>> 国泰君安-Zijin Mining (02899 HK) Mining Output Growth Continued, Maintain “Buy”-230907
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研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleKevinGuo郭勇CompanyReportZijinMining02899HK究8675523976671EquityResearch公司报告紫金矿业02899HKyongguogtjascomhk7September2023TableSummaryMiningOutputGrowthContinuedMaintainBuy公MaintainBuyinvestmentratingofZijinMiningtheCompanyandRatingTableRankBuy司maintaintheTPatHK1570ConsideringmetalpricefluctuationandrisingMaintained报productioncostsoftheCompanysoverseasminesduetoinflationwerevisedown20232024EPSestimationtoRMB086RMB105andadd2025EPS评级买入维持告estimationofRMB128WebelievetheCompanyscopperandgoldassetsCompanyReportareattractiveduringthehighinflationperiodsowemaintaintheBuy6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK1570investmentratingoftheCompanyandmaintaintheTPatHK1570Revisedfrom原目标价HK1570MiningoutputoftheCompanymaintainedfastgrowthbuttheShareprice股价HK13020profitabilitywasimpactedbymetalpricefluctuationandrisingcostsTotalrevenueoftheCompanyincreased135yoytoRMB1503billionin告1H2023butnetprofitdecreased253yoytoRMB486billionProductionStockperformance证报minedcoppergoldzincsilveroutputincreased1420511in股价表现1H2023ASPASPofcoppergoldzincsilverchanged-810-33券TableQuotePic究6in1H2023Productioncostsproductioncostsofcoppergoldzincofreturn研800silverincreased15191812in1H2023Theinterimresultsofthe700研究Companywasgenerallyinlinewithexpectationsandthedeclineinnetprofit600500券wasmainlyattributabletorisingproductioncostsandlowercopperandzinc报400prices证300告200EquityResearchReportZijinMiningisstillinthestageoffastexpandingsupportedbymore100miningoutputfromitsexistingminesandnewlyacquiredminesMining00outputsfromKamoacopperminePhaseIIJulongcoppermineRosebel100BinduliandShanxiZijinaregrowingfastcurrentlyTheCompanyacquired200TabtheZhunuocoppermineinXizangProvincerecentlyandisexpectedtoadd300Sep-22Nov-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Sep-23leI100000tonsofminedcopperproductioncapacityZijinMininghas75millionHSIIndexZijinMiningnfo1tonsofcoppermineralresourcesand3100tonsofgoldmineralresourceswhichwillstronglysupportitsfuturedevelopmentandcashflow有CopperandgoldassetsareattractiveunderoverseashighinflationTablePriceChange色ChangeinSharePrice1M3M1YenvironmentsThemoveupofoverseasinflationbenchmarkfrom2023is金股价变动1个月3个月1年thetrendandcopperandgoldpricesareexpectedtostayhighZijinMiningAbs09142486属holdsseveralhigh-qualitycoppergoldminesandisstillexpandingwe绝对变动行ReltoHSIndex65176526believetheCompanyisstillattractive相对恒指变动业AvgsharepriceHK125123112RisksFluctuationofcopperandgoldpricesmaybelargerthanexpected平均股价港元theconstructionofnewprojectsmaydelaySourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalNonferrousSectorMetalsTableTabYearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROE年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率leI1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A2251021567305951324178269839020019012022A2703292004207612791513378340343302512023F296015227100863134139385231038832239紫2024F3327762774510542211144432270474392542025F36903033688128021494513623057648267金矿SharesTableBaseDatainissuem总股数m263293122Majorshareholder大股东XinhangInvestment263市值自由流通比率业MarketcapHKmHKm3428076448Freefloat7373monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数000242008FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金99152WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK148007180FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元186ZijinMining02899ZijinHKSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderZijinMining02899HKTable-1PeersComparison1raMthgiRelbaTPEPBROECompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastprice22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23FBarrickGoldCorpABXCNCAD21726951791391401212111173NewcrestMiningLtdNCMAUAUD25671802151721681413121157NewmontMiningCorpNEMUSUSD3884na1891481631614131375AnglogoldAshantiLtdANGSJZAr3180500274132929219161312127KinrossGoldCorpKCNCAD664na126141181101009na79September2023GoldFieldsLtdGFISJZAr23262001781229093292319172027SimpleAverage33216013013917151313102WeightedAverage931751381451614131290ZijinMiningGroupCoLtd-A601899CHCNY13061721591269739322621219ShandongGoldMiningCoLt-A600547CHCNY25549594763712693533322871ZhongjinGoldCorp-A600489CHCNY110025219417916821201817100SimpleAverage46127722517831282522130WeightedAverage346230183141363127221752raMthgiRelbaTZhaojinMiningIndustry-H01818HKHKD11107764052751922820191753ZijinMiningGroupCoLtd-H02899HKHKD13021471351148734292419231ChinaGoldInternationalRes02099HKHKD34107731860570909080828ShandongGoldMiningLtd-H01787HKHKD15344952592071501818171570SimpleAverage3742791641222219171595WeightedAverage26318514310730262118179SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational02899HK紫金矿业ZijinMiningReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderZijinMining02899HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue225102270329296015332776369030NetPPE7414594613106834119381131351COGS190351227784248793276323302122Netintangibles4753168280692806978070280Grossprofit3475142545472225645266908Others3037652961541535537656629SGA649112384141011595217764TotalNon-currentAssets161530226400241656256837271545Otherincomeandexpenses1669485531597662September2023OperatingProfit2659130645336524109749807CashCashEquivalents14222202441924121630258327Financecosts14961905250028003000Tradereceivables383112302503856636280Others3012205283332233608Inventories1930928104253922854531655ProfitBeforeTax2479430946339854152050415Others970318994208942298325281IncomeTax51946178592172348784TotalCurrentAssets4706479644705647882289048profitAfterTax1960024767280643428641631Non-controllingInterest39274725535465417942TotalAssets208595306044312220335659360593ShareholdersProfitLoss1567320042227102774533688BasicEPS05950761086310541280Short-termborrowings2785631852398133130120493Tradepayables2070227001272233060433938Others174412317135481490316393TotalCurrentLiabilities50302711708058576808708252raMthgiRelbaTTableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FLong-termborrowings3612768820475085340759226Netincome1567320042227102774533688Bondpayable1424723871262582888331772ChangesinWC18511096710199398393Others1502117729180831844518814Adjustfordepreamort47845561709680138954TotalNon-currentLiabilities6539511041991848100736109811Others133001169199042026120085CashfromOperatingActivities3560713466599095562162334TotalLiabilities115698181589172433177544180636TotalShareholdersEquity7103488943101433116693135222Capex1548817393198172106021423MinorityInterest2186335513383544142244736Others1664815816150251427413560TotalEquity92897124455139787158115179957CashfromInvestingActivities3213633209348423533434984TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosShareissue00000Netbankborrowings55583668913351261249892021A2022A2023F2024F2025F02899HKDividendpaid52669019102191248515160GrossMargin154157160170181Others14961905250028003000NetMargin7074778391CashfromFinancingActivities120525765260701789823149ROE246251239254267紫金矿业NetChangesinCash22666022100323894202ROA8078738697CashatBegofYear1195514222202441924121630ROCE166140158171184Foreignexchangeratechanges00000FreeCFmnRmb201193927400923456140911ZijinMiningCashatEndofYear1422220244192412163025832NetGearing10031304991843680SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderZijinMining02899HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5September20237orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport02899HK6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies紫金矿业DISCLAIMERZijinMiningThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4
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