研究报告全文：SFCLicAVV666SFCLic310noahhudsongtjascomhkTPHKDTPRMB938BuyOWOW25095441-8523202ndSectorUpdateReportReportUpdateSectorSkyverse688361OWTPRMB10680688361OWSkyverse000683EnergyXingYuanHK01798RenewableDatangBuildingMaterialsSectorUpdateReportReportUpdateSectorBuildingMaterialsTireReportUpdateShippingSectorOceanReportSpecialAutomobileSectorBondMarketUpdateReportReportUpdateBondMarketReportUpdateSectorEstateRealNoahHudsonNoahMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointWeeklyStrategyMarketSectorRatingsoftheMonththeofRatingsSectorLatestReportsLatestTopRecommendationsTopSeptember22September本报告部分内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准本报告仅在中国香港地区使用ContentsMorningBriefMarketResearchMorningBriefTopRecommendationsBondMarketUpdateReportInlinewithmarketexpectationFOMCskippedinteresthikeagainthisSeptemberAnotherinteresthikeisanticipatedbeforethisyearendTheprolongedinteresthikebyFedReserveaimstomanipulatemarketexpectationsTheinterestratesofUSbondsmaystayhighforsometimeandRMBexchangeratemayfluctuateFedsinteresthikeisnowclosetotheendbuthasnotstoppedyetMeanwhileeconomicresilienceandinflationwillprobablysustainhighUSbondyieldsAlthoughtheinterestmarginbetweenUSDandRMBishighChinabondmarkethasbecomerelativelyinsensitivetoitTakenintoaccountmultiplefactorssuchasslowercapitaloutflowofChinasecuritiesmarketrelativelycontrollableexitofdirectinvestmentsmallerdemandfromcurrentaccountdemandandtheremarksandpoliciesofPBoCandSAFEtheRMBexchangerateagainstUSDmaystayaround731forsometimewithtwo-waymovementsRealEstateSectorUpdateReportAmongfirst-tiercitiesGuangzhouwasthefirsttoeasehomepurchaserestrictionsAlthoughitsrealinfluencesonneighboringcitiesarelimitedbecauseGuangzhoudoesnotbelongtocoreareasitwillhelptostrengthenrealestatemarketconfidenceTherecentfrequentlaunchingofsmall-steppolicysupportsinfirst-tiercitieshasdemonstratedtheauthoritysintentiontostabilizerealestatemarketInthenextquarterrealestatesalesmaygoupmarginallyseeingtothehowfarthemortgageratereductionwillgoOffeaturedcompaniesweprefertherealestatedevelopersinfirst-tiercitiessuchasCapitalDevelopment600376andMetroLand600683TheleadingcompaniessuchasPolyDevelopment600048arestillgoodformedium-termholdingThroughouttheyear2023werecommendindustrialparkcompaniessuchasChina-SingaporeSuzhouIndustrialPark601512andCMShekouIndustrialZone001979BuildingMaterialsSectorUpdateReportTherecenteasingofhomepurchaseandmortgagerestrictionsinfirst-tiercorecitiessuchasNanjingmaybefollowedbyfurtherpolicyeasingWhentherainyseasonfromlate-Julytoearly-AugustwasoverthebusinessfundamentalsofbuildingmaterialsindustryhavebottomedoutAsthehighseasonofhomesalesinSeptemberandOctoberwillarrivesoonthedeliveryofcementandglasshasalreadystartedtoincreaseThelatest2023interimreportsalsorevealedthattheleadingbuildingmaterialscompanieshavealreadyrecoveredfromtheimpactsofrealestatemarketorhavebecomesafeinstockvaluationorpromisinginbusinessoutlookOffeaturedcompanieswemaintainourrecommendationsofOrientalYuhongWaterproof002271WeixingNewBuildingMaterials002372BNBM000786DarePowerDekorHome000910Dehuatb002043Kibing601636andXinyiGlass0868HKOfcementproducerswemaintainourrecommendationsofConch29Cement600585andShangfengCement000672WemaintainourrecommendationsoftheworldleadingmanufacturersincludingChinaJushi600176FuyaoGlass600660andXinyiGlass0868HKTireSectorUpdateReportIntheshortrunbetterproductionsalesandexportwillcontinuetoimprovethebusinessresultsofrelevantlistedcompaniesInthemediumandlongrunChinesetiremanufacturerswillbeabletooccupythemarketsharesofoverseaspeersthankstotheirgrowingproductioncapacitiesandcost-efficientproductsOffeaturedcompanieswerecommendSailun601058SenturyTire002984andLinglongTyre601966OceanShippingSectorUpdateReportTheunexpectedriseofdemandandthebottleneckofsupplywillbringasuperbullmarketofoilshippingindustryTheglobalcrudeoiltradingisonthewayofrestructuringandhighoilpriceswilldepressshort-termdemandTheeastwardrelocationofrefinerieswillincreasecross-regionaltradeofoilproductsandnewUSsanctionsmayspeedupthechangeofmarketstructureTakingintoaccounttheriskreturninthehighseasonwemaintainOverweightratingfortheoceanshippingsectorAutomobileSectorSpecialReportWemaintainOverweightratingfortheautomobilesectorespeciallythehigh-endnew-energyMPVmanufacturersandtheirsupplychainsMPVmarketisonthewayofrecoveryInthepastjoint-venturepetroleumMPVtookthemajorshareofmedium-andhigh-endmarketAtpresenttherisinghouseholddemandandconsumptionupgradinghavehighlightedtheadvantagesofnewenergyMPVineconomicalefficiencyinternalspacefunctionsandintelligenttechnologiesForthetimebeingDENZAtakesthebiggestmarketsharewithveryfewcompetitorsOffeaturedcompanieswerecommendBYD002594LiAuto2015HKXPeng9868HKJianghuaiAutomobile600418GreatWallMotor601633andGeelyAutomobile0175HKSkyverse688361OWTPRMB10680RatingOWPrvNATPRMB10680PrvNAMPRMB7135Mkt-CapRMB22832mnTheCompanyisaleadingproducerofsemiconductormeasuringandtestinginstrumentswhoseproductrangeexpansionwillsustainitscompanygrowthWeforecasttheCompanys2023-2025revenueofRMB824mn1220mnand1673mnTheaverage2024PSofcomparablecompaniesis1064xTakingintoaccountthepotentialofimportsubstationandtheCompanysleadingpositioninindustrywesuggest2024PSof28xandcorrespondingmarketcapofRMB3416bnandtargetpriceofRMB1068Overweightrating39LatestReportsYuanXingEnergy000683OWTPRMB938RatingOWPrvOWTPRMB938PrvRMB938MPRMB732Mkt-CapRMB26511mnDuetothelowbusinessclimateofsodiumcarbonateindustrywelowerourforecastsoftheCompanys2023-2025EPSfromRMB090098and113toRMB070081and094ButtakingintoaccounttheCompanysbusinessexpansionatlowcostwemaintaintargetpriceofRMB9382024PEof116xandOverweightratingDatangRenewable01798HKBuyTPHKD310RatingBuyPrvBuyTPHKD310PrvHKD310MPHKD1880Mkt-CapHKD136746mnMaintainBuyOur2023-2025EPSforecastsremainunchangedatRMB041RMB051RMB065respectivelyOurTPremainsunchangedatHK310basedon70x2023PESolidpowergenerationgrowthinthefirst8monthsInAugustDTRswindgenerationdroppedby2126yoylikelyduetolowerwindspeedsaprevailingconditioninChinasThree-NorthregionduringthemonthButtheimpactwaslimitedasAugustistraditionallyalowwindseasonSolaroutputinAugustmaintaineditsgrowthmomentumup2299yoyForthefirst8monthsthisyearthegrowthofDTRstotalpowergenerationremainedstrongat1644yoydrivenbymoreefficientoperationsbetterwindandsolarresourcesoverallandcapacitygrowthBusinessoutlookWebelieveDTRisnowbetterpositionedtodelivercapacityexpansionasthekeygrowth-constrainingfactorsieoverlyhighIRRrequirementsandlimitedautonomyforprojectdevelopmenthavebeenresolvedsince2022underanewsetofcorporatestrategiesinitiatedbyitsparentcompanyChinaDatangCorporationWebelieveDTRs2023capacityinstallationtargetof15-20GWisratherconservationanditscapacitygrowthcouldacceleratefrom2023onwardsMeanwhileDTRsongoingoperationaloptimisationwhichhasledtoconsistentimprovementinassetutilisationoverthepastfewyearsisanotherkeydriverforearningsgrowthThepotentialtoimproveearningsprofileviawindrepoweringisalsohugeWebelieveDTRwillhavearound40GWofwindcapacitysuitableforrepoweringbytheendof2025WindrepoweringonaveragecanmorethandoublethegenerationcapacityandtriplethepoweroutputofarepoweredsiteAttractivevaluationfollowingrecentshareplungeDTRsshareshaveplungednearly20since30thAugustamidweakerinvestorsentimentforthepowerutilitysectorDTRssharesarecurrentlytradingat45xforwardPEabout16SDbelowitshistoricalaverageoverthepastthreeyearsbasedonBloombergconsensusforecastsGivenDTRsimprovingassetqualityanditsroomforgrowthoverthenextfewyearswebelievethecurrentvaluationimplieslimiteddownsideDownsiderisksWeaker-than-expectedpowerdemanddelayinprojectroll-outunfavourablechangesofregulationsandpoliciesforIPPsextremeweatherconditions49SectorRatingsoftheMonthRatingSectorBuildingMaterialsComprehensiveFinanceInsuranceCommercialBankingCoalFoodDrinkOWPharmaceuticalRealEstateMachineryManufacturingTransportationConstructionEngineeringNonferrousMetalsHouseholdAppliancesTransportationEquipmentMassMediaCulturalAgricultureTextileNTGarmentsRetailingPowerEquipmentSocialServicesPublicUtilitiesIronSteelUWInformationTechnologyInformationScienceNoteTheratingsabovearemadebyGTJAStrategyTeamwhichmaynotalwaysbeinlinewiththeopinionsofGTJAindustryanalystsduetodifferentemphasesandtimerangeswhentheseratingsaremadeMarketStrategyWeeklyViewpointLastUpdateSeptember10th2023A-ShareStrategyWeeklyRiskPerceptionOverweighsBizResultsForthetimebeingriskperceptionoverweighsbusinessresultsinA-sharemarketInthepasttwoyearsblue-chipstocksunderperformedgrowthstocksofvariousthemesthetheoryofvalueinvestmentnolongerappliesAsearlyasin2013wepointedoutthatstockpricesarethereflectionofhumanmindinsteadofthereflectionofobjectiveeventsOnthesurfaceinvestorsaretradingsecuritiesButinessencetheyaretradingtheirexpectationsIn2019-2021thetradingoneconomiccyclesandvaluediscoverydidworkbecauseoftheupwardadjustmentsofinvestorsexpectationsforeconomicgrowthandindustrialdevelopmentinfactFrom2022thetradingonriskperceptionstartedtoprevailbecauseoftheconsensusoneconomicandindustrialoutlookversustherisinguncertaintiesbothinandoutofChinaIntheshortrunweanticipateShanghaiCompositetostayinsmall-rangecorrectionsmostofthetimebecausebothgoodnewsandbadnewshavebeenpricedinwhilethepossibilityofupwardadjustmentofbusinessresultsisverysmallforthetimebeingContinuedpolarizationofriskappetiteswillbringbetterchancesforthestocksofgoodholdingstructurebutbigdisputesoncompanyprospectsIn2023theconcernovertherisksoruncertaintieseggeopoliticsswitchofeconomicgrowthpatternde-financializationoftherealestateindustryoverwhelmedtheconcernovernear-termGDPandEPSThefirsthalfof2023witnessedthesellingofvaluestocksbylow-riskappetiteinvestorsandthebuyingofgrowthstocksbyhigh-riskappetiteinvestorsButdifferentfromthegeneralriseofriskappetitesin2015theriskappetitesaremovingdownwardonthewholein2023Thereforehigh-risksectorsegcomputermediaroseearlierthanlow-risksectorsInthemediumrunundercontinuedpolarizationofriskappetitestheinfluencesofmarketdealingswillcontinuetooverweighmarketexpectationsThestocksofgoodholdingstructurebutbigdisputesoncompanyprospectswillenjoybetteropportunitieswhereasthestocksofpoorholdingstructureandhighconsensusexpectationscanhardlyhaveanychanceHigh-endequipmentandmanufacturingsectorswillleadtheriseofscience-techgrowthstocksandfinancialandrealestatesectorswillseetothepaceofpolicy59supportsOfthesectorsandcompaniescharacterizedwithmediumandlowrisksbigdisputesofinvestorsexpectationsandgoodholdingstructurewerecommend1high-endequipmentmanufacturingandmaterialssectorsmachinerywarindustryandelectronicsandthelow-valuationstocksthatcanbenefitfromexportgrowthimportsubstitutionandpolicysupport2high-riskthematicfinancialrealestatestockswhosestockmarketreboundswillseetotheqoqGDPrecoveryandthegovernmentpoliciesonthesupplysideandthesolutionsoflocalgovernmentdebts3high-dividendSOEswithmonopolyorfranchiseadvantageegtelecomoperatoroilpetrochemicalsandpublicutilitiesAsforinvestmentthemesandindividualstockswepreferthoseinvolvedinhigh-endequipmentHuaweiindustrialchainsatelliteinternetandrobotsOfsub-sectorsandfeaturedcompanieswerecommend1high-endequipmentsemiconductorJingceElectronic300567industrialmachinetoolsNeway688697warindustryAVICShenyangAircraft600760powergridWillfarInfoTech6881002HuaweiindustrialchainETEK688601V-Test688372andMaxscend3007823satelliteinternetChengchangTech001270andChinaSatelliteCommunications6016984humanoidrobotsMOONSElectric603728Majorrisksweaker-than-expecteddomesticpolicystimulusglobalgeopoliticaluncertainties69GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticeandtheinvestorshallpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdateormodificationTheinvestmentsandservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbeappropriateforcertainclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvicetoclientsInanycircumstancestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentrecommendationsforanypersonInanycircumstancesGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatedinstitutionsshallnotpromiseinvestorsthattheywillmakeprofitsshallnotshareinvestmentgainswithinvestorsandshallnotbeliableforanylosscausedbyanypersonsuseofanycontentinthisreportInvestorsareremindedthatanyinvestmentdecisionsmadebythemarenotrelatedtoGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoritsaffiliatesGuotaiJunanusesinformationwallstocontroltheflowofinformationbetweenoneormorefieldsdepartmentsorrelatedinstitutionswithinGuotaiJunanThereforeinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothatwherepermittedbylawGuotaiJunananditssubordinateaffiliatesmayholdsecuritiesoroptionsissuedbycompaniesmentionedinthereportandconducttradingofthosesecuritiesoroptionsandmayprovideortrytoprovideservicessuchasinvestmentbankingfinancialadvisingorfinancialproductstothosecompaniesWherepermittedbylawemployeesofGuotaiJunanmayserveasdirectorsofcompaniesmentionedinthisreportThestockmarketisriskyandinvestmentneedstobecautiousInvestorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisionsnorshouldtheyconsiderthisreporttobeasubstitutefortheirownjudgmentBeforedecidingtoinvestifnecessaryinvestorsmustconsultprofessionalsandmakeprudentdecisionsThisreportisnotintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoisnotallowedtosendordistributethisreportunderlocallawsorregulatoryrulesnorisitintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoseavailabilityoruseofthisreportwouldcauseGuotaiJunantoviolateorbesubjecttolocallawsorregulatoryrulesThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbyGuotaiJunanWithoutwrittenpermissionnoinstitutionorindivi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SFutuFUTUUSSinopecSNPUSSPC600688SHCSCEC601668SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHCCB601939SHSUPCON688777SHBTL603596SHSinoHytec688339SHSINOTRANS601598SHMACALLINE601828SHGACGROUP601238SHHUNDSUN600570SHCHINASUNTIENGREENENERGY600956SHFANGDACARBON600516SHBBMG601992SHSINOPECCORP600028SHYEIC002053SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZWESTCONSTRUCTION002302SZLBG002601SZEASTMONEY300059SZGUJINGDISTILLERY000596SZCHINATIANYING000035SZJEREHGROUP002353SZTHUNDERSOFT300496SZYUNDACORP002120SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofChinaOverseasLandInvestment00688HKLenovo00992HKChinaTelecom-Hshares00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKChinaMobile-Hshares00941HKHongKongExchangesandClearing00388HKGalaxyEntertainment00027HKGreatWallMotor-Hshares02333HKAIA01299HKSandsChina01928HKSunnyOpticalTechnology02382HKSinopharmGroup-Hshares01099HKCNOOC00883HKWuXiBiologics02269HKMeituan-W03690HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKBYDCompany-Hshares01211HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKIndustrialandCommercialBankofChina-Hshares0139889HKBOCHongKong02388HKChinaMerchantsBank-Hshares03968HKBankofChina-Hshares03988HKHSBC00005HKAgriculturalBankofChina-Hshares01288HKPingAnInsurance-Hshares02318HKChinaLifeInsurance-Hshares02628HKTencent00700HKAACTechnologiesHoldings02018HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-Hshares00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKAlibaba09988HKNetease09999HKJDcom09618HKSMIC00981HKAlibabaHealth00241HKBIDU-SW09888HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKCITICSEC-Hshares06030HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiarieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentIndexover15suggestionsCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengInvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCompanyOverweightIndexbetween5and15ratingandsectorratingRatingIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengThemarketperformancewithinthe12NeutralIndexbetween-5and5monthsafterthepublicationofthereportisDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengconsideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkUnderweightIndexover5TheincreaseanddecreaseoftheSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangcompanysstockpriceorindustryindexOverweightSengIndexwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HanginthesameperiodUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdJinganDistrictShanghai20004186213867-6666Shanghai18FSouthBuildingFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialStreetBeijing10003286108393-9888XichengDistrictBeijing27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRoadFutianShenzhen518026867552397-6888DistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2023CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved99