库存
　　上周PVC上游去库0.52万吨，同比增加266%，社会库存累库0.26万吨，同比增加88%，PVC库存压力仍大。

研究报告全文：银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年01月03日银河能化微信公众号概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PVC上游去库052万吨同比增加266社会库存累库026万吨同比增加88PVC库存压力仍大2022年12月PVC产量17885万吨环比增加89同比下降372022年PVC产量2199万吨同比下降083上周PVC开工率环比产量上升265个百分点至7596其中电石法开工环比上升17个百分点乙烯法开工环比上升602个百分点电石电石开工8102环比下降012个百分点兰炭兰炭开工5623环比持平11月PVC粉出口845万吨环比下降126同比下降264累计同比增长17811月PVC进口42万吨环比增加429同比增加198累计同比下降2323进出口2023年1月4日台塑公布2月预售报价环比上涨70-90美元吨CFR印度930美元吨FOB至东南亚875美元吨FOB东北亚至越南840美元吨上周PVC生产企业对外出口签单环比增加至8万余吨待交付量增至21万吨货源交付量增加至5万吨本周期价格维持在810-870美元吨FOB实单商谈外盘价格1月4日当周外盘价格稳中有涨东南亚价格上涨60美元吨至880美元吨印度价格上涨30美元吨至930美元吨其他价格基本持稳11月PVC消费1664万吨环比下降6同比下降199累计同比下降3需求11月PVC地板出口3428万吨环比增加479同比下降2559累计同比下降93上周下游制品企业开工率在3810环比减少611同比减少505型材开机率在3125环比减少375同比减少663成本利润电石利润下降50元吨至-31元吨山东外购电石法利润下降190元吨至-1096元吨氯碱一体化利润下降290元吨至-700元吨观点PVC库存整体高位波动库存压力仍大开工回升需求走弱加上新装置投产短期价格偏空GALAXYFUTURES1期现价差PVC05季节性PVC05PVC常州SG-5合约持仓量130001600012000700110006001400010000500120009000400800030010000700020060008000500010060004000005206207208209201020112012201202203204201121314151617181911011111214000PVC1705PVC1805PVC1905PVC200520142015201620172018112131415161718191101111121PVC2105PVC2205PVC23052019202020212022201720182019202020212022PVC05基差PVC1-5价差PVC5-9价差3000160080014002500120060020001000400800150060020010004002000500020002007483926440052061971981810211112191711161216123150010179201051020114111912412191311822217343194341853520620720820920102011201220120220320420PVC1801-PVC1805PVC1901-PVC1905PVC2001-PVC2005PVC1605-PVC1609PVC1705-PVC1709PVC1805-PVC1809PVC1905-PVC1909PVC2005-PVC2009PVC2105-PVC2109PVC1905PVC2005PVC2105PVC2205PVC2305PVC2101-PVC2105PVC2201-PVC2205PVC2301-PVC2305PVC2205-PVC2209PVC2305-PVC2309资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES2利润兰炭利润电石利润西北外购电石PVC生产利润1400300030001200250020001000200080010006001500400100002005000-1000-2000-2000-400-500-600-3000112131415161718191101111121-1000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820152016201720182015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022西北自产电石法生产利润山东外购电石法PVC生产利润山东氯碱一体化利润4000300040003000200030002000100020001000010000-10000-1000-2000-1000-2000-3000-2000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820152016201720182015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES3利润华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润华东进口VCM法生产利润PVC出口东南亚利润电石法1000060005009000500040080004000300700030002006000200010050001000040000-10030002000-1000-2001000-2000-3000-3000-400-1000-4000-50011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120152016201720182015201620172018201620172018201920192020202120222019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES4库存PVC上游库存PVC上游预售PVC仓单700080120060007010006050008005040004060030003040020002020010001000000001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212011201220132014201520162019202020212022202020212022201720182019202020212022PVC社会库存华东华南卓创PVC华东社会库存卓创PVC华南社会库存卓创50003500180045001600300040001400350025001200300020001000250080020001500600150010001000400500500200000000000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182014201520162017201820142015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PVC新增产能PVC2022-2023年新装置企业产能工艺投产时间内蒙宜化5电石法2022年1月天津大沽80乙烯法2022年1月40万吨4月40万吨德州实华20姜钟法2022年5月青岛海湾20乙烯法2022年9月聚隆化工40乙烯法2022年6月29日投产11月有量销售广西华谊氯碱化工40乙烯法2022年11月27日后试车山东信发40电石法2022年11月21日试车2022年合计245金泰化学30电石法2023年6月试车万华化学福建一期40乙烯法2023年年中试车镇洋发展30乙烯法2023年下半年2023年合计100资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6产量开工PVC产量季节性PVC粉开工率电石法PVC粉开工率210900095002009000850019018085008000170800016075007500150700014070001306500650012012345678910111260006000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022乙烯法PVC粉开工率电石开工与PVC开工率9500950900090085008508000800750075070070006506500600600055055005000112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022电石开工率电石法PVC开工率资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES7分项开工资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES8电石乌海电石山东电石900090008000800070007000600060005000500040004000300030002000200010001000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202020212022电石利润电石开工率3000950025009000200085001500800010007500500700006500-5006000-1000112131415161718191101111121550050002015201620172018112131415161718191101111121112019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES9兰炭兰炭市场价中料神木精煤块价格385018003350160014002850120023501000185080013506004008502003500112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201620172018201920152016201720182020202120222019202020212022兰炭利润兰炭开工率1400070120006510000608000556000504002000450040-200035-400030-60002511213141516171819110111112102020152016201720181121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES10外盘PVC外盘投产PVC外盘价格企业国家产能工艺投产时间2400韩华韩国13乙烯法2020年Q12200Engro巴基斯坦10乙烯法2020年Q3信越美国29乙烯法2020年2000Inovyn欧洲20乙烯法2020年1800Inovyn欧洲12乙烯法2020年1600Shintech美国29乙烯法2020年14002020年合计1131200台塑美国14乙烯法2021年年底10002021年合计14800Sulfindo印尼265乙烯法2022年上半年600已于2022年3月份启动Anyer新增的年产20Asahimas印尼20乙烯法万吨PVC工厂外采氯乙烯EGA阿联酋20乙烯法2022年2021112021212021312021412021512021612021712021812021912022112022212022312022412022512022612022712022812022912023112021101202111120211212022101202211120221212022年合计665西北欧离岸价东南亚CFR中国CFR美国海湾FAS印度CFR资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES11台塑预售报价台塑-CFR印度台塑-CFR中国20001800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023台塑-FOB东北亚至东南亚台塑-FOB东北亚至越南1800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES12进出口PVC出口季节性PVC进口季节性305202827182551622221420512181015514138111161051084552012345678910111205123456789101112201420152016201720182017201820192020202120222019202020212022PVC净进口季节性PVC出口东南亚利润电石法20500400103002000100870-101010-100151119-200-20222524-300-30-400123456789101112-5001121314151617181911011111212014201520162017201820162017201820192019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES13需求PVC需求季节性200190180170160150140130120123456789101112201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES14制品出口PVC铺地制品出口PVC制品出口PVC铺地制品-出口至美国60007000400050006000350050003000400025004000300020003000200015002000100010001000500000000000123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES15房地产房地产数据30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值一线城市1200010000700180800016060060001404000500120200010000040080-200030060-400040-60002002010002014-022017-022020-022014-102015-022015-062015-102016-022016-062016-102017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062014-061121314151617181911011111210商品房销售面积累计同比房屋新开工面积累计同比11213141516171819110111112120172018201920202021房屋竣工面积累计同比本年购置土地面积累计同比2017201820192020202120222022202320242025房屋施工面积累计同比30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值二线城市30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值三线城市400250350200300250150200100150100505000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212017201820192020202120222023202420252022202320242025资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES16周琴能化投资研究部从业资格号F3076447投资咨询从业证书号Z0015943电话021-65789376电邮zhouqinqhchinastockcomcn上海市虹口区东大名路501号上海白玉兰广场28层28thFloorNo501DongDaMingRoadSinarMasPlazaHongkouDistrictShanghaiChina全国统一客服热线400-886-7799公司网址wwwyhqhcomcn银河期货微信公众号下载银河期货APP