>> 招银国际-HRINTH：Room for further repurchases？-231020
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary20Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryHRINTHRoomforfurtherrepurchasesGlennKoCFA高志和BuyonHRINTHsontheexpectationoffurtherrepurchases85236576235LastnightHuarongannouncedthe5throundofoffshorebondrepurchasesInglennkocmbicomhkthisroundtherepurchasedamountwasUSD20112mninprincipalAllofthesewereconductedbetween12-19Oct23Thefocusesremaintobeonlonger-CyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩datedandlowercashpricebondsHRINTHsareourtoppicksoftheChinese85239000801AMCsectorgiventhebetterrisk-returnprofilesandourexpectationoffurthercyrenangcmbicomhkrepurchasesWithintheHRINTHcurveourpreferencesareHRINTH375052924HRINTH55011625andHRINTH425Perpcallable093025ForJerryWang王世超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