研究报告全文：20Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKuaishou1024HKBUYMaintainExpectinganotherupbeatquarterTargetPriceHK97PreviousTPHK97WeexpectKuaishouKStodeliverin-linerev20YoYandupbeatprofit16UpDownside729aboveconsensusin3Q23EBysegmentecommerceGMVrevwouldseeCurrentPriceHK5613035YoYgrowthattributabletoextensivebrandparticipationandproductofferingsthroughtheStreamInitiativeKSwillopenLevelIaccessofshelf-basedChinaEntertainmentSectormalltoactivemerchantsin1111tofurthersupportstandardproductsgrowthandunlockMACupsideAdsLSisexpectedtogrowat267YoYUpbeatmarginSophieHUANGadjNPMat10vsconsensusof86isprimarilyonbetterGPMandnarrowing85239000889overseaslossItspricesawshort-termpullbackformarketconcernonTencentssophiehuangcmbicomhkpotentialsell-offordividendsMgmtclarifiedthatTencenthasyetdiscussedtheplanandstatednointentiontoreducestakesinthelatestAGMToreflectbetterEasonXUmarginin3Q23Ewelifteditsearningsforecastby0-72inFY23-25EwithTPof85239000849HK97easonxucmbicomhkSolid3Q23EwithbetterprofitabilityWeexpectKStodeliverin-linerev20YoYandupbeatprofitadjNPatRMB276bn16aboveStockDataconsensusin3Q23EBysegmentecommercewouldseeGMVrevatMktCapHKmn2441083035YoYunchangedattributabletoextensivebrandparticipationAvg3mthstoHKmn124797andproductofferingsAdsLSisexpectedtogrowat267YoYvsprior52wHighLowHK80853175257UpbeatmarginadjNPMat10vsconsensusof86isTotalIssuedSharesmn3590SourceBloombergprimarilyonbetterGPMlowerbandwidthcostsandrevsharingandnarrowingoverseaslossSMexpensewouldslightlydeclineYoYwithShareholdingStructurehigherefficiency3Q23EusermetricstrendwellandweforecastDAUatTencent189384mnandtimespentperDAUof1268minsforstrongsummercontentMorningsideVentureCap157andenhancedalgorithmDCMLP49SourceBloombergEcommerceadssharegaintocontinueDespitesoftmacroKSSharePerformancecontinuestogainshareforecommerceforecastingGMVrev3035AbsoluteRelativeYoYin3Q23Ebackedbyextensivebrandparticipationandenrichedproduct1-mth-120-110offeringsthroughStreamInitiativeboostingstrongerROIforKOLand3-mth-2051merchantsWearepositiveonecommercedeeperpenetrationasKSs6-mth36207SourceBloombergMACMAU16-17stilllagsbehindthatofDouyin20-25Lookinginto1111campaignweexpectKSwillupgradeitssubsidiesandincentivesplan12-mthPricePerformancetopromotekeySKUsalesandSMEsupportMoreoverKSwillopenLevelIHK1024HKHSIrebasedaccessofshelf-basedmalltoactivemerchantsin1111thisyeartofurther90supportstandardproductgrowthegFMCGand3CAdswouldoutperform80thesectorwith26YoYgrowthbackedbystrongecommerceadsalongwith70sequentiallyrecoveringexternaladsFurtheradsupsidewillcomefrom16050higheradload9vspeers15withincreasingnativeads2risingCPM40withprecisematchingvalueduseridentificationandextensiveclientbidding3020MaintainBUYWelifteditsearningsforecastby7200in10FY232425EwithunchangedSOTP-basedTPofHK97Catalysts1solid0Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-233Q23Eandguidanceand2upcoming1111withshelf-basedmallexpansionSourceBloombergEarningsSummaryAuditorPwCYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn8108294183111959127322143471YoYgrowth379162189137127AdjnetincomeRMBmn18852575179331240820185AdjEPSRMB4713172743YoYgrowthNANANA5663ConsensusEPSRMBNANA173248PExNANA291811PSx2824201816NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Oct2023Figure13Q23financialpreviewRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23EQoQYoYConsensusDiffRevenue1701919139204932443021067216952312828292252172774427654020276060OperatingProfit729272157404579056433059261212436981296156221NA114237Netprofit5775070357086620262543176271215478761481175819NA111258Adjnetprofit5896477046163569372213126724542269427582NA237016MarginGrossMargin411438415415417450463455464502506503OperatingMargin-428-377-361-237-268-141-113-44-28475641Adjnetmargin-346-249-225-146-177-60-29-02029710086GrowthRevenueYoY366488334350238134129158197279196194RevenueQoQ-6012571192-1383066223-109100-03-05OperatingProfitNANANANANANANANANANANANAAdjnetprofitNANANANANANANANANANANANASourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure23Q23revenuebreakdownRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23EQoQYoYTotalrevenue1701919139204932443021067216952312828292252172774427654020Onlinemarketingservices85589962109091323611351110061159015094130641434714564226Livestreaming725071937724882778428565894710034931999689588-47Otherservices12111983186023671873212425923164283434293502235SourceCompanydataFigure3QuarterlyDAUestimates45025mn3844003743376350203001525020010150100550001Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23EDAUYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Oct2023Figure4QuarterlyGMVestimatesFigure5Quarterlyadsrevestimates35025016000180RMBmnRMBmn1603001400020014012000250120150100002001008000150801006000601003039400026302830504027155014200062000001Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23E1Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23EGMVYoYRevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6QuarterlylivestreamingrevestimatesFigure7Quarterlymarginestimates120002560RMBmn20501000019154016103080001452076000010-501Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23E4000-10-10-15-202000-20-300-25-401Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q23EGPMAdjNPMRevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8YearlyrevenuegrowthestimatesFigure9Yearlymarginestimates1202500060RMBmn200001005015000408010000306050002040-FY20FY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25E105000200100000-10FY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25E15000-20-202000025000-30LivestreamingOnlinemarketingservicesOtherservicesTotalAdjNPGPMAdjNPMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Oct2023Figure10CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue111959127322143471113316129792147056-12-19-24GrossProfit557406634677481562856730679114-10-14-21OperatingProfit214578071587231041007917750NA-225-106Adjnetprofit793312408201857458138662098164-105-38AdjEPSRMB17426842717324851-154-114GrossMargin49852154049751953801ppts03ppts02pptsOperatingMargin19611112778121-08ppts-16ppts-10pptsAdjnetmargin71971416610714305ppts-09ppts-02pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure11EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue111959127322143471111959127322143471000000GrossProfit557406634677481557406634677481000000OperatingProfit214578071587215857807158723530000Adjnetprofit7933124082018574021240820185720000AdjEPSRMB17426842716326843720000GrossMargin49852154049852154000ppts00ppts00pptsOperatingMargin1961111146111105ppts00ppts00pptsAdjnetmargin7197141669714105ppts00ppts00pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure12SOTPValuationBusinessRMBmn23ERevorGMVMethodologyMultipleValuationStakesValueLivestreaming38845EVSales10x3884510038845Advertising59161EVSales20x118322100118322Ecommerce1207550PGMV016x193208100193208EnterpriseValue350375NetCash25828EquityValue376203FX09ValuationHKmn422701TPHKbasedonSOTP97SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Oct2023Figure13CompstableCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-25EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ECAGRKuaishou1024HK31015HKD56BUY9729018011020181660GameTencent700HK358303HKD294BUY46017915113242383416NetEaseNTESUS67107USD104BUY125166161145474238-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-----investmentsAdminExp34003921416845764797Others125728367474747RD1495613784135561477315733InvestingCF1836117548111631075513180Othergains801137600500500Operatingprofit27701125582145780715872Equityraised39386----ChangeofDebts-----Otherincomeexp5131416697153247CashfromCBraised-----Pre-taxIncome79102125312230795716119Others28854482---FinancingCF365004482---IncomeTax1025115833619293183Netprofit78077136891893602812936Netchangeincash12620198413483985215310Adjnetprofit18852575179331240820185Cashbegofyr2039232612132741725227598FX399494494494494Cashendofyr3261213274172522759843402BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets3950543449493635201456431SalesmixPropertyandequipment1105113215120261519420384Livestreaming382376347317289Right-of-useassets1256210806189061885318546Onlinemarketing526521528544562servicesIntangibleassets11721123133614131489Otherservices92104125138149Others1472018305170941655316011Total10001000100010001000Currentassets5301145859506266237379650Cash3261213274172522759843402GrowthratePrepayments32784106443548105206Revenue379162189137127Financialassetsatfair884213087130871308713087Grossprofit429238323190168valuethroughprofitorlossTradereceivables44506288747585009578EBITNANANANANAOthers38289103837783778377AdjnetprofitNANANA564627Currentliabilities3725640710438784734751005PLratiosAccountspayables2002122868246992678928993Operatingmargin3421331961111Otherpayablesand912310190110051193712918Pre-taxmargin9761332062112accrualsAdvancesfrom35033240376142104683Adjnetmargin233617197141customersOthers46084411441144114411Effectivetaxrate1392151150150ReturnsNon-currentliabilities101088744874487448760ROENANANA240305Convertibleredeemable-----preferredsharesOthers101088744874487448760MI-----TotalEquity4509639838462315715975195Shareholdersequity4509639838462315715975195SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE620Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7