna132833333611048109Netcashfromfinancingna30082644493611048109NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyearna345982356469227353258609356479Exchangedifferencena71878834000Cashattheendoftheyearna356469227353258609356479468975GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarRevenuenana1892811794Grossprofitnana590712497Operatingprofitnana223418221125Netprofitnana58715877100Adjnetprofitnana1981815492PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarGrossprofitmarginna413368360362363Operatingmarginna12582113123127Adjnetprofitmarginna249168161166166ReturnonequityROEnana65619996GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarNetdebttoequityxna0404040404Currentratioxna1717202121VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31MarPEna301463279149135PEdilutedna306468282150137PBna4930161412PCFPSna2422091389184SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE624Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7