>> 国泰君安-Mengniu Dairy (02319 HK) 1H2023 Results Were Basically In-Line;Expecting Continuous Improvement In Operating Profit Margin, Reiterate “Buy”-230907
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研究报告全文：股票研陈思超CompanyTableTitleReportMengniuDairy02319HKAndyChen究85225092665EquityResearch公司报告蒙牛乳业02319HKandychengtjascomhk7September2023TableSummary1H2023ResultsWereBasicallyIn-LineExpectingContinuousImprovementInOperatingProfitMarginReiterateBuyReiterateBuyratingWeforecastMengniuDairystheCompanysales公revenuetorecorda3-yearCAGRof7from2022to2025WeforecastEPSRatingTableRankBuytoreachRMB147RMB170RMB198in2023-2025WethinkthatMengniuMaintained司Dairysoperatingprofitmarginexpansionisclearlyvisiblemainlyduetosales报miximprovementandoperationalexecutionexcellenceOurTPofHK3210评级买入维持isbasedon175x2024FPER告6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK3210CompanyReport1H2023resultswerebasicallyin-lineMengniuDairyssalesrevenuewasup71yoytoRMB51119mnin1H2023Shareholdersprofitdeclined195yoytoRMB3020mnIfexcludingone-offPLitemsshareholdersprofitwasSharePrice股价HK26650up43yoytoRMB3104mnExpectingfurtherupgradeinsalesstructurefortheliquidmilksegmentStockPerformanceBysegmenttheCompanysrevenuefromliquidmilkicecreammilkformula股价表现cheesewasRMB41640mnRMB4309mnRMB1894mnRMB2256mnupTableQuotePicofreturn50104003136yoyin1H2023Thesurgeinthecheesesegment250200wasduetotheconsolidationofMilkgroundChinaslargestcheesemakerfrom150December2022FortheliquidmilksegmentMilkDeluxecontinuedtodeliver100证double-digityoysalesgrowthwithitsDreamCapseriesleadingthedomestic50告券high-endorganicmilkcategoryin1H2023MengniuseriesbecametheNo100intermsofmarketshareofUHTmilksubcategoryinChinaMengniuDairys50研报freshmilksubcategorymaintainedrobustgrowthmomentumandthesalesof100究Shiny究Meadowrecordedadouble-digityoygrowthin1H2023despiterelatively150highcomparablebaseThemanagementaimstoincreasesalescontribution200报from研highvalue-addedproductsfortheliquidmilksegmenttosustainprofitable250Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23告growthFortheicecreamsegmenttheCompanyrapidlygainedmarketshare券HSIIndexMengniuDairyEquityResearchReportinSoutheastAsiancountriesitsAICEbrandsawfastervolumegrowthwithexpanded证profitmarginsForthemilkformulasegmentandcheesesegmentTablTablePriceChangewebelievethatfurtherconsolidationofmarketshareofitscorebrandssofarChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YeInfremainsapriorityontheCompanysagenda股价变动1个月3个月1年Abs45118167o1WeforecastMengniuDairysoperatingmargintorecordyoyincreaseof绝对变动食06ppt05ppt05pptin2023-2025In1H2023grossmarginrose18pptsReltoHSIndex1184128品yoyto384asaresultofsalesmiximprovementandrawmilkcostdecline相对恒指变动饮DuetomoreactiveAPandchannelinvestmentsSDexpenseratiowasupAvgSharePriceHK259281316平均股价港元料06pptyoyto272TogetherwithpositiveimpactfromtheconsolidationofSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational行MilkgroundtheCompanysoperatingmarginincreased11pptsyoyto64业Goingforwardweexpectdomesticrawmilkpricetostabilizesince2H2023andthemanagementwillcontinuetofocusonraisingROIofSDeffortsandFoodBeverageSectoroptimizingsupply-chainefficiencytosecuresteadyriseinitsprofitmarginsRisksunexpectedrawmilkpricemovementslower-than-expectedrecoveryindomesticdemandfordairyproductsfoodsafetyissuesTabYTablePrearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结ofit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率leI1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A8814150261274420170933623038218144中2022A92593530313425317610148230402171382023F9951558151472971671095022044118140蒙外2024F106130672017011561451218620051021147牛运2025F113495782219801641241363218059424153乳输TableBaseDataSharesinIssuem总股数m39420MajorShareholder大股东COFCO232业MarketCapHKm市值HKm1050000FreeFloat自由流通比率7513-MonthAverageVol3个月平均成交股数000105679FY23NetGearingFY23净负债股东资金42952WeeksHighLowHK52周高低HK3957624300FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元357MengniuHKDairy02319SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderMengniuDairy02319HKFigure-1ExpectingMengniuDairysliquidmilksalestoFigure-2ExpectingMengniuDairysoperatingprofitachievea3-yearCAGRof63from2022toshareholdersprofittoachievea3-yearCAGR1raMthgiRelbaT2025of156138from2022to2025RMBbnRMBmn120100006011080800040734110065407548600020902439697September20233962074957400008011427908469407026268812000-208286076578360276796780-405945018A19A20A21A22A23F24F25F18A19A20A21A22A23F24F25FOperatingProfitReportedShareholdersProfitLiquidMilkIceCreamMilkFormulaCheeseOthersYoYGrowthOPYoYGrowthRSPSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalFigure-3ExpectingMengniuDairysprofitmarginstoFigure-4Rawmilkpriceismorelikelytostabilizeduring2raMthgiRelbaTstepupin2023-20252H2023-2024RMBKg3763774037436736236837335346354430325423153153062528928828728540203815366974791056635563344253202319HK03013141516171819202122231415161718192021222318A19A20A21A22F23F24F25F13----------------------JulJulJulJulJulJulJulJulJulJulGPMSGARevOPMJulJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJanJan蒙牛乳业SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceiFinDGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-1PeerscomparisonLastMarketCapPERxPBRxDYROEGMOMCompanyTickerMengniuDairyPriceHKmn23F24F25F23F23F23F23F23FHongKongListedFoodandBeverageCompaniesNongfuSpring09633HKHKD438549315844338333316816403587322BudweiserAPAC01876HKHKD1676221959269225196251695514209TsingtaoBrewery00168HKHKD65651134561901621443028160382173ChinaResourcesBeer00291HKHKD45951490702582131794415178421175ChinaMengniuDairy02319HKHKD2665105000163140123221813636567ChinaFeihe06186HKHKD476431658476691560189641288AusnutriaDairy01717HKHKD3195742104817108508645983ChinaYouranDairy09858HKHKD15257693384634040032227161ChinaModernDairy01117HKHKD0755937743830052464248117WHGroup00288HKHKD40652091665148076010217761TingyiMasterKong00322HKHKD114264344170142124445926430665Uni-PresidentChina00220HKHKD56524404142126107177412030465WantWantChina00151HKHKD527626041621421313757216439211ZJLDGroup06979HKHKD1090356582001611255303281574298VitasoyInternational00345HKHKD98710589229558128435021547516ZhouHeiYaInternational01458HKHKD283674427015712715455152378HealthHappiness01112HKHKD98563597258490971128606136ReportNissinFoods01475HKHKD59361891421351331731108338121ChinaFoods00506HKHKD28078321228981125713035978WeilongDeliciousGlobal09985HKHKD726170691571321152519166454237SimpleAverage2931571253035146420148CompanyWeightedAverage3002442117725239481217SourceBloombergSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderMengniuDairy02319HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue881419259399515106130113495PPE1733519653215152353425741Costofsales5575259904634916712771161Constructioninprogress26194111325431293009Right-of-useassets21422783286130613276Grossprofit3239032690360243900342334Goodwillandotherintangibles1285721262212992134021495SDexpenses2348822347245802610827806Investmentinassociates15794103961070811029113607September2023Administrativeexpenses35244442408043514540Others1633422831235662442025351Otherincomeexpenses-net48767495710981Totalnon-currentassets6708181036832038651490231Operatingprofit48915833687078339007Cashcashequivalents1121712766205692540628241Financecosts-net2842602181264Inventories64858073737576697553ShareofGLfromassociates693409455505549Accountsreceivables41603660451942045124Prepaymentsotherreceivables42864640352437953871Profitbeforetax58686502710682139560Others48727638826085338816Incometax9051318142116431912Totalcurrentassets3102036777442484960753605Totalassets98101117813127452136121143837Profitaftertax496451855685657076482raMthgiRelbaTNon-controllinginterest62118130150174Borrowings42659095123061206011819Shareholdersprofitloss50265303581567207822Accountspayables88041020199751154211157Otherpayablesandaccruals1457613581126681292113180BasicEPSRMB12741342147217011980Others1426276245274306Totalcurrentliabilities2907233153351943679736462TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementBorrowings1878626106310253319735521Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOthers82448502814183038489Totalnon-currentliabilities2703034608391664149944010OperatingactivitiesTotalliabilities5610267761743607829680472PBT58686502710682139560DDA43342878349938084151Sharecapital36036036036036002319HKWorkingcapitalchanges145993254514841099Reserves3646639739429074779153505Others32131049134015011660Totalshareholdersequity3682640099432674815153865Cashgeneratedfromoperations8447926387191200410952Minorityinterest51749953982496749500Interestpaid8011044164716291562Totalequity4199950052530915782563365蒙牛乳业Incometaxpaid903930200117642085Cashfromoperatingactivities754583336718102408867TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosInvestingactivities2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FMengniuDairyPurchaseofPPE61254836434355476082Others9315100265339150148Revenuegrowth15951756669Cashfrominvestingactivities154401486299653975934Grossprofitgrowth131091028385EBITgrowth520193178140150FinancingactivitiesNetprofitgrowth4265596156164Netchangeinborrowingsdebts80138159816519272084Dividendspaid10711507159017442016Grossmargin367353362368373Others16925641235169167EBITmargin5563697479Cashfromfinancingactivities6773408853401498Netmargin5757586369ROE144138139147153Netchangesincash112324411305548562835ROA5649475156EffectofFXratechanges1143000Timedeposits31257072182118011802Cashconversioncycle193223224189175Cashatbeginningofyear9225809256931874823605Currentratiox1111131315Quickratiox0809101113Cashatendofyear1121712766205692540628241Netgearing282448429343301SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalPayoutratio300300300300300ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderMengniuDairy02319HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to57September2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months02319HK5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies蒙牛乳业DISCLAIMERMengniuDairyThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjaicomCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4
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