研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业85225095317yongguogtjascomhk26September2023TableMainInfoBiweeklyUpdateTheTrendofBaseMetalPricesWasnot行Impacted业报Thetrendofbasemetalpriceswasnotimpactedbychanging告ReportSectorexpectationsontheUSinterestratehikeTheUSFederalReservedidnotTableInvestInfoRatingOutperformraiseinterestrateintheSeptemberFOMCwhichwasinlinewithmarketMaintainedexpectationsWebelievetheUSmonetarypolicyremainunchangedanditsimpacttobaemetalpricewaslimitedChinaspolicyonthepropertymarket评级跑赢大市维持continuetolooselastweekandsuchstimuluspoliciesmaysustainedWe2believebasemetalpricemaybesupportedbylowinventoryduringpeakNonferrousmetalssectorperformanceseason400returnMarketsexpectationsonmorestimuluspoliciesremainsLowinventorymayoffermoresupportPrimaryaluminumsupplygrewslightly200lastweekmainlyfromsomenewcapacityofYunnanHongtaiandsomeproductioncapacityresumptioninSichuanProvinceAluminuminventory证wasstilllowandcapacityutilizationrateofaluminumfabricatingcompanies00告券onlyfluctuatedslightly-200研Copper报pricewasimpactedbymarketschangingexpectationsontheUSFederalReservesfuturemonetarypolicybutthefluctuationrange究究-400ofcopperpricewaslimitedTheFederalReservesSeptemberFOMCJan23Feb23Mar23Apr23May23Jun23Jul23Aug23ResearchReport报statement研wasinlinewithexpectationsandChinaisreleasingmorestimuluscopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin告policies券SourceBloombergEquityWemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetalssector证WerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium00098HKandZijinMining02899HKTab有色l金e属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of7See54321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098WIndownmonth37increasedsupplyconcentratecoppermoreUS8limitedwaspricecopperofrangefluctuationthebutpolicymonetaryCoppertonsmillioninventoryPAsideDemandcapacitymainlyweeklastslightlygrewsupplyaluminumPrimarysideSupplyAluminumpricepoliciesbelievesustainmaymetalbaseWeChinaslimitedwaspricemetalbaetoimpacttheUSlabormarketmaybecomeweakinthe4roseaftertheFOMCmeetingand100fromThefinalinterestratein2023statementraisedthe1rateinterestraisenotdidReserveThSectorthGrowthofrateConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainecontinuemayroductionroductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingcompanieswasluminumvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineChinasmacroUSDeetrendofbasemetalpriceseownstreamlassstimuluspoliciespoliciesstimulus29FederalReserveFederalinterestratehike222tpagUpdateresumptioninbpto50tobpoprrcwsmatdbyimpactedwaspriceCopperremainedlowpptstopptsttlastweekTheenetrwstllowstillwasinventoryMarketsonexpectationspoliciesmoreMarketsstimulusremainsfoandrOutperformdisclaimerconsumptiondemandeconomiceconomicaluminumbar7178nbpwhichindicatedthattheFederalReservesinterestratecutexpectationsweakenedTheUSdollarindexUSweakenedTheexpectationsratecutinterestReservesFederalthethatindicatedwhichbpewenergyvehiclesbemaylowerstexpectlastpriceweekbecoppertoWeSichuanProvinceInhalf2023GDPgrowthratetsheAugustFederalResergrowthbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsrateinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentShanghaiMetalsMarketdidnotsanddewaswasChinasrefinedcopperoutputincreasedincreasedoutputcopperrefinedChinasweighscreasedZijinMining02899HKandcapacityutilizationraterateutilizationcapacityandintheSeptemberFOMCwhichwasinlinewithmarketexpectationsHowevertheFOMCtheHoweverexpectationsmarketwithlineinwaswhichFOMCSeptembertheinchangenotimpactedbymayedsvesTotalTotalproductioncapacityincreased1maybemayononbasemetalpricesWebelievethebebyaftertheSeptemberFOMCbutthethetheSeptemberFOMCstatementlowerthan4thPpolicyonthepropertymarketcontinuemarketpropertytheonpolicy0quarterquarterof20230tonsthethe-smarketsmarketshigherthanhigherexpectationsoverfrom1to21andmaintainmaybebemaysupportedbylowpeakduringseasoninventorythanthanmarketexpectationsnonferrousSMM-monthto27milliontonsmillion27tomonthchangingchangingto0expectationfrom0commercialcommercialinventoryofaluminumchangingchanging9milliontonsmillionsomenewcapacitynewsomeWeWebelievetheUSmonetarypolicyremainmetalsofaluminumfabricatingcompaniescompaniesfabricatingaluminumofsupportedbysupportedpositivemorefactorsexpectationsontheUSinterestratehikesxettosonexpectationssectorLwas7owmonthCopperpriceTablePageHeader0inlinewithimprovWinventorymaysupportmoreofferexpectedinterestratecutin00000000tonsedTheutilizationofcopperrodcompaniesrodcopperofutilizationTheerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HK01378HongqiaoChinarecommendedownthethepossibilityoffurtherinterestratehikeof-doverementYunnanHongtaiYunnantolooseto03wasdownhUFdrlReservesFederalUStheexpectations-monthto0tomonthtoto42pptspptsto63ofofUSinflationdidnotchangebutinncreased98lastweekandsuchstimulussuchandweeklastmilliontonsmillionweeklast218599nylcutdslightlyfluctuatedonlyofroseasSectorMetalsNonferrousandChinaisreleasingandweekbymilliontonsmillionsDomesticaluminum2024wasreducedunchangedandits3somesome000tonsTheUSFederal-overproductionPagePageandtotalandtotal-weektotofuturefuture02wasofof52s7in2argMbleTa1MarginTableSectorReportNonferrousMetalsSecto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