研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk12September2023TableMainInfoBiweeklyUpdateMetalDemandMayHittheBottomAnd行MetalPricesArePoisedtoRebound业报Consumptiondemandofbasemetalsmayhitthebottomandmetal告ReportSectorpricesarepoisedtoreboundAlthoughthegovernmenthasreleasedTableInvestInfoRatingOutperformseveralsupportivepoliciesChinaseconomicdatafromthepropertysectorMaintaineddidnotimprovelastweekTheUSjobsmarketstartedtoweakenandthecycleofinterestratehikesisapproachingtheterminalpointGenerally评级跑赢大市维持speakingbasemetalsarestillintheconsumptionpeakseasonandtheir2inventoryisstilllowWebelievebasemetalpricesarepoisedtoreboundNonferrousmetalssectorperformanceThelowinventorylevelofprimealuminumcontinuedandthesignalof400returnconsumptionimprovementemergedTotalprimaryaluminumproductioncapacityinYunnanProvincewasincreasedto550milliontonswhichis200almostallofthecapacitythatcouldbeutilizedcurrentlyAluminumconsumptiondemandimprovedslightlylastweekandthecapacityutilization证ratesofaluminumfabricatingcompaniesincreasedslightly00告券Copperpriceissuppressedbytherisingdollarindexbutdomestic-200研stimulus报policiesmayofferstrongsupportInAugustChinasrefinedcopperoutputincreased7month-over-monthto099milliontonsas究究-400severalcoppersmeltersresumedproductionaftermaintenanceWeexpectJan23Feb23Mar23Apr23May23Jun23Jul23Aug23ResearchReport报copper研pricetobesupportedbydomesticstimuluspoliciescopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin告WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetals券SourceBloombergEquitysectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium00098证HKandZijinMining02899HKTab有色l金e属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7See54321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098WInpoliciescompaniesrodcoppermonthCopperpriceCopperbyaluminuminventoryDomesticincreasedAsideDemandweeklastimpactwhichmonthscomingtheinstableProductioncapacitysideSupplyemergedAluminumstillinpeakaretheconsumptionseasontheirandinventoryismarketstartedtheincreasedstimulatecityrenovationetcIntheoverseasmarketmarginallyimproveddemandconsumptionbaseofhitthemaymetalsPMIbottomandthedatathePPIanddecreaseyoy30bothareinlinewithexpectationsandgCUpdateSectorthGrowthofrateConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainecontinuemayovernmenthaluminumconsumptiondemandconsumptionluminumnupineadfaeeasahthbtoadeapieaeosdoreboundtopoisedarepricesmetalandbottomthehitmaymetalsbaseofdemandonsumptionvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineChinasmacroUSDe2ownstreamratelas4marketparticipantss000tonsFederalReserveFederalinterestratehike-isistoveronpagalmostallfdeclinofCopperpriceissuppressedbyrisingdollarindexbutdomesticstimuluspoliciesmayofferstrongsupportstrongoffermaypoliciesstimulusdomesticbutindexdollarrisingbysuppressedispriceCopperwhichiswhichgenerallyflattotalsupplyofprimealuminumislimitedTotalslightlye-monthto0tomonthfohlwnetrlevelinventorylowThedeclinedrOutperformmarketsmarketstotoweakenandthecycleofinterestratehikesdisclaimertoconsumptiondemandreleasedseveraleconomiceconomicn0ethecapacitythatcouldbeutilizedcurrentlyewenergyvehiclesbemaylowermarketthanexpectationsP52resumptioninYusbetterisroductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingcompanieswascompaniesfabricatingaluminumleadingofrateutilizationcapacityroductionBesidesthegovernmentmayreleasemorestimuluspoliciessuchasfurtherreleasepropertypolicypolicypropertyreleasefurtherassuchpoliciesstimulusmorereleasemaygovernmenttheBesides304millionmilliontonswasconcernoninflationwhichmaywhichinflationonconcernarestillwaitingAsaresultbasemetalpricesdeclinedslightlyChinasCPIincrease01yoyinAugust99sweekgrowthbemayratemilliontonsmillioninvestmentratingforratinginvestmentupTotalprimaryaluminumproductionaluminumprimaryTotalthanremainedlowremainedand128improvedslightlyimprovedsupportivepolicies-overtheZijinandpptstopptsnmaynanProvince--asseveralcoppersmeltersresumedproductionaftermaintenanceafterproductionresumedsmelterscopperseveralasaluminumbarMining02899HKs45iJladlobetteralsoandJulyin145weektoUS8ofprimealuminumaluminumprimeofmaybemaybe7025TlowerthanhePlowerthanmarketlowerthanmarketexpectationsthetheShanghaiMetalsMarketMetalsShanghailastweekWeexpeWeweeklasthigherthanhigherlastweeklasthaChinaseconomicdatafromthepropertysectorsnonferrousSaudiArabiaextendedoilproductioncutanins242creasedalmostcompleteddisturbinvestorsexpectationonfutureinterestratinterestfutureonexpectationinvestorsdisturbprimaryaluminumexpected5sisapproachingtheterminalpointGettlastweekTexpectedstillstillandcapacityutilizationrateutilizationcapacityandhereheremaybesomeproductioncutinShandongProvinceChinastotalexportotneandcontinuedbymetalslowWebelievebelievelowmetalbasepricesarepoisedtoreboundWecapacityinYunnanProvincewasliftedto550milliontonsmillion550toliftedwasProvinceYunnanincapacity12200sectorthanInctcopperpricetobebetopricecopperctandChinasAugusttonsSMMproductioncapacitytheTablePageHeadertotalprimaryaluminumsupplyisexpectedtobeWto0hsgaocnupinimprovementconsumptionofsignalthecommercialinventoryofaluminumofinventorycommercialerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HK01378HongqiaoChinarecommendeChinasrefinedcopperoutputincreasedmarketsexportdecreaseddecreased88yoyUSto28447billion08milliontonsmillionsdataofaluminumfabricatingcompaniescompaniesfabricatingaluminumofexpectationofofexpectationpropertysalesandCPIalldatasupportedbysupportedofChinanerallyspeakingbasemetalsdddroveoilpricedidnotimprovelastweekofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrousupwas4279-ecute0WbelieveWe95domestic2TheutilizationofutilizationThepptsto63topptsslhuhtheAlthoughTheUSjobUSThesmillionmilliontonshigherandinPagePagestcreasedbutimulus277theofof7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业12September2023SeeSourceTableSourceTablePricethelasSHFE--andandInventoryMetalsBaseofLMESHFEBloombergBloombergt21LMEAluminumAluminumAluminumAluminumpagCopperCopperCopperCopperChangeChangeChangeNickelNickelNickelNickelLeadLeadLeadLeadZincZincZincZincTinTinTinTineUSttonsfoRMBttonsrGuotaiGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaidisclaimerininmetalinventorymetalpriceJunanInternationalJunan202320239112023911202391116685016685022004014342514342549947513412568620686202005220052255732119016825189005297552975465796004188445549553798037980244424442228218482436815681549688193911P2485307416001795---------------020218665070787470303145131248265024030060148111661429137129wowwowwowwowTablePageHeader-------17915624579838272075-192562037184182533277034107926151595253114386093334063347519mommommommomofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrous---2812520831620223012451061------12792286126044548621441548972719410251104911562908263310775462448697yoyyoyyoyyoyPagePage3ofof7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业12September2023SeFigureFigureFiguree1000012000CSourceSourceSourceSourceBloomberg400060008000200010001500200025003000thopper100012001400160018002000500e0Sep-220las---t531InternationalCopperStudyGroupStudyCopperInternationalGroupStudyCopperInternationalpagJanSector000tons000GlobalmonthlyGlobalrefinedofcopperdemandmonthlyGlobalprimeofcopperoutputpricecopperandLMEinventory000tons000LMELMEcopperinventorytonseNov-22foFeb2019rdisclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiMarJan-23Apr2020monthlymonthlydemandMayMar-23Jun2021JulMay-23GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiLMELMEcopperpriceUStAug2022yoySepJul-23OctP2023Sep-23Nov020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000200000Dec-150-100-5000501001502002504000050000600007000080000100002000030000200022002400-25000-20000-15000-1000010001200140016001800FigureFigureFigure10000150002000025000-50005000SourceSourceBloombergSourceSourceSource0000Sep-22Jan000tons000---426InternationalCopperStudyGroupStudyCopperInternationalGroupStudyCopperInternationalSHFEcopperinventorytons000tons000Nov-22GpriceandinventorySHFEcopperGFeb2019loballoballobalcoppersupplylobalTablePageHeaderMarGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJan-23monthlyrefinedcopperofoutputApr2020MayMar-23Jun2021May-23Jul-SHFEcopperpriceRMBtSHFEpricecopperdemanddemandGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiInternationalJunanGuotaiAugofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrous2022Jul-23SepbalanceOctSep-232023Nov050000100000150000200000250000300000PagePageDec4ofof7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业12September2023SeFigureFigureFigureeAluminumSectorSourceBaichuanInfoSourceBaichuanInstituteAluminumSourceInternationalSourceBloomberg100015002000250030003500th20002500300035004000500e0Sep-22las---t1197000tons000pagJanLMELMEaluminuminventorytonsMonthlyLMEProductioncostsProductiondistributionChinassmeltersofeNov-22Febfo2019raludisclaimerGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiMarminumpriceandminumpriceandinventoryaluGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJan-23AprminumoutputofminumChina2020MayMar-23Jun2021GuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJulMay-23LMELMEaluminumUStpriceAug2022SepJul-23OctP2023Sep-23Nov1750016500-1750015500-1650015500Dec0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000以上以下10000150002000025000550060004000450050005000FigureFigureFigureSourceSourceBloombergSourceBaichuanInfoSourceBaichuanSource0Sep-22JanSHFEaluminuminventorytonsinventorySHFEaluminum---000tons00010812InternationalAluminumInstituteAluminumInternationalNov-22SHFEaluminumpriceandinventorySHFEaluminumFeb2019MonthlyElectricitysmeltersofdistributioncostsTablePageHeaderMarGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiJan-23AprGuotaiJunanGuotai2020aluMayminumoutputminumMar-23Jun2021InternationalJulMay-23SHFEpricealuminumRMBtGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiAugofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrous2022Jul-23SepglobalOct2023Sep-23Nov055-0605-055045-0504-045035-04035050000100000150000200000250000300000350000PagePageDec以下5ofof7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业12September2023948288218148773172471771073625618612655295225155851424417410433273203133322722021326130119121226D16ateSe-----------9881176685115546392911215surveyFigure------------------------eSourceSourceTable91825818847287247146296226156152551842742041333032331632223216221195000550060006500700075008000-SourceSource1229thelas--SMMt313SMMpag88-811industryaverageSMMSMM822-825SMMaluminumfabricationindustrySMMrateutilizationGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaieGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotai95-98fo637063506360637063906340634062906310633063806390639064206410641064206470638065506530653065206470644064206320630061806150598057405614062806340r919-922610aluminumdisclaimer1010-10131024-1027117-11101121-1124125-1281219-1222fabricationindustryratesurveyutilizationrecycledaluminum12-15116-11926-29506048604860486049304960496049604960503050305030503049004960496049604960440049805010501050105040504050405040494047504750444039403490049004940380220-22333-39320-32343-46417-42051-55515-518529-61aluminumwireP612-615584059005900580058005800564058405840584058005600560055005300530050005000470042004572057605760614060406040600060005900586057805780578058205840625-629600710-714724-72887-811821-82594-98primaryaluminum100020003000400050006000700080009000utilizationratesurveyutilizationFigure000550055500570057005160516051605160516054605460546054605460546054605460550055005500550055005500562056205620562056205620562056205620562056205500SourceSource500average-industry14SMMMauiufbiainindustryfabricationaluminumSMMTablePageHeaderGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaialuminumrecycledextrusionproductsaluminum555045450593062306340667067306760673061606190617062006250650066006600675066506700675066706670680066006600660065006400635060506000580058005750thisthisweek950wirealuminumprimarylastweeklastextrusionplateproductsofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrous730077300744074407600754075407600760076007600744074407440744074807440744074407480758078007940794079407940794079407880788078207820778077007540300sheetplateandsheetaluminumaluminumfoilfoilPagePage7930786078607860794079407940794080408040804079707970803080308030803081008140814081408140814081408110811081108110811080407940794077940794079909406ofof7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSector有色金属行业12September2023SeTel852250927FLowBlockGrandGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesanytoregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionwoulduseoravailabilitypublicationdistributionsuchwherejurisdictionanyorcitizenaiswhoentityorpersonanybyuseortodistributionforintendedordirectedatnotisResearchReportThiswherandrisksrelateditsandconsulttheirownfinancialadvisersprioranobjectivestoinvestmentthecomprehendandunderstandshouldInvestorscontainmayuncertaintyandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconoguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforwardefforthasbestThoughensurebeentoaccuracytheinformationmadeoftheanddatacontainedthisincontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsbymadeassetthemanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanexpressedopinionsAnycompaniesofgroupJunanGuotaiofexecutivesprofessionalotheranddealerspersonswinororallyexpressedstrategiesinvestmentoropinionstocontrarybeordiffermayreportthisinexpressedopinionsAnyservicesproprietarilyinvestmentbankinginvestmentincludingaJunanGuotaiJunanGuotaiLimitedKongResearchReportdThisDISCLAIMER654321DISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkSectorRatingHorizonTimeto618monthsTheBenchmarkCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionTableSectorSubReportTableSectorRatingDefinitionTabledisclosure2023ReduceNeutralAccumulateBuyUnderperformNeutralOutperformSelletheReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanandgroupitscompannothavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiResthisinmentionedissuertheofrespectinsecuritiestheinmarketReportamakingnotarecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiResearchReportwithinprecedingthe12monthswithrelationshipsbankinginvestmenthadhavecompaniesgroupitsandJunanGuotaiResearchReportgroupitsandJunanGuotaiTheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdohavenotanyfinancialinterestsrelationintotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReTGuotailasRatingDefinitionheAnalyststRatingDefinitionpagJunanSecuritiesHongKonge-18Fax85225099118foHongKongHangSengIndexHongKongHangSengIndexr跑输大市中性跑赢大市卖出减持中性收集买入disclaimerandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportoesMillenniumnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquiresubscribepurchasenottobsecuritiesofferorforanconstituteinvitationororRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformanceorRelativePerformance5ortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformanceortRelativePerformance15DefinitionDefinitioncompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisinmentionedissuertheofcapitalizationmarkettheof1thanmoreortoequalholdnotdocompaniesPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongtheththeheheheheheefundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamentalfundamental-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkyinvestmentdecisionLimitedAllRightsReservednditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusidomaygroupcompaniesitsndoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlookoutlooktfrxmlhpaiggnedaaepnonewieoinvestorunderwritersponsormanagerleadagentplacingtheexampleforetcisisisisPemployedanindividualservinga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