23硅铁开盘跳水低位震荡，跌幅-2.54%，硅锰低位震荡后回升，小幅收跌。成本端来看，冶金焦价格涨后持稳，天津港锰矿价格小幅下跌，电价趋稳，整体上硅铁成本线低位持稳，利润可观，硅锰成本线依旧处于高位，负利润预计将持续到春节前后。1月钢招开启，硅铁主流价月环比上涨，处于8700-8800元/吨的位置，硅锰暂不明朗。整体供需双硅均有一定程度的下降，硅锰轻微垒库，硅铁轻微去库。目前黑色系情绪波动较大，建议在钢招区间轻仓操作，硅锰以高空为主。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报20221226品种日内观点23硅铁开盘跳水低位震荡跌幅-254硅锰低位震荡后回升小幅收跌成本端来看冶金焦价格涨硅铁后持稳天津港锰矿价格小幅下跌电价趋稳整体上硅铁成本线低位持稳利润可观硅锰成本线依旧处于高位负利润预计将持续到春节前后1月钢招开启硅铁主流价月环比上涨处于8700-8800元吨的位置硅锰暂不明朗整体供需双硅均有一定程度的下降硅锰轻微垒库硅铁轻微去库目前黑硅锰色系情绪波动较大建议在钢招区间轻仓操作硅锰以高空为主产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价80500硅铁2305结算价8162-324内蒙硅铁现价80500硅铁2301结算价8410-218期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价72500锰硅2305结算价7342-112内蒙锰硅现价725050锰硅2301结算价7392-90硅铁2305基差-12324硅铁1-5价差292-4硅铁2301基差-260218硅铁5-9价差32-26基差及价差锰硅2305基差-92162锰硅1-5价差5022锰硅2301基差-142140锰硅5-9价差48-4宁夏硅铁利润99050宁夏锰硅利润-262536226665利润内蒙硅铁利润73850内蒙锰硅利润-408536326665硅铁230597万12万锰硅2305125万-06万持仓情况硅铁230142万-09万锰硅230113万-05万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202061202081202111202151202191202261202281202011202021202031202041202051202071202091202121202131202141202161202171202181202211202221202231202241202251202271202291202051202091202161202181202241202251202271202291202011202021202031202041202061202071202081202111202121202131202141202151202171202191202211202221202231202261202281202112120201012020111202012120211012021111202210120221112022121202012120221112022121202010120201112021101202111120211212022101图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁01合约基差SF2001基差SF2101基差SF2201基差SF2301基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差50007000600040005000300040002000300010002000010000-1000-1000-2000-2000116216316416516616716816916101611161216516616716816916101611161216116216316416图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰01合约基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差SM2001基差SM2101基差SM2201基差SM2301基差40003000250030002000150020001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416116216316416516616716816916101611161216图9硅铁1-5价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2001-SF2005SF2101-SF2105SF2201-SF2205SF2301-SF2305SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925003500200030001500250010002000500150001000-500500-10000-1500-500-2000-10009161016111612161162163164165206962971988828917107102711161261226115图11硅锰1-5价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2001-SM2005SM2101-SM2105SM2201-SM2205SM2301-SM2305SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23092000150015001000100050050000-500-500-1000-10005206962971988828917107102711161261226115918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途