研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleAndyChen陈思超CompanyReportUni-PresidentChina00220HK究85225092665EquityResearch公司报告统一企业中国00220HKandychengtjascomhk12October2023TableSummaryExpectingSalesGrowthToBeFasterIn2024WithImprovingProfitMarginsBuyWereiterateBuyratingwithTPofHK650WeforecastUni-President公ChinasUPCortheCompanyrevenuetobeRMB29535mnRMB31875RatingTableRankBuymnRMB33999mnup457967yoyin2023-2025WeforecastitsMaintained司2023-2025shareholdersprofittobeRMB1490mnRMB1744mnRMB2025报mnimplyinga3-yearCAGRof183from2022to2025Manyinvestorsare评级买入维持concernedthatUPCsrevenuegrowthin2023maymissitspreviousguidance告ieatahighsingle-digityoyrateparticularlyduetohighcomparablebasein2H2022Inourviewsuchpessimismhasbeenpricedintoalargeextent6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK650CompanyReportGoingforwardweexpectthatUPCwillrecordfastersalesgrowthin2024andthatUPCsprofitabilitywillgraduallyimprovein2023-2025drivenbyoptimizedSharePrice股价HK5520salesstructurelowerinputcostsandstabilizedoperatingexpenseratiosOurTPofHK650isbasedon150x2024FPERStaybullishonthebeveragesegmentAccordingtoourestimationUPCsStockPerformancebeveragesaleswillrecordyoygrowthofnearly11in2023WeexpectRTD股价表现teaandjuicestomaintainsolidgrowthmomentumin2H2023-2024BesidesTableQuotePictheincreaseinoutdooractivitiesandtrafficvolumethegrowthcurveofUPCs400ofreturn350beveragesegmentismainlybaseduponthreestrategicpillars1Impactful300productmessagingTheCompanycontinuestodeploybrandrevitalization250证rebrandinginitiativesinordertofosteritsflagshipproductsmainlyUniGreen200TeaandUniIceTeaintonationalbrandnamesForHaizhiyantheCompany券告150hashighlightedthebenefitthatHaizhiyancontainsMediterraneanSeasaltto100研help报rehydrateandfuelelectrolytelossAnditskeymessagedrinkHaizhiyan50aftersweatinghasbeenwidelyacceptedbyyoungChineseconsumers200究究ChannelpenetrationUPCfurtherexpandeditspoint-of-salePOSinterms50报ofdistributionchannelsanddevelopedkeymarketsbyactivelycoveringgift100研150familyanddiningscenarios3ProductinnovationTheCompanycontinued告Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23to券cultivatenewproductlinetocapitalizeonconsumerspursuitofhealthierHSIIndexUPCEquityResearchReportlifestyleForexamplein2023UPClaunchedsugar-freejasminegreenteaand证furtherreplenishedits100fruitandvegetablejuiceportfolioTablTablePriceChangeChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YStabilizingmarketshareremainsapriorityontheagendaforUPCsfoodeInf股价变动1个月3个月1年segmentAccordingtoourestimationtheyoydeclineinfoodsegmentsaleswillnarrowin2H2023OutdoorconsumptionareasincludingtransporthubsAbs13140105o1绝对变动食andtouristspotsthrivedthankstohighertrafficvolumewhilstdemandfromReltoHSIndex04102171品factoryworkerssoftenedgivenlowerutilizationofcapacityinmainlandChina相对恒指变动Goingforwardtheinstantnoodlesmarketespeciallythehigh-endcategory饮AvgSharePriceHK546594661faceschallengesfrommarginallyweakerdemandandintensifiedcompetition平均股价港元料HoweverweseethepositivesthatUPCsnewsuperstarproductseriesTheSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational行KingofTomatoismorelikelytoachievemid-to-highdouble-digityoygrowth业in2H2023-2024andmayconsistentlybeatmarketexpectationsStrongergrossmarginwouldallowsomeroomforUPCtoexpandSDFoodBeverageSectorinvestmentsGivenongoinginputcoststabilizationmainlypalmoilandPETresinweforecastUPCsoverallGPMtorise11pptyoyin2023RisksunexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsfoodsafetyissuesTabYTablePrearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结ofit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率leI1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A252311501034777130318714041793109中2022A282571222028318417230521603407091统2023F2953514900345219148306217041481113一外2024F3187517440404171126305617048595132企2025F33999202504691611093045170563111154运业输TableBaseDataSharesinIssuem总股数m43193MajorShareholder大股东Uni-PresidentEnterprisesCorp724中MarketCapHKm市值HKm238425FreeFloat自由流通比率276国3-MonthAverageVol3个月平均成交股数00036301FY23NetGearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCash52WeeksHighLowHK52周高低HK84905210FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元72PresidentChina00220HKChinaPresident00220-SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalUniSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeaderUni-PresidentChina00220HKFigure-1ExpectingUPCstotalrevenuetogrowataFigure-2ExpectingUPCsshareholdersprofittogrow3-yearCAGRof64from2022Ato2025F219170161yoyin2023-20251raMthgiRelbaTRMBbnRMBmn35340152500303192025202000295174430283101626101501149015000252122212October2023255-102281000-20200500-3020A21A22A23F24F25F20A21A22A23F24F25FRevenueYoYGrowth-RevenueShareholdersProfitYoYGrowth-ShareholdersProfitSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3ExpectinggrossmarginofUPCsbeverageFigure-4ExpectingUPCsprofitmarginstosteadilysegmentfoodsegmenttoreach342244enhancein2023-20252raMthgiRelbaTin20234040354326353063103862903013530346350253393423020253152442472499300220HK76697625230105363571595560200435021A22A23F24F25F20A21A22A23F24F25F统一企业中国BeverageSegmentFoodSegmentGPMOPMNPMSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-5Majorrawmaterialpricesstabilizedfrom3Q23Figure-6FlourpriceremainedbasicallyflatyoybutPresidentChinaslightlyincreasedqoqin3Q23-UniRMBTonnePalmOilSugarPETResinFlourSpotPriceRMBKg160004415000140004313000120004211000100009000418000700040600050003927290102040409111214151719202223252730020205----------------------1403221028160422190725130119072515032209281603241230--------------------------08091112010203040506070809101112010203050607----------------------0204050708101201030506081011010204060709101202030506--------------------------202387202397202381820231010202120212021202120222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220232023202320232023202320202020202020202020202020202021202120212021202120212021202220222022202220222022202220222023202320232023SourceiFinDGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceiFinDGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeaderUni-PresidentChina00220HKTable-1Peerscomparison1raMthgiRelbaTMarketROEGPMOPMLastPERxPBRxDYCompanyTickerCapPriceHKmn23F24F25F23F23F23F23F23FHongKongListedFoodBeverageCompaniesNongfuSpring09633HKHKD452050834045939434117216400587321BudweiserAPAC01876HKHKD1558206332260213187231893512208TsingtaoBrewery00168HKHKD6380107428184156138292816138517512October2023ChinaResourcesBeer00291HKHKD43701417712462031714216179421175ChinaMengniuDairy02319HKHKD2570101257159138121221913736766ChinaFeihe06186HKHKD455412618577721568179642280AusnutriaDairy01717HKHKD2905220121947908376742171ChinaYouranDairy09858HKHKD1465541na45320400-5122479ChinaModernDairy01117HKHKD0766016874432052346241109WHGroup00288HKHKD4315529871555207549917760TingyiMasterKong00322HKHKD110862429166137121456126630663Uni-PresidentChina00220HKHKD552238431501251051775114305672raMthgiRelbaTWantWantChina00151HKHKD510605851571421303657216439211ZJLDGroup06979HKHKD1204393872101761366604382576295VitasoyInternational00345HKHKD97310438226357228035021547516ZhouHeiYaInternational01458HKHKD281669729015912715515151581HealthHappiness01112HKHKD97262757157480972130605136NissinFoods01475HKHKD6046304na159na172899337112ChinaFoods00506HKHKD278777617886na1258135na83WeilongDeliciousGlobal09985HKHKD71916905159137120251216447824900220HKSimpleAverage3031581273035144422143WeightedAverage3032482128125245480218SourceBloomberg统一企业中国PresidentChina-UniReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeaderUni-PresidentChina00220HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue2523128257295353187533999PPE72576663639260235712Costofsales1701220070206492213323461Right-of-useassets16911702166916361604Timedeposits39503532548856255766Grossprofit821981888886974210538Others18041465146614551445SDexpenses55435887620266627038Totalnon-currentassets147021336115015147391452712October2023Administrativeexpenses10491047106311281190Otherincomeexpensesnet279242247263276Cashcashequivalents286109246293429Othercashbalance18433014240021112323Operatingprofit19061496186822152586Inventories23932523202321442234Financecostnet201209204214237Accountsreceivables649820704746791ShareofGLfromassociates3526272830Otherreceivablesandprepays762905123412831335Others14321054126311931171Profitbeforetax21421731209924562852Totalcurrentassets73648423787077718282Incometax641509609712827Totalassets2206521784228842251022809Profitaftertax15011222149017442025Short-termdebts1127682424225021112raMthgiRelbaTNon-controllinginterest00000Accountspayables21182675234424382560Shareholdersprofitloss15011222149017442025Otherpayablesandaccruals20682133259723452468Contractliabilities32332258140913451566BasicEPSRMB03470283034504040469Others15194131122115Totalcurrentliabilities76837928890585008820TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementDeferredtaxliabilities331322351366349Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOthers286353404444489Totalnon-currentliabilities617675755810838OperatingactivitiesTotalliabilities8300860396609310965700220HKPBT21421731209924562852DDA120311161026996966Sharecapital4040404040Workingcapitalchanges267814418443274Sharepremium48304830483048304830Others3023596049Otherreserves35443858387738973916统一企业中国Cashgeneratedfromoperations30492055276630694142Retainedearnings53524454447744334365Incometaxandinterestpaid627625630775911Totalshareholdersequity1376513181132241320013151Cashfromoperatingactivities24211430213622943231Minorityinterest00000Totalequity1376513181132241320013151InvestingactivitiesPresidentChina-PurchaseofPPE378439722594623TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosUniOthers202231537250304Cashfrominvestingactivities58041722593449272021A2022A2023F2024F2025FFinancingactivitiesRevenuegrowth108120457967Totalloanchanges3756551656174139Grossprofitgrowth19-04859682Totaldividendspaid16221807146717882093Operatingprofitgrowth-96-215249186167Others4539716064Netprofitgrowth-77-186219170161Cashfromfinancingactivities2042119126019022168Grossmargin326290301306310Netchangesincash20117713847136Operatingmargin7653636976EffectofFXratechanges00000Netmargin5943505560Cashatbeginningofyear486286109246293ROE10991113132154Cashatendofyear286109246293429ROA6856677789SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalCashconversioncyclena241170154174Currentratiox1011090909Quickratiox0607070707ReportNetgearingratioNCNCNCNCNCTotalpayoutratio120120120120120CompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeaderUni-PresidentChina00220HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to512October2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport00220HK3GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiarieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport统一企业中国6GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiarieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesPresidentChina-DISCLAIMERUniThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5