研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportEnergyOperationsSectorPeterShao邵俊樨行业报告能源运营行业85225095464petershaogtjascomhk18September2023ChinaTableMainInfoAugustPowerStatsDemandGrowthRemainedSolidHydropowerOutputContinuedtoImprove行业EventChinasNationalEnergyAgencyNEAreleaseddataonpower报consumptionandproductioninAugust2023RatingTableInvestInfoOutperformAugustpowerdemandgrowthremainedsolid1-8M23powerconsumptionin告SectorReportMaintainedChinarose50yoydemonstratingsoliddemandgrowthHoweverduetoahighbaseeffectdemandgrowthforAugustdeceleratedby26pptsvsthatinJulyto评级跑赢大市维持39yoyByindustrysegmentspowerconsumptioninAugustbytheprimarysecondarytertiaryresidentialsectorgrewby86yoy-54pptsmom762yoy19pptsmom66yoy-30pptsmom-99yoy-150pptsmomrespectivelyExcludingthehighbaseeffectwebelievepowerdemandgrowthinAugustremainedsoliddrivenby1momimprovementinindustrialandconsumptiondataand2highertemperaturesaccordingtoChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationtheaveragetemperatureacrossChinawas220Cup08CyoyHydropoweroutputcontinuedtoshowsignsofimprovementinAugustPowerproductioninAugustgrew11down25pptsvsthegrowthinJulyBy证powersourcesoutputgrewfromhydropowerwindpowersolarpowernuclear告券powerthermalpowerwas185yoy360pptsmom-115yoy-365pptsmom139yoy75pptsmom55yoy26pptsmom-22yoy-94研报pptsmomrespectivelyHydropoweroutputcontinuedtoimproveinAugust究究followingnarrowedoutputdeclineinJulyshowingthefirstpositiveyoygrowthsofarthisyearTheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisationWMOpredictsthatthereisResearchReport报研a90chancethattheEINinoeventwillcontinueinthesecondhalfof2023with告atleastamoderateintensityleadingtomorerainfallsinChina券EquityInvestmentsuggestionsMaintainOutperformfortheenergyoperations证sectorWebelievetherecentsell-offofthesectorislargelyassociatedwiththeconcernsonthepotentialpowertariffadjustmentsamiddeclinesincoalpricesSuchsell-offwhichhasledtomanyrenewableplaysvaluationplungingconsiderablybelowtheirbookvaluesisspeculativeandoverdoneinourviewWebelievemorefocusshouldbeplacedonwhetherthesectorcanimproveitsearningsprofilethroughongoinggreentransformationwhiletarifffluctuationsperTseoverthepasthaveprovedtobeinadequateinpredictingthesectorsfutureaOursectortoppickisCPID02380HKwhoseimprovedearningsprofilebysolidgreentransformationhasfarfrombeingpricedinwithaTPofHK410b能DownsiderisksLower-than-expectedpowerdemandlower-than-expected源lprogressinpowermarketreformsunfavourablepolicychangesforIPPs运e营行业LefEnergySectorOperationstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4SeSourcesectorinresidentialChinaSourcesecondaryChinaindustryinSourceFigureFigureFigureethTWhTWhTWh100012001400160010000100020003000400050006000e100020003000400050006000700080009000200400600800NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEA---las201920190201905310t-150AccumulatedAccumulatedpowerChinaconsumptioninAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbytheAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbythe102pag-JanJan48Jane2729FebFeb20202020232020Febfor0242MardisclaimerMar36Mar035020212021Apr47Apr2021Apr0549MayMay52May14202244202250Jun2022JunJun324652JulJulJul20231320235050AugAug2023AugSepSepSepyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyOctOctOctNovNovNovPDecDecDec-60-40-20002040600020406080100120140160-120-100-80-60-40-2000204060SourceSourceSourcetertiaryChinaindustryinFigureprimaryChinaindustryinFigureFigureTWhTWhTWh100020003000400050006000700080009000100000012000001400000160000010012014020406080200000400000600000800000NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEANEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEA02019201902019---42647Jan007FebAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbytheAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerChinainproduction-4362JanFeb20202020242020Mar-01TablePageHeaderFeb97Mar34Apr41Mar103Apr20212021202139May71Apr116May98May38Jun121Jun202220222022100Jun38123JulJul98consumptionbytheJul36117AugAug20232023202392AugSepSepSepnryprtosSectorOperationsEnergyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyOctOctOctNovNovNovDecDecDec0020406080100120140-60-40-200020406080100120PagePage000510152025303540452ofof42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportEnergyOperationsSector能源运营行业18September2023SeSourceSourceinChinapowerSourceChinainhydropowerFigureFigureFigureTableSectorSubReportethTWhTWh100012001400100150200250e50200400600800NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEANEA0---las2019011972019254tGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiFeb-AccumulatedAccumulatedpowerbyproductionAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerbyproductionsolarpag34FebAccumulatedproductionpowerbypowerthermal278e-Mar2020Mar832020for-238disclaimer137AprApr-2021214192May2021May-229222JunJun2022-2022218216JulJul-159Aug233Aug2023TWh20231000200030004000500060007000SepSep20190Octyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoy-23FebOctyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyNov172020MarNovPDec40AprDec-250-200-150-100-5000202162May005010015020025030075Jun202275SourceSourceJulinChinainFigurepowerinChinapowerFigureTWh100200300400500600700800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