研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary23Feb2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报CSCHCNWorkingonnewsyndicatedloansofatleastRMB3bnAthigh80-low90wecontinuetoseeupside7-10ptsassumingfairyieldof10-12GlennKoCFA高志和asitsfundingaccessisgraduallynormalizedWealsoconsider85236576235CSCHCN24sgoodyieldpick-uptradesoverLGFVsofhighertiercitiesYTMglennkocmbicomhkof5-6SeebelowCOGARDMediareportedthatCogardexpectstoissueanotheruptoCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩RMB2bnCBICL-guaranteednotesinMar23COGARDsrose075-175pts85239000801thismorningcyrenangcmbicomhkNWSZFNWSacquires90ofSuzhoulogisticspropertyvaluedatRMB570mfromGreenlandHoldingGroupNWSZFsupc025ptbymid-dayJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiacreditspacehadaverybusydayThemarketopenedinacautioustone5-10bpswiderafterweakeningovernightmacrosentimentbutwesawshortcoveringacrossspacesintoafternoonNewissuesBOCOMSHCMBKoutperformedtightened8-20bpsBOCOM3ypaperswerechasedbybankaccountsgiventhehigherall-inyieldandclosed8bpstighteratT20levelSHCMBK10NC5pricedatT240andweresqueezedtoT230levelunderPBaccountschasingbeforelunchIntheafternoonthiswasfirstsqueezedtoT217levelthenclosedatT220areabyEODOnsecondaryflowspreadswere5-15bpswidertostartasRMsoldhighbetaTMTnamesalsosomeKorealowbetapaperslikeKHFCKDBEIBKORTMTspaceopened5-8bpswiderbutlargelyrecoveredfromtheintradaywideunderawaveofsqueezinginthePMsessionBenchmarkpaperslikeBABA31sTENCNT30sclosedatT135T160levelrespectivelyonly1-3bpswiderthanTuesdaycloseWhilehigh-betaTMTslikeLENOVO30sremainedtobebetterofferedandwidened5bpstoatT255levelOverallflowsremainedbalancedChinaSOEslikeHOAHUAwereunderbetterbuyingInfinancialssentimentturnedstrongerasstreettriedtopushAMCspaceCCAMCL29sORIEAS29swereunderbetterbuyingandremainedlargelyfirmatcurrentT180andT240levelsrespectivelyWesawsmallsellingonfront-endCCAMCLsbutwerewellabsorbedBankT2spaceperformedwellamidonshorebuyingandCCBsBCHINAT2swere3-5bpstighterLeasingnameBOCAVI30stightened3bpstoT125levelHKKorealow-betapaperswerebetterbidandedged1-3bpstighterInIGpropertiesLNGFORsgothitandweremarkeddown05ptChineseHYpropertybondsstillperformedmixedCOGARDswereunchangedto05pthigherasmediareporteditplannedtoissueanotheruptoRMB2bnCBICL-guaranteednotesnextmonthwithFoshanLGFVtoprovidesupportCSCHCNsjumped6-9ptstohigh-80sonthebackofthearrangementatleastRMB3bn3YdomesticloanCHINSC23sweremarked1pthigherat84levelwithPBbuyingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk123Feb2023AGILEswereup05-1ptOntheotherhandSINOCEsCHINSCsCIFIHGslowered05-15ptsIndustrialnamesHONGQIsFOSUNIsdrifted025ptlowerunderactivetwo-wayflowsfromRMsMacaugamingnamesMPELsSTCITYsWYNMACsweremarked1-2ptshigherInIndianspaceAdanicomplexbondsweretraded05-15ptsloweracrossthecurveVEDLNsandrenewableswerequoteddown025-05ptIndonesiannameswerequietexceptLMRTSPswereup3-4ptsfollowingmediareportedLMIRTwasintalkswithrelationshipbankstorefinanceupcomingloanmaturitiesofSGD2175mnUSD1624mnandthetrustisfocusingonrefinancingitsSTloansfirstElsewhereGLPCHIsGLPSPsmoved05-15ptslowerInthePerpsAsiaAT1LGFVspacestoneremainedfairlyweakdespitesomeshortcoveringintoandafternoonInSOEPerpsandLGFVswesaw6papersswitchedoutandbeingunwoundfromstructuredproductsinlightofrisingfundingcostsaspotentialbuyersre-calibratedvalueandstayedcautiousSOEperpswere0125-025ptlowerwithactivetwo-wayflowson2324callpapersHUADIAHAOHUAperpsdrifted0125ptlowerNon-SOEPerpswereanother1ptloweronaverageasFFLpapersremainedheavyNANFUNsdropped2-3ptsNWDEVLperpsweredown05ptInAT1squalitynamesstabilizedonthebackofsomeshortcoveringAT1sopened0125-0375ptlowerintheAMsessionandrebounded025ptinthePMsessionICBCAS32Perplowered025ptOnthenewissuefrontGZUIHG7726loweredby05ptswherebuyinginterestsemergedanditfoundsupportat99259975levelWhilstKNMIDI9825wasfirmandquietthankstoseeminglystrongholdingpowerfromprimaryinvestorsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeCSCHCN906262490691NANFUN5PERP780-33CSCHCN907202489383PEAKRN535PERP878-21CSCHCN912112487073NWDEVL418071829825-20CSCHCN910092486765NANFUN5090528935-20CSCHCN904122490462NANFUN378100327900-20MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsremainedweakyesterdaySP-016Dow-026andNasdaq013wereaffectedbyhawkishFOMCminuteinwhichallmeetingattendeessaidtofurtherriseinterestrateuntilinflationsubstantiallydecreaseTheUStreasuryyieldsslightlydownyesterday251030yieldsreached466413393394respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点CSCHCNWorkingonnewsyndicatedloansofatleastRMB3bnMaintainBuyonCSCHCN24sAsperourdiscussionswithChinaSouthCityitisworkingonsyndicatedloansofatleastRMB3bntobeclosedin2Q23Theloanswillbeonasecuredbasisandwillhaveatenorof3yearsThenewloanswillmainlybeusedtorefinancemoreexpensiveloanssuchasthosefromAMCsTheexpectedfundingcostofthesyndicatedloanswillbe55-6On17Feb23ChinaSouthCitydisclosedthatLocalFinancialRegulatoryBureauofShenzhenMunicipalitywascoordinatingwith15banksincludingABCBOCBOCOMCCBCMBandICBCtoprovidesyndicatedloanstothecompanyThesyndicatedloanswillhelpcutitsinterestexpensesbyRMB300-400mnThegrossinterestexpensesofChinaSouthCityinFY22wascRMB3bnSeparatelytheequityinjectionofRMB5bnbySZCDGintoXianChinaSouthCityisontrackThetimingforinstalmentpaymentswillbeRMB2bninMar23andRMB3bninMayJun23DespitetheequityinjectionwillbeatXianChinaSouthCityleveltheusesofproceedsincludeRMB286bnfortherepaymentofrelatedparty223Feb2023loansThismeansthatChinaSouthCitywillbeabletoupstreamcashofRMB286bntoholdcoleveluponthecompletionofequityinjectionCSCHCN24swere6-9ptshigheryesterdayandwerelargelystablethismorningAsdiscussedweconsiderChinaSouthCityoneofthesurvivorsofthesectorinviewofthestate-ownershipandSZCDGsdemonstratedwillingnessandabilitytoprovidefinancialandothersupportsEvenaftertrading18-25ptshigherYTDCSCHCN24sarestillingtradingatanappealingYTMof16-19atcashpricesofhigh80-low90SeetableaboveWecontinuetoseeroomforupside7-10ptsassumingfairyieldof10-12asitsfundingaccessisgraduallynormalizedWealsoconsiderCSCHCN24sgoodyieldpick-uptradesovertheLGFVsofhighertiercitiesYTMof5-6Formoredetaileddiscussionspleasereadourcommentson19Dec22andAsiaCreditOutlookOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFCICC12503yr5493T110Baa1--OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere101creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB98bnAsformonth-to-date964creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB919bnraisedrepresentinga198yoyincreaseMediareportedthatChinaurgesSOEstostopworkingwithbigfouraccountingfirmsBEIPROBeijingPropertiesplanstosell50ofTianjinBeijingInlandPortthroughpublictenderonCBEXwithinitialminimumpriceofRMB146mncUSD212mnCHFOTNChinaFortuneLandschedulesbondputoptionexerciseofRMB1bn19Huaxia01from27Febto1MarCOGARDMediareportedthatCogardexpectstoissueanotheruptoRMB2bnCBICL-guaranteednotesinMar23EDUNewOrientalEducationTechnologyrepurchasedUSD285147mofEDU2125070225sinceNov21JIAYUAJiayuanInternationalmissespaymentonJIAYUA1375021823onmaturitydateLMRTSPLMIRTintalkswithrelationshipbankstorefinanceupcomingloanmaturitiesofSGD2175mncUSD1624mnMONMINFitchaffirmedMongolianMiningratingatBandplacednegativeoutlook323Feb2023NWSZFNWSacquires90ofSuzhoulogisticspropertyvaluedatRMB570mfromGreenlandHoldingGroupPOLYREPolyPropertyGroupproposestoofferuptoRMB2bncorporatebondstorepaydebtsboostworkingcapitalSINOCESino-OceanGroupcompletesSino-OceanTaikooLiChengdustakedisposalCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereport423Feb2023isdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5