>> 招银国际-China Technology–Implications of ASML／LAM Research 3Q23 results-231020
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研究报告全文：20Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainImplicationsofASMLLAMResearch3Q23resultsoQASMLandLAMpostedin-line3Q23resultsandahigherChinasalesmixistheChinaTechnologySectorbrightspotleadingtobetterprofitabilityLookingaheadbothbelievethatmemorymarketrecoveryremainsslowgivenlowUTRandon-goinginventorydigestionandcycleinflectionvisibilitycouldbedelayedtoend-2023HoweverAlexNG85239000881bothremainpositiveonChinademandforcapacityexpansionofdomesticalexngcmbicomhkmaturespecialtynodesOverallweexpectglobalSPEnamestoremainunderpressureintheneartermgivenordervisibilityandthemarginpressurebutweHanqingLIarepositiveondomesticIDMfoundriescapacityexpansiongiventheUSslihanqingcmbicomhkrecentexportrestrictionsbenefitingnameslikeNaura002371CHandAMEC688012CHASMLLAM3Q23inlinehigherChinamixthebrightspot1ASMLrevenuedeclined33QoQandup155YoYin-linewithguidanceNetsystemdropped5QoQbutinstalledbasemgmtsalesclimbed77QoQChinamixclimbedto46vs24in2Qdrivenbystrongdemandformid-criticalandmaturenodesandhigherorderfillrateallowancepriorbelow50GPMof519wasabovehigh-endofguidancethankstoabetterproductmixonimmersionandone-offcostbenefit2LAMRevenuegrowthof84QoQiswithinguidanceFoundrymixdeclined11duetotimingofleading-edgeinvestmentsDRAMmiximproved14Chinamixreached48vs26in2QonstrongdomesticdemandGPMof479exceededhigh-endofguidanceonproductmixASMLLAM4QrevenueQoQgrowth2025anotherstrongupcycle1ASML4Qrevenuetogrow3QoQatmidpointandGPMof50-51LookingaheadmgmtguidedflattishsalesinFY24Ebutstronggrowthin2025drivenbyAIenergytransitionelectrificationindustryupcycleandglobalfabexpansion2LAM4Qrevenuetogrow63QoQatmid-pointandGPMof46-48onbetterclientmixbutRDcostswillre-acceleratePositiveonHBMChinademandspecialtytechASMLexpectedstrongdemandforDUVsystemsinChinagivendomesticfocusonmatureandmid-criticalnodesChinaremains20inbacklogLAMexpectedstrongDRAMspendinggivenHBMandChinesedemandforspecialtytechnologyandChinamaturenodeinvestmentremainsustainableinthelongtermMemoryrecoveryisslowcycleinflectionvisibilitybyend-2023BothASMLLamremaincautiousonmemoryrecoveryasinventorydigestionisRelatedReportsongoingSpecificallyLamstatedthatmemoryUTRisstillatalowleveland1ImplicationsofUSsupdatedcustomersareholdingoffontoolupgradeInadditionASMLbelievesthatchipexportrestrictionstologicisbottomingoutandexpectsvisiblecycleinflectionbyend-2023globaldomesticSPEGPUcompanies-18Oct2023linkNomaterialimpactonbusinessfromnewexportcontrolsASMLstatesthattheUSsupdatedexportcontrolshavenomaterialeffectonitsfinancial2GlobalSPE2Q23WrapChinaoutlookinFY23Eandshipmentsofmatureandmid-criticalnodessystemsdemandremainsresilientcomplywithregulationsLamalsoexpectsnomaterialimpactonitsAwaitingupcycleafter2023businessslowdown-18Sep2023link3ImplicationsofDutchadditionalValuationTableexportcontrol-3Jul2023linkMktCapPricePExPBxROE4ImplicationsofUSsnewchipNameTickerUSmnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY23EexportrestrictionstoChina-10SMIC981HK2127530022121810638Oct2022link5USmaybroadenAIchipsHuaHongSemi1347HK4277195123138079105exportrestrictions-14SepNaura002371CH1786724313361278571592022linkAMEC688012CH13698166206225455996SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Oct2023KeytakeawaysofASMLASMLUSNR3Q23results13Q23ResultsRevenueEUR67bn155-33YoYQoQwithinpreviousguidanceGPM51901ppts06pptsYoYQoQabovepreviousguidance50drivenbyDUVproductmixandsomeone-offcosteffectsOPM327-08ppts-01pptsYoYQoQNetIncomeEUR19bn113-25YoYQoQNetbookingEUR26mn-42QoQincludingEUVofEUR05bn-69QoQduetocautiouscustomersdelayingordersastheindustryworkingthroughacycle23Q23salesbreakdownBreakdownbyTechnologyoArFi48ofsalesvs49in2Q23oEUV35ofsalesvs37in2Q23oKrF10ofsalesvs9in2Q23oArFDry4ofsalesvs2in2Q23oI-line1ofsalesvs1in2Q23oMetrologyInspection2ofsalesvs2in2Q23BreakdownbyregionoChina46ofsalesvs24in2Q23oSouthKorea20ofsalesvs27in2Q23oTaiwan24ofsalesvs34in2Q23oUSA5ofsalesvs10in2Q23oEMEA4ofsalesvs2in2Q23oRestofAsia1ofsalesvs1in2Q2334Q23GuidanceRevenueEUR67-71bnmid-pointincreaseof30QoQGPM50-51RDcostsofEUR1030mn137YoYSGAcostofEUR285mn18YoY4OtherhighlightsChinademandforDUVsystemsremainsstrongsystemsformatureandmid-criticalnodestoChinacomplywithexportcontrolregulationsChinaremain20inbacklogUSupdatedexportcontrolhasnomaterialeffectonfinancialoutlookfor2023EUVrevenuegrowthof25YoYbutinstalledbasebusinessdown5YoYin2023FlattishrevenueYoYinFY24Ebutstrong2025drivenbyenergytransitionelectrificationandAIdemandupcycleandglobalnewfabexpansionFlattishorlowershipmentofEUVin2024duetocostandtransitionyear50of2025demandisonnewfabsforDUVandEUVNoupturnyetinmemorylogicisbottomingoutcustomerexpectcycleinflectiontobevisiblebyend2023Figure1ASMLsystemsalesbytechnology3Q23Figure2ASMLrevenuebyregion3Q23SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Oct2023KeytakeawaysofLamResearchLRCXUSNR3Q23results13Q23ResultsRevenueUS348bn84QoQwithinguidanceGPM47922pptsQoQabovehigh-endofpreviousguidance475OPM30128pptsQoQabovehigh-endofpreviousguidance29DilutedEPSUS685145QoQabovehigh-endofguidanceUS6823Q23salesbreakdownBreakdownbysystemoFoundry36ofsalesvs47in2Q23oNVM15ofsalesvs18in2Q23oDRAM23ofsalesvs9in2Q23oLogicother26ofsalesvs26in2Q23BreakdownbyregionoChina48ofsalesvs26in2Q23oKorea16ofsalesvs24in2Q23oTaiwan7ofsalesvs20in2Q23oJapan9ofsalesvs10in2Q23oUS8ofsalesvs8in2Q23oEurope7ofsalesvs8in2Q23oSEA5ofsalesvs4in2Q2334Q23GuidanceRevenueUS34-40bnmid-pointincreaseof63QoQGPM46-48OPM285-305EPSUS625-7754OtherhighlightsInstall-basedbusinesstoseeearlybenefitswhenmemoryinvestmentsrecoveryExpectChinademandcontinuetobestrongin4Qbutnotasstrongas3QMemoryatlowUTRandcustomersareholdingoffonupgradingtoolsuntilmoreinventorydigestionSpecialtytechnologythebrightspotandbusinessupYoYin2023Favourablecustomermixmaynotcontinueatthesamelevelin2024affectingGPMDRAMbusinessuptickdrivenbyChinademandandtransitionfromDDR4toDDR5innewCPUsWFEspendingin2023inUS80bnrangevspriorUS70bnhardtocallthetimingandpaceofWFErecoveryNANDpricingstabilizedandbiddemandincreasedtohighteensvshigh-singledigitsYoYdrivenbygreaterdemandelasticityinperunitcontentfromcertainconsumermarketsDRAMspendingmodestlyupdrivenbybettertrendsinHBMdemandandupsidefromChinacustomersHBMstillintightersupplyandrespondquickertocustomersurgentdemandFoundryspendingdownslightlyduetoweaknessinbothleadingedgeandnon-ChinamaturenodeinvestmentsChinamaturenodeinvestmentsremainsustainableinthelongtermNomaterialimpactonbusinessfromrecentlynewUSexportrestrictionsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Oct2023Figure3Lamsystemrevenuesegment3Q23Figure4Lamrevenuebyregion3Q23SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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