>> 招银国际-Innolight(300308 CH)–Expect higher contribution from AI revenue in 3Q; Upgrade to Buy-231020
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研究报告全文：MN20Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateInnolight300308CHExpecthighercontributionfromAIrevenuein3QBUYUpgradeUpgradetoBuySinceourdowngradereporton14AuglinkwehaveseenacontinuousdeclineonTargetPriceRMB10930Innolightssharepricebymorethan23OurcurrentviewonthestockisbecomingPreviousTPRMB10400increasinglyfavourabledrivenby1continuousstrongmomentumobservedinUpDownside155buildingupAIinfrastructuregloballyand2quickuptakeseenindownstreamCurrentPriceRMB9464applicationmarketegAI-poweredAdsadoptedbyMetaGoogleandAmazonGitHubcopilotbyMicrosoftInadditioncompanieswithintheAIhardwarevalueChinaTechnologychainstarttoreportstrongearningsOnThursdaynight19OctoberTFC300394LilyYANGPhDCHNAaleadingintegratedsolutionproviderforopticalsub-assembliesreleased85239163716impressive3Q23earningsdeliveringrevenueNPgrowthof736and950YoYlilyyangcmbicomhkrespectivelyAswebelieveInnolightisoneofthetrueAIbeneficiariesweexpectAI-KevinZHANGrelatedrevenuetocontributemoreinInnolightsrevenuestartingfromtheupcoming852376187273Qearningsandacceleratein2024weupgradetoBUYwithadjustedTPofkevinzhangcmbicomhkRMB10930SharepriceisgettingattractiveagainWedowngradethesharepriceinAugustStockDataMktCapRMBmn759770asthestockhasgonefaraheaditsearningsfueledbygenerativeAIfrenzyAvg3mthstoRMBmn39390Valuationwasappealingandproductionramp-upof800Gtransceiversshouldtake52wHighLowRMB170002633timeWebelievelotsofnegativenewshavebeenbakedintothepriceegprofitTotalIssuedSharesmn8028SourceFactSettakingchallengingmacroupdatedUSrestrictiononadvancedchipexportsCurrentsharepriceisgettingattractiveconsidering1transceiverisoneoftheShareholdingStructurecriticalcomponentsthatiswidelyusedinAIdatacentersandtheglobaldemandonShandongZhongjiInvestment113buildingAIinfrastructureremainsstrongwithvisibilityinto20242newlyHoldingsCoannouncedUSrestrictionshouldhavenon-materialimpactsonthecompanysWangWeixiu62SourceBloombergnear-tomid-termrevenueand3continuousprogressonmonetizationofgenerativeAIshouldyieldstableinvestmentsinthefieldSharePerformanceTrueAIbeneficiariesapartfromNvidiastartridingthetailwindTFCjustAbsoluteRelative1-mth-1922releasedstrong3QresultsPositionedupstreaminInnolightssupplychainand3-mth-365-292TFCsstrongearningsfurthersubstantiatetheongoingcapacityexpansionamong6-mth252456thebeneficiariesintheAIsectorThisalsounderscoresourobservationinourSourceFactSetrecentAIsectorreportlinkthattheplayersintheAIvaluechainaregradually12-mthPricePerformanceexperiencingpositiveoutcomein2023UpgradetoBUYwithTPofRMB10930ConsideringrecentadditionalordersreportedbyUDNlinkregardinghyperscalersandbetter-than-expectedramp-upofTSMCsCoWoScapacityweexpectInnolightsrevenuetocomeinbetterthanourpreviousestimatesWereviseduprevenueforecastsby1213and4andslightlyliftedGPMfor2023E24E25EWemaintainthesamemultipleof35x2025EPESourceFactSetUpsidecatalysts1faster-than-expectedramp-upof800Gand2slower-than-expecteddeclineofnon-AIrevenueDownsiderisks1continuousriseininterestrates2intensifiedgeopoliticaltensionsand3lower-than-expectedproductionEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn76959642113861481915690YoYgrowth9225318130259Grossmargin256293313318317NetprofitRMBmn8771224170823212501YoYgrowth1339639535977EPSRMB121154213290312EPSConsensus-154214433545PEx782615444327303ROE76102126148139SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk20Oct2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue11386148191569010177131331511012134GrossProfit35654707498031004097479515154OperatingProfit19432624283616712273273316154Netprofit17082321250114692011241016154EPSRMB21329031218325130117154GrossMargin31331831730531231708ppt06ppt0pptOperatingMargin17117718116417318106ppt04ppt0pptNetMargin15015715914415315906ppt04ppt0pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure212MforwardPEbandFigure312MforwardPEchart70RMB60180160501404012010030802060104020001-yrForwardPEMeanClosingPx88x212xMean1SDMean-1SD337x462x586xSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE220Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue705076959642113861481915690Costofgoodssold52575727681678211011210711Grossprofit179319682826356547074980Operatingexpenses80310051499162220832144Salestax222163689295SGAexpense477507598623805855RDexpense50654176792111841238Others202647110245Operatingprofit9909631327194326242836Otherincome012842416Otherexpense344244Pre-taxprofit9879601352194526442848Incometax11173118171233251Aftertaxprofit8768861234177424112597Minorityinterest111010669097Netprofit8658771224170823212501BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets7982100229587112321389514929Cashequivalents167935152831389847996998Accountreceivables151419971509142423941648Inventories377437993888382650394057Prepayment40726482106113Othercurrentassets9736381295200215572113Non-currentassets563465436970749782659010PPE272631523217357941024657Right-of-useassets02111566Deferredincometax384648576672Intangibles360382322263206149Goodwill191519801949191718861854Othernon-currentassets5959621422167519992272Totalassets136161656516557187292216023939Currentliabilities377231663264285739102915Short-termborrowings1041794385456703347Accountpayables13671205113687813381010Taxpayable35689389115119Othercurrentliabilities11289321349119714181107Contractliabilities22122151920Accruedexpenses179166279221318313Non-currentliabilities185017961224213822762701Long-termborrowings14301262696156815851964Bondpayables2900000Obligationsunderfinanceleases092344Deferredincome154277264283344367Othernon-currentliabilities238248261282342365Totalliabilities562249624488499461855616Sharecapital713800801801801801Retainedearnings209028613893542074899657Otherreserves508678287251732474057489Totalshareholdersequity78891148911945135441569517947Minorityinterest104114124190279376Totalequityandliabilities136161656516557187292216023939PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE320Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation9879601352194526442848Depreciationamortization340436493507551668Taxpaid11173118171233251Changeinworkingcapital10965872911751074401Others997743234250172Netcashfromoperations228132449214121383839InvestingCapitalexpenditure956840792106813911472Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments37289805967000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term8542302313131investmentsOthers380311434904637279Netcashfrominvesting8731219155397412881362FinancingDividendpaid121168233253323408Netborrowings14212596995526423Proceedsfromshareissues0266533000Others026742102120120Netcashfromfinancing1300226416419661265NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear123616483489280938744776Exchangedifference371764646464Others449185974510018382134Cashattheendoftheyear164834892809387447766974GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue4829225356290151Grossprofit3909843697322171Operatingprofit71727379259361202Netprofit68613396200370198Adjnetprofit78048425363373205PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin254256293305312317Operatingmargin140125138164173181Adjnetprofitmargin10895108139148155ReturnonequityROE11791104116141148GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx070707070707Currentratiox213229423650VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE466326206583426355PEdiluted469326206583426355SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE420Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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