PTA
　　上游PX新装置投产，PTA基差走弱，现货加工费抬升，供应端PTA开工率环比回升，桐昆嘉通新装置计划提负，供应仍有增加预期，下游聚酯开工下滑，织机加弹印染开工延续回落，近期供需面驱动向下，在成本走弱的情况下价格有下行压力。
　　MEG
　　供应方面，国内部分EO/EG联产装置回切EG，新装置方面盛虹炼化另一套乙二醇装置以及海南炼化共180万吨乙二醇新装置计划年后投产，乙二醇供应预期上升。需求方面，下游聚酯开工率季节性回落，产销转淡，中期来看，供需走弱的预期下仍有累库压力，乙二醇价格仍将承压。
　　PF
　　疫情影响近期纺纱厂开机率大幅下滑，临近元旦部分纺企计划放假，短纤产销维持弱势，供需走弱下短纤加工费预计维持偏低水平，价格有下行压力。

研究报告全文：聚酯产业链周报能化投资研究部隋斐投资咨询资格证号Z0017025221224-230103银河能化微信公众号目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES1目录第一章综述11产业链周度数据观点GALAXYFUTURES211产业链周度数据观点PTA上游PX新装置投产PTA基差走弱现货加工费抬升供应端PTA开工率环比回升桐昆嘉通新装置计划提负供应仍有增加预期下游聚酯开工下滑织机加弹印染开工延续回落近期供需面驱动向下在成本走弱的情况下价格有下行压力MEG供应方面国内部分EOEG联产装置回切EG新装置方面盛虹炼化另一套乙二醇装置以及海南炼化共180万吨乙二醇新装置计划年后投产乙二醇供应预期上升需求方面下游聚酯开工率季节性回落产销转淡中期来看供需走弱的预期下仍有累库压力乙二醇价格仍将承压PF疫情影响近期纺纱厂开机率大幅下滑临近元旦部分纺企计划放假短纤产销维持弱势供需走弱下短纤加工费预计维持偏低水平价格有下行压力GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章综述1第二章估值5第三章供需20GALAXYFUTURES4目录第二章估值21PX22PTA23MEG24聚酯GALAXYFUTURES521PX-价格GALAXYFUTURES621PX-价差利润PX-BLENT亚洲PX-NAP亚洲9008008007007006006005005004004003003002002001001000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PX-MX韩国PX理论利润5002500400200015003001000500200050010010001500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920201002021202220232017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES721PX-价差利润PX韩国-美国亚洲甲苯调油价差200500100400010030020020030010040005001006002007003008001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212013201420152016201720172018201920202021202220182019202020212022亚洲甲苯歧化利润600亚洲歧化-调油50050040040030030020020010010000100100200200300112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES822PTA-价格GALAXYFUTURES922PTA-价差PTA印度-中国PTA-PX现货加工费250300020025002000150150010010005050000112131415161718191101111121505001002017201820192020112131415161718191101111121202120222023201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES1022PTA-利润PTA-原油现货利润PTA-石脑油现货利润50005000400040003000300020002000100010000010001000200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023PTA-PX理论利润2500200015001000500050010001121314151617181911011111212017201820192020202120222023GALAXYFUTURES1123MEG-价格GALAXYFUTURES1223MEG-现货价格GALAXYFUTURES1323MEG-上游价格无烟煤300025002000150010005000112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022乙烯东北亚甲醇江苏出罐价16004500140040001200350010003000250080020006001500400100050020000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES1423MEG-价差GALAXYFUTURES1523MEG-价差MEG内外盘价差120010008006004002000200400600112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022EO-125EGMEG华东-华南5000200040001500300010002000100050000100050020001121314151617181911011111211000112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES1623MEG-价差MEG东北亚-东南亚20015010050050100150200112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022MEG东北亚-西北欧MEG东北亚-美国30020020010010000100100200300200400300500600400112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES1723MEG-利润油制利润MEGMTO制MEG利润80003000600020004000100020000010002000200040003000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022MEG乙烯单体制利润MEG煤制利润内蒙古2000600015005000100040005003000020005001000100001500100020002000250030003000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022GALAXYFUTURES1824聚酯-利润聚酯切片利润聚酯瓶片利润10003000800250060020004001500200100005002000400500600100011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023涤纶长丝平均利润涤纶短纤利润1200200010001500800600100040050020000200500400600100011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202017201820192020202120222023202120222023GALAXYFUTURES19