>> 国泰君安-Morning Brief-230908
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2023/9/8 |
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国泰君安 |
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研究报告全文：S0880514030001p1报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版dingdangtjascomTPRMB1726TPRMB5174TPRMB1478COReport23976735OWOWViewpoint0755Special601126Month002129002674theWeeklySectorBrief2023ofth8LeatherAutomationStrategyZhonghuanDanRatingsReportsRecommendationsConstructionXingyeTCLSifangDINGLatestSectorMarketTop报告为准本报告内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报ContentsSeptemberMorningMarketResearchMorningBriefTopRecommendationsConstructionSectorSpecialReportIntimeofgovernmenteffortstoleveloffGDPgrowthbymeansofboostinginfrastructureinvestmenttheleadingSOEengineeringcompaniesarealwaysabletorealizebetteramountofnewbusinessordersandfasterprofitgrowthAsaresulttheirstockpricesaremoreabletooutperformthestockmarketaverageAtpresentverylowstockvaluationoftheconstructionsectorhasenabledittoenjoybiggerreboundinfutureInthehighseasonofrealestatesalesinSeptemberandOctoberthearrivalofbothpolicysupportandfinancialresourceswillspeeduptheprogressoftheirengineeringprojectsaswellastheirprofitgrowthOfSOEswerecommendChinaRailway601390ChinaCommunicationsConstruction601800ChinaRailwayConstruction601186ChinaConstructionEngineering601668andMetallurgicalCorpofChina601618OfthecompaniesinvolvedinBeltRoadInitiativewerecommendXinjiangCommunicationsConstruction002941SinomaIntl600970NorincoIntl000065SinosteelEngineering000928andCAMCEngineering002051XingyeLeather002674OWTPRMB1478RatingOWPrvNATPRMB1478PrvNAMPRMB1201MktCapRMB3505mnDespitethemarketconcernovertherisingcompetitionsamongautomotiveleathertrimsuppliersthatmaystoptheCompanyssustainablebusinessgrowthwebelievetheCompanysflexiblepricingandquickserviceresponsewillenabletheCompanytoconsolidateitsleadingmarketshareandrealizesustainablegrowthWeforecasttheCompanys20232025EPSofRMB083106and129BasedonbothPEandDCFvaluationmethodswesuggesttargetpriceofRMB1478andOverweightratingLatestReportsTCLZhonghuan002129OWTPRMB5174RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB5174PrvRMB5174MPRMB2485MktCapRMB100460mnTheCompanys2023H1resultswereinlinewithexpectationFastriseofbatterymodulesalesrisinggrossmarginofsiliconwaferandhightechnicalbarrierswillconsolidatetheCompanysleadingpositioninindustryWemaintainourforecastsoftheCompanys20232025EPSofRMB261331and409andmaintaintargetpriceofRMB5174andOverweightratingSifangAutomation601126COTPRMB1726RatingCOPrvNATPRMB1726PrvNAMPRMB1560MktCapRMB12685mnp2TheCompanyisaleadingmanufacturerofelectricpowersecondaryequipmentinChinaFastdevelopmentofalternativeenergyinfrastructurewillboostthedemandfromthedownstreampowergenerationandpowersystemindustriesWeforecast26theCompanys20232025revenueofRMB6385bn257yoy8371bn311yoyand11169bn334yoyBasedontheprincipleofprudenceandalsotakingintoaccountthestablegrowthoftheCompanyspowergridandpowergenerationrelatedbusinesseswesuggest2023PEof2115xandcorrespondingtargetpriceofRMB1726CautiouslyOverweightrating897154p336SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateSeptember3rd2023AShareStrategyWeeklyTradingOpportunitiesAreEmergingWhenclosetomarketbottomopportunitiesoverwhelmrisksDespitethehugevolatilitiesofAsharemarketthisweekthepromulgationofnewrealestatepoliciesfurtherdismissedmarketpanicWhenclosetomarketbottomopportunitieswilloverwhelmrisksmarginallyAndthelatestUSlabormarketglobalmonetaryliquidityandUSChinaandAustraliaChinarelationswillhelptoreduceexternaluncertaintiesandcurbforeigncapitaloutflowAnywaythemarketmayprobablyenterrangefluctuationslaterduetothelowquantitativeexpectationsandthepolarizedriskappetitesThestockswithbettermicrostructureshavebetterchancewhennearthemarketbottomSincemostofthegoodnewsandbadnewshavebeenbothpricedintheopportunitieswillprobablyarisefrommarkettransactionsratherthanfrommarketexpectationsThestockscharacterizedwithdeepdevaluationhighturnoversmallpositionsofpessimisticinvestorsandmarginalstimulusegpolicysupporttechnologicaladvanceorchangeofinventoryorcompetitorstructurewillenjoymoretradingopportunitiesSMEstocksandthematicinvestmentstockswillcontinuetobebetteroffthanlargecapstocksthankstolittledangerofdownwardearningsforecastsadjustmentsupontheendof2023interimreportseasonthepromulgationofnewrulesonequityholdingreductionandtheactivetradingofhighriskappetiteinvestorsHighendequipmentandmanufacturingsectorswillleadtheriseofsciencetechgrowthstockslaterandhighdividendstocksremainagoodchoiceformediumtermholdingOfwhichweprefer1lowstockvaluationbottombusinesslifecycleimportsubstitutionmodernindustrialsystemdevelopmentelectronicmachineryandwarindustrysectors2SOEbackgroundfranchiseormonopolyadvantageslowcapitalexpenditureshighdividenddistributiontelecomoperatorsoilandpetrochemicalsandpublicutilitiessectors3lowstockvaluationmacroeconomicrecoveryfriendlyrealestatepoliciesconsumersectorsp4AsforinvestmentthemesandindividualstockswepreferthoseinvolvedinhighendequipmentHuaweiindustrialchaindataelementandSOEreformsOfsubsectorsandfeaturedcompanieswerecommend1highendequipment46semiconductorJingceElectronic300567robotMoonsElectric603728machinetoolsNeway688697energyDevelopAdvancedManufacturing6883772HuaweiindustrialchainhardwareDigitalChina000034WUSPrintedCircuit002463MaxscendMicroelectronics300782satelliteinternetHwaCreate300045HaigeCommunications0024653dataelementtelecomoperatorsChinaMobile600941dataserviceseGova300075ZhongfuInfo3006594SOEreformselectricityoperationChuantouEnergy600674oilshippingNanjingTanker601975Majorrisksweakerthanexpectedrecoveryofdomesticdemandglobalgeopoliticaluncertainties56GTJAsRatingsonStockOverweightOWStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300byover15inthenext12monthsCautiouslyOverweightCOStockisexpectedtooutperformCSI300by515inthenext12monthsNeutralNTStockisexpectedtoperformwithin55ofCSI300inthenext12monthsUnderweightUWStockisexpectedtounderperformCSI300byover5inthenext12monthsGTJAsRatingsonIndustryOverweightOWIndustrialindexisexpectedtooutperformCSI300inthenext12monthsNeutralNTIndustrialindexisexpectedtogoalmostwithCSI300inthenext12monthsUnderweightUWIndustrialindexisexpectedtounderperformCSI300inthenext12monthsGuotaiJunanSecuritiesShanghaiOffice20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdShanghai200041Tel862138676666ShenzhenOffice27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRdShenzhen518026Tel8675523976888BeijingOffice18FSouthTowerFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialStreetBeijing100132Tel861083939888WebsitewwwgtjacomEMAILgtjaresearchgtjascomDisclaimerThisreportissubmittedtoforthereferenceofselectedclientsandotherprofessionalinvestorsanddoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertosubscribeforbuyorsellsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesThoughbesteffortshavebeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisresearchreportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinUndernocircumstanceshallGuotaiJunanbeliabletoanyconsequenceofinvestorsinvestmentdecisionbasedonthisreportGuotaiJunananditsaffiliatedorassociatedinstitutionsmayatanytimeholdatradingpositionoforprovideinvestmentbankingfinancialconsultationorotherservicestoanysubjectcompanydiscussedinthisreportAnyunauthorizeddistributionandorcirculationofthisreportorthecopythereofbeyondtheintendedscopewouldresultinpossibleviolationofpertinentsecuritieslaws66
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