>> 国泰君安-China Hongqiao (01378 HK) The Most Pessimistic Period for Aluminum Price Has Passed -230822
| 上传日期： |
2023/8/23 |
大小： |
471KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共2页 |
来源： |
国泰君安 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
此报告为加密报告 |
|
|
研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteChinaHongqiao01378HKKevinGuo郭勇EquityResearch8675523976671快讯中国宏桥01378HKyongguogtjascomhk22August2023TableSummaryTheMostPessimisticPeriodforAluminumPriceHasPassed快讯FlashNoteWemaintaintheinvestmentratingofChinaHongqiaotheCompanyasBuywithTPofHK1056OurTPrepresents65x64xand67x2023-2025PERWeexpectaluminumpricetoreboundduetoimprovedfundamentalsandproductioncostsofprimaryaluminumtodeclineasrawmaterialpricestabilizesWebelievethemostpessimisticperiodforaluminumpricehaspassedandaluminumpricemaybedrivenbyChinasstimuluspoliciesAlthoughChinaseconomicindicatorsremainedweakcurrentlyanddownstreamconsumptionforaluminumhasnotimprovedthissituationwasfullypricedinbyinvestorsanddidnotfurtherweighonaluminumpriceProspectsforaluminumsupply-demandfundamentalsmayimproveinthe2ndhalfof2023asChinamayreleasemorestimuluspoliciesanddrivealuminumconsumptionBesideswebelievetheUSFederalReservesinterestratehikecycleisapproachingtheterminalpointwhichwillreducepressureon证aluminumprice券ChinaHongqiaosnetprofitsarehighlysensitivetofluctuationsinaluminumpriceChinaHongqiaohas研thelargestprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityintheworldandproducesabout6milliontonsofprimary告aluminumeachyearWithhighself-efficiencyratioofbauxitealuminaandelectricitytheCompanyhashigher究报costcontrolabilitythanitspeersespeciallyformaterialcostsforproducingprimaryaluminumHenceitsnet报profitsarehighlysensitivetochangesinaluminumpriceWeforecastthatifotherconditionsremainunchanged告究10changeinaluminumpricewillleadto39334050and4198changeinFY23FY24FY25netprofitsEquityResearchReport研respectivelyWebelieveChinaHongqiaowillbenefitmorethanitspeersfromariseinaluminumpriceTab券Thedropofnetprofitsin1H2023wasmainlyduetohighproductioncostsandloweraluminumpriceleI证TotalnetprofitsoftheCompanydecreased687yoytoRMB246billionin1H2023mainlyduetorising有nfo1productioncostsandloweraluminumpriceTheASPofaluminumdecreased138yoytoRMB16284tandthe色ASPofaluminadecreased54yoytoRMB2516tChinaHongqiaosgrossmarginofaluminumandaluminain金1H2023wasdown13pptsand14pptsto87and89in1H2023respectivelyTotalsalesofaluminum属increased57yoyto2824milliontonsandtotalsalesofaluminaincreased336yoyto5378milliontons行业WeexpecttheprofitabilityofChinaHongqiaotoimproveinthe2ndhalfof2023TheproductionoftheCompanyremainedstablein1H2023andtheprofitabilityoftheCompanywasseriouslyerodedbyhighNonferrousSectorMetalsproductioncostsWeexpectrawmaterialpricesespeciallycoalpricetostabilizeinthe2ndhalfof2023andthustheproductioncostsoftheCompanyisexpectedtostabilizeCatalystsRiseinaluminumpricestabilizingcoalpriceTabRisksDeclineinaluminumpricelimitedproductionduetoelectricitysupplyproblemleInfo2中中外国运宏输桥ChinaHKHongqiao01378SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of2TablePageHeaderChinaHongqiao01378HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable2023Accumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to52Augustorthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutral2Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport01378HK4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国宏桥6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaHongqiaoThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of2
|
|
