研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportAutomobilesSectorIvanWu吴凱翔行业报告汽车行业85225092649ivanwugtjascomhk25September2023TableMainInfoBiweeklyUpdateAutoSalesMomentuminSepIsExpected行toContinueGoldenSeasonIsExpectedtoGraduallyUnfold业报EventhoughAugustisthetraditionaloff-seasonforPVsalesinChinaPVsalesremainedstrongAsmajorOEMscontinuedtheirRatingTableInvestInfoOutperformMaintained告ReportSectorpreviousdiscountsinAugustcoupledwithautoshowstimulationdomesticPVsalesdidnotdropsharplyinAugustArelativelystrong评级跑赢大市维持momdemandinAugustbeatmarketexpectationsAccordingtothedatafromChinaPassengerCarAssociationCPCAin8M2023retailsales2ofPVsinthenarrowsenseinChinareached192mnunitsup25yoyHK-listedOEMsandHSIperformanceand86momAmongthemretailsalesofNEVsreachedapproximately716000unitsup345yoyand118momwith30penetrationrateof373hittingarecordhighBasedoncurrentSep20salesdatatheautosalesmomentumisexpectedtocontinue100Policiescontinuetocatalyseandacceleratethearrivalofthe-10UrbanNOAeraTheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology-20证statedattheWorldIntelligentandConnectedVehicleConferenceon21-30Sep告2023thatitwillcontinuetopromotethehigh-qualitydevelopment券-40ofintelligentconnectedvehicleindustryandlaunchpilotprojectsforthe研报admissionandon-roaduseofintelligentconnectedvehiclesassoonas究possible究TheofficialversionofTeslaFSDisexpectedtobelaunchedResearchReportandmajornewenergyOEMswillexpandurbanNOAcoverageinHengSengIndexHK-listedMainAutoOEMs报研3Q2023WiththenewroundofpricereductionforNEVsin2H2023告SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalsome券OEMsareacceleratingthedeploymentofintelligentizationandEquityPHEVsjointlypromotingyoymomsalesgrowthinSep证HKmainOEMsandHSIperformanceChineseOEMsoverseasdeploymentcontinuestoreapresults100andthepotentialofoverseasmarketsisgraduallytoshowInAug802023totalexportsofPVsincludingfinishedgoodsandCKDwere60330000unitsreachedarecordhighup310yoyand65mom40respectivelyin1-8M2023exportsalestotalled2322mnunitsjumped20T708yoyOn13SeptheEuropeanUnionannounceda0countervailinginvestigationintoChineseelectricvehiclesWebelievea-20theimpactwillbelimitedbecauseChineseOEMsexportsaremainlyb-40concentratedinSoutheastAsianandtheMiddleEasternmarketsWith-60汽lcontinuouslyincreasedexportscapacityanddeclinedfreightcostshigh-80growthinexportsalesisexpectedtocontinuein2H202320229222022112220231222023322202352220237222023922车eHSI0017500489011140195802238行OpportunitiesintheautosectorlieinOEMsandcomponents023330121109866098680201509863业companieswithbetterearningsperformanceFortheOEMsectorLSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalwewillcontinuetorecommendtopself-ownedbrandswithfasttransitioneAutomobilesSectortoNEVandnewEVforcesThuswerecommendGeelyAuto00175fHKGreatWallMotor-H02333HKLiAuto-W02015HKandXPeng-W09868HKfortheheavy-dutytrucksectorwerecommendtSinotruk03808HKforthecomponentssectorbenefitingfromtheMrecoveryofautoindustryandtheriseofadvancedautonomousdrivingwerecommendNexteer01316HKandMinthGroup00425HKarRisks1Industrycompetitionmayintensify2salesmayfallshortofexpectations3globaleconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthangexpectedinSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8SourceFigureSourcereasonablealevel3FigureSource2H20231FigureseizeIndexSengHangopricesstocktheweekstwoOSepportunitiesintheautosectorlieinOEMsandcomponentscompanieswithbetterearningsperformanceearningsbetterwithcompaniescomponentsandOEMsinliesectorautotheinpportunitiese100200300400500600700800900100020003000400050006000thCPCAChoiceCPCA0RetailSalesofNEVsinNEVsSalesRetailChinaofofVolumeExportNEVsemarketshareChinayearmarketinthis50las000Units000highgrowthhighexportofPeSep-11costTheJan-22EsNEVtGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaipagnetrationrateofenergynewGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiFeb-22Sep-12eMar-22foalesrApr-22Sep-13disclaimerofinternationalshippinghasreturnedtoreturnedhasshippinginternationalofLookingforwardtotheseconthetoforwardLookingMay-22Sep-14Jun-22repcetcontinuetoexpectedareJul-2210152025303540451015202530354045Sep-150505Aug-22CCFISep-22fSep-16somesomeJan-21newbeNEVsthenormalwillJan-21Oct-22Feb-21Feb-21Sep-17ChinaofinNEVsWholesaleSalesNov-22SCFIMar-21Mar-21Dec-22newEVforcesplummetedforcesEVnewSep-18PenetrationRateNEVsWholesaleofApr-21Apr-21RatePenetrationNEVsWholesaleofJan-23May-21May-21PVsSep-19Feb-23Jun-21Jun-21Mar-23Jul-21Sep-20wholesaleApr-23Jul-21Aug-21dhdMay-23PAug-21Sep-21Sep-21togrowiningrowtoalfoftheyeartheofalfJun-23Sep-21Oct-21Sep-22Jul-23Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Aug-23Nov-21Sep-23retailsalesretailJan-22Dec-21Feb-22Jan-22Mar-22SourceSource20232FigureAugandisAugand4FigureSourceSourcewFeb-22ofpricesstocktheandApr-22Mar-22eMay-22100200300400500600700isexpectere455055606570758085ChinaAutomobileDealersAssociationDealersAutomobileChinaChoiceApr-22Jun-220PenetrationRatePenetrationNEVsRetailsalesofmainPenetrationRateNEVsRetailsalesPenetrationofChinainJul-22Unit000RMBTon000May-20May-22JanThepriceoflithiumcarbolithiumofpriceTheAug-22monthlyIndexAlertInventoryVehicleJul-20Jun-22GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaioptimisticthatselfthatoptimisticSep-22expectedJul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