22日双硅盘面震荡走强，小幅收涨。成本端来看，冶金焦价格继续拉高100元/吨，天津港锰矿价格小幅上涨，兰炭价格小幅上调，内蒙电价进一步下跌，整体上硅铁成本线低位持稳，利润可观，硅锰成本线依旧处于高位，负利润预计将持续到春节前后，从供给看，双硅产量居高不下，且下游钢厂需求并未得到大幅好转，粗钢日均产量甚至比上月减少25万吨，厂内库存可用天数均有3天左右的上调。整体上供需偏松，弱基本面的现实短期内不会被打破。硅铁成本支撑更弱，可轻仓试空，硅锰建议以逢高做空来看待。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报20221223品种日内观点22日双硅盘面震荡走强小幅收涨成本端来看冶金焦价格继续拉高100元吨天津港锰矿价格小幅硅铁上涨兰炭价格小幅上调内蒙电价进一步下跌整体上硅铁成本线低位持稳利润可观硅锰成本线依旧处于高位负利润预计将持续到春节前后从供给看双硅产量居高不下且下游钢厂需求并未得到大幅好转粗钢日均产量甚至比上月减少25万吨厂内库存可用天数均有3天左右的上调整体上供需硅锰偏松弱基本面的现实短期内不会被打破硅铁成本支撑更弱可轻仓试空硅锰建议以逢高做空来看待产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价80500硅铁2305结算价8162-324内蒙硅铁现价80500硅铁2301结算价8410-218期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价72500锰硅2305结算价7454172内蒙锰硅现价7200-50锰硅2301结算价7482132硅铁2305基差-12324硅铁1-5价差292-4硅铁2301基差-260218硅铁5-9价差32-26基差及价差锰硅2305基差-254-222锰硅1-5价差28-40锰硅2301基差-282-182锰硅5-9价差52-18宁夏硅铁利润99050宁夏锰硅利润-2852025-424445利润内蒙硅铁利润73850内蒙锰硅利润-4412025-724445硅铁230586万-09万锰硅2305131万10万持仓情况硅铁230151万-08万锰硅230118万-05万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202031202091202131202191202231202291202011202021202041202051202061202071202081202111202121202141202151202161202171202181202211202221202241202251202261202271202281202021202041202061202071202111202141202161202171202211202261202271202011202031202051202081202091202121202131202151202181202191202221202231202241202251202281202291202010120211012022101202212120201112020121202111120211212022111202011120201012020121202110120211112021121202210120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁01合约基差SF2001基差SF2101基差SF2201基差SF2301基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差50007000600040005000300040002000300010002000010000-1000-1000-2000-2000116216316416516616716816916101611161216516616716816916101611161216116216316416图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰01合约基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差SM2001基差SM2101基差SM2201基差SM2301基差40003000250030002000150020001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416116216316416516616716816916101611161216图9硅铁1-5价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2001-SF2005SF2101-SF2105SF2201-SF2205SF2301-SF2305SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925003500200030001500250010002000500150001000-500500-10000-1500-500-2000-10009161016111612161162163164165206962971988828917107102711161261226115图11硅锰1-5价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2001-SM2005SM2101-SM2105SM2201-SM2205SM2301-SM2305SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23092000150015001000100050050000-500-500-1000-10005206962971988828917107102711161261226115918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途