研究报告全文：MN20Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCTGRGroup600905CHRobust3Q23powergenerationcontrollingshareholdersshareincreaseplandemonstratesconfidenceTargetPriceRMB624CTGRreporteda1031YoYincreasein3Q23electricitygenerationwithPreviousTPRMB624windandsolarpowershowingrobustgrowthCumulativelyfrom1Q23toUpDownside323Q23thecompanyselectricitygenerationgrewby1336YoYto4003bnkWhWeremainoptimisticaboutCTGRsfull-yearpowergenerationCurrentPriceRMB471AdditionallyCTGthecontrollingshareholderofCTGRplanstoincreaseitsstakeinnext12monthsdemonstratingconfidenceinCTGRsfuturebusinessextensionFor2023CTGRaimstoachievenolessthanrenewableenergyChinaEnergycapacityinstalledandwebelieveCTGRcanachieveitstargetsupportedbyabundantprojectresourcesandlowerupstreamcostWemaintainourBUYMeganXiaCESGAratingandtargetpriceofHK62485237610836CTGRannouncedresilient3Qelectricitygenerationgrowthandwemeganxiacmbicomhkmaintainourfull-yeargenerationestimatesunchangedCTGRs3Qelectricitygenerationreached1194bnkWha1031YoYincreaseWindpowergenerationroseby1004YoYonshoreoffshorewindpowerby9471141YoYto740bnkWhwhilesolarpowerincreasedby1182YoYto416bnkWhHydropowerdeclinedby163YoYbutindependentenergystorageroseby4667YoYCumulativelyin1Q-3Q23electricitygenerationgrewby1336YoYto4003bnkWhwithStockDatawindsolarhydroenergystoragegenerationupbyMktCapRMBmn13481470162789221155667YoYGiventherobustelectricityAvg3mthstoRMBmn33179generationgrowthin3QandJan-Sep2023ourfull-yeargeneration52wHighLowRMB596465estimateof5582bnkWhremainsunchangedTotalIssuedSharesmn28623SourceFactSetCTGRannounceditscontrollingshareholderChinaThreeGorgesGroupsCTGshareholdingincreaseplanshowingstrongShareholdingStructureconfidenceinCTGRsbusinessexpansionCTGplanstoincreaseitsChinaThreeGorgesGroup489stakeinCTGRoverthenext12monthswithanamountnolessthanDuchengWeiyeGroup35SourceHKExRMB300mnandnotexceedingRMB500mnatapriceofnohigherthanRMB6shareThismovedemonstratesthatCTGhasstrongconfidenceinSharePerformanceCTGRsfuturerenewableenergybusinessdevelopmentAbsoluteRelativeCTGRaimsforasignificantextensionofnewenergycapacity1-mth-1735installedforFY23EwithabundantprojectresourcesCTGRtargetsto3-mth-101-20addnolessthan5GWofon-gridinstalledcapacityforrenewableenergy6-mth-14004Asatend-1H23thecompanyadded18GWandhad132GWofcapacitySourceFactSetunderconstructionWebelieveCTGRwillspeedupitscapacityinstallation12-mthPricePerformanceprocessin2H23EMoreoverCTGRacquirednewprojectresourceswithclearlocationsof248GWandacquirednewapprovalandregisterednewenergyprojectsof142GWinJan-Aug2023WebelieveCTGRsabundantprojectresourcesandlowerupstreamcostwillfurthersupportitslong-termbusinessexpansionWekeepourTPunchangedatHK624andmaintainedBUYThankstorobustpowergenerationin1Q-3Q23wemaintainourkeyassumptionslargelyunchangedandstayoptimisticaboutCTGRsfutureinstalledcapacityThuswekeepourTPunchangedatHK624andmaintainBUYSourceFactSetratingEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1548423812286823344438601NetprofitRMBmn564247155589324105344129561EPSReportedRMB023025031037045YoYgrowth26397248179230ConsensusEPSRMBna025032038045ROE10197110117128PEx262208162136113PBx2320171513SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Oct2023Figure1CTGRsPEbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CTGRsPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3PeerstableA-shareClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerRMBRMBmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINATHREEGO-A600905CH47113481470030035043196158613341108161145129CHINALONGYUAN-A001289CH200012032865097113125136207017701605214198180HUANENGPOWER-A600011CH7379630555080092111177918801663105096085CHINASOUTHERN-A003035CH5512087121017024032366320322861717297264230ZHONGMINENER-A600163CH438833512044046049561007952903128115103CECEPWINDPOW-A601016CH31320266410280320351181118994894107093085Average165136115171514SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PeerstableH-shareClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINALONGYUAN-H916HK62412867461096115129158608506453066059055CHINASUNTIEN-H956HK2652531251054065078207461384317048045041CHINAPOWERINTE2380HK2803463642032045056338831577464071064058CHINARESPOWER836HK14286869314268308369172532464387077069062CGNNEWENERGYH1811HK20286674600800800961323323287nananaCHINADATANGC-H1798HK1781294719040044051125413377326066057050DATANGINTLPO-H991HK1143997325020029035323533368305030028025HUANENGPOWER-H902HK34710298527073084103186443386315049046036HUADIANPOWER-H1071HK2984889125056071080193497394349054049041CONCORDNE182HK063538771012013015118491453393093088077Average514236060605SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Oct2023Figure5KeyassumptiontableWindPower20222023E2024E2025E2026ERevenue-RMBmn1688618874212962368227020YoY6812131114Totalattributedinstalledcapacity-MW1592217922204222342227022YoY1213141515Newly-addedinstalledcapacity-MW16532000250030003600YoY-6921252020Effectiveutilizationhours20652065208621062127YoY330111Gridparitypowergeneration3287837008425924933757489YoY4913151617Averagetariff051051050048047COGs-RMBmn6494811897411120213443YoY6325201520SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue113151548423812286823344438601Costofgoodssold478864409906122191434416371Grossprofit6527904413906164631910022230Operatingexpenses66211391576204323622513SGAexpense55710071406186421742316Others105133170179188197Operatingprofit5866790412330144201673819716Otherincome213241000Otherexpense18145148000Investmentgainloss52580181100100100ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV45511501289128910001000EBITDA98531309420207243582760231891Depreciation39075113763696971062311933Otheramortisation8177241241241241EBIT5866790412330144201673819716Interestincome38175223264568542Interestexpense212930204074477950524799NetInterestincomeexpense209128443987451544834258Foreignexchangegainloss000000Otherincomeexpense213241000Others49015824851189900900Pre-taxprofit428666409069110931315516359Incometax34455468694311841636Aftertaxprofit394160868383101501197114723Minorityinterest3304441227121814371767Netprofit36115642715589321053412956BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets210443372842804594156176653692Cashequivalents18511320710566227392166411354Accountreceivables123621908827007314333481837015Inventories79131222234275314Othercurrentassets675113025009500950095009PPE6703087864138354148747161959176892Intangibles187117385139489846584417Othernon-currentassets526329552075830770197791978819Totalassets142576218850262127290079306302313820Currentliabilities302443839347155456724581744665Short-termborrowings782155244340434043404340Accountpayables125082187424916234342357922427Othercurrentliabilities99151099517899178991789917899Non-currentliabilities65897102390127013147013152013147013Long-termborrowings526988367799456119456124456119456Othernon-currentliabilities131981871327557275572755727557Totalliabilities96141140783174168192685197830191678Sharecapital297815242952221522215222152221Retainedearnings120021766118984061804729949Otherreserves1309024804248042480424804Totalshareholdersequity4191370180770518526894909106812Minorityinterest4522788710908121261356315329Totalequityandliabilities142576218850262127290079306302313820PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation36115642715589321053412956Depreciationamortization39885190787799381086412174Changeinworkingcapital66239413249592032813388Others20401926508829537867Netcashfromoperations8976881816871129791865422609InvestingCapitalexpenditure254562990627731200902383526866Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments192822511608000Others6872740452000Netcashfrominvesting280723489729790200902383526866FinancingDividendpaid2610497349227168931053Netborrowings2233028682145952000050005000Others287913537600000Netcashfromfinancing1684137246102731928441076053NetchangeincashExchangedifference045000Others225511166264612173107510310Cashattheendoftheyear225511170264212173107510310GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue263368538205166154Grossprofit284386538184160164Operatingprofit280348560170161178EBITDA263329543205133155EBIT280348560170161178Netprofit272563268248179230PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin577584584574571576Operatingmargin518510518503500511EBITDAmargin871846849849825826ReturnonequityROE9010197110117128GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox070909131312Receivableturnoverdays398844994140400038003500Inventoryturnoverdays607482707070Payableturnoverdays9536123979181700060005000VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE520Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE620Oct2023asdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7