研究报告全文：SFCLicAVV666SFCLicnoahhudsongtjascomhkKingDollarisBackTheThe25095441-8522023th06OverseasMacroResearchMacroOverseastoberNoahHudsonNoahcTopRecommendationsTopO本报告部分内容译自同日发布的简体中文报告国泰君安晨报报告观点及内容如有任何不一致的地方一律以该简体中文版报告为准本报告仅在中国香港地区使用ContentsMorningBriefMarketResearchMorningBriefTopRecommendationsOverseasMacroResearchTheKingDollarisBackGlobalbondyieldsaresurgingManybelievethatthemassivebondsupplytriggeredthebondroutandthesupplyissuewillremainintheforeseeablefuture10-yearUStreasuryyieldsmaytouch5ButmoreimportantlythequestionforglobalinvestorsiswhethertheelevatedyieldswillpersistforlongIfthisisthecasetheassetpricingwillbesignificantlyinfluencedDollerremainsstrongItishardtojustifytherecessioncallsanymoreasmostofthedatapointtoamorerobustUSeconomythanexpectedInthemeantimetheeconomicindicatorsintheEuroZonecameinweakerthanexpectedaddingfueltothedollarbullaswellTheUSD-JPYisagainatthecrossroadsInthiscasetheBOJhastocatchupwiththemonetarytighteninginordertoreducethecarrycostoflongJPYotherwisehedgefundswillcontinuetoselltheJapanesecurrencyuntilthereisafundamentalchangeofnarrativesTheHangSengIndexsuggeststhatChinasmarketsentimentremainssluggishwhichcallsformorepolicysupportoverthecomingquartersChinasPMIdatashowedmixedresultsInmyviewtheChineseeconomyisnotonasolidfootingyetandthepropertysectorisstillunderthespotlightovertheforeseeablefuture25GuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdhasacquiredthequalificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessfromChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionAnalystsStatementTheauthorhasobtainedthepracticingqualificationforsecuritiesinvestmentconsultingbusinessawardedbythesecuritiesassociationofChinaorhasequivalentprofessionalcompetencetoensurealldatainthereportaresourcedfromlegitimatechannelsandanalysislogicsarebasedontheauthorsprofessionalunderstandingThisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthorsresearchideasbeingindependentobjectiveandfairandtheconclusionisnotsuggestedoraffectedbyanythirdpartiesAnycomponentsoftheanalystscompensationarenotdirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificadviceorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportItisherebydeclaredDisclaimerThisreportissolelyavailabletocustomerswhohavesubscribedresearchservicesofGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdorGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedhereaftercollectivelyreferredtoasGuotaiJunanThereceiptofthisreportwillnotbeconsideredbyGuotaiJunanasanexofficiocustomerofGuotaiJunanThisreportisdistributedonlyaspermittedbyapplicablelawsandforinformationalpurposesonlyItdoesnotconstituteanyadvertisementTheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandGuotaiJunanmakesnowarrantyastotheaccuracycompletenessorreliabilityofsuchinformationTheinformationopinionsandassumptionspresentedinthisreportonlyreflectGuotaiJunansjudgmentasofthedateofissuanceofthisreportThepricevalueandinvestmentincomeofthesecuritiesorinvestmenttargetsreferredtointhisreportmayriseorfallPastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasabasisforfutureperformanceAtdifferenttimesGuotaiJunanmayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformationopinionsandassumptionscontainedhereinGuotaiJunandoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportiskeptuptodateAtthesametimetheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaybemodifiedbyGuotaiJunanwithoutnoticeandtheinvestorshallpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdateormodificationTheinvestmentsandservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbeappropriateforcertainclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvicetoclientsInanycircumstancestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdoesnotconstituteinvestmentrecommendationsforanypersonInanycircumstancesGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatedinstitutionsshallnotpromiseinvestorsthattheywillmakeprofitsshallnotshareinvestmentgainswithinvestorsandshallnotbeliableforanylosscausedbyanypersonsuseofanycontentinthisreportInvestorsareremindedthatanyinvestmentdecisionsmadebythemarenotrelatedtoGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoritsaffiliatesGuotaiJunanusesinformationwallstocontroltheflowofinformationbetweenoneormorefieldsdepartmentsorrelatedinstitutionswithinGuotaiJunanThereforeinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothatwherepermittedbylawGuotaiJunananditssubordinateaffiliatesmayholdsecuritiesoroptionsissuedbycompaniesmentionedinthereportandconducttradingofthosesecuritiesoroptionsandmayprovideortrytoprovideservicessuchasinvestmentbankingfinancialadvisingorfinancialproductstothosecompaniesWherepermittedbylawemployeesofGuotaiJunanmayserveasdirectorsofcompaniesmentionedinthisreportThestockmarketisriskyandinvestmentneedstobecautiousInvestorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisionsnorshouldtheyconsiderthisreporttobeasubstitutefortheirownjudgmentBeforedecidingtoinvestifnecessaryinvestorsmustconsultprofessionalsandmakeprudentdecisionsThisreportisnotintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoisnotallowedtosendordistributethisreportunderlocallawsorregulatoryrulesnorisitintendedtobesentordistributedtoanyinstitutionorpersonwhoseavailabilityoruseofthisreportwouldcauseGuotaiJunantoviolateorbesubjecttolocallawsorregulatoryrulesThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbyGuotaiJunanWithoutwrittenpermissionnoinstitutionorindividualmayreproducecopypublishorquoteinanyformIfitisquotedorpublishedwiththeconsentofGuotaiJunanitmustbeusedwithinthepermittedscopeandthesourcemustbeindicatedasGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchorGuotaiJunanHongKongResearchandthereportmustnotbequoteddeletedormodifiedinanywaythatiscontrarytotheoriginalintentionGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedshallbeliabletoGuotaiJunanSecuritiesCoLtdforthecontentanddistributionofresearchreportsIfanorganizationotherthanGuotaiJunanhereinafterreferredtoastheOrganizationsendsthisreportitshallbesolelyresponsibleforsuchsendingInvestorswhoobtainthisreportthroughthismeansshouldcontacttheOrganizationontheirowntorequestmoredetailedinformationortofurthertradeinthesecuritiesreferredtointhisreportThisreportshallnotconstituteinvestmentadviceprovidedbyGuotaiJunantotheclientsoftheOrganizationnorshallGuotaiJunanitsemployeesoraffiliatesbeliableforanylossesincurredbytheclientsoftheOrganizationasaresultoftheuseofthisreportorthecontentscontainedinthereport35ThefollowingimportantstatementsareapplicabletoresearchreportspublishedinHongKongThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanHongKongGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunanHongKonggroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanHongKongThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunanHongKongdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunanHongKonganditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdictionDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforGUOTAIJUNANI01788HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKVANOVHOLDINGS02260HKZHONGANSERVICE02271HKDOWELLSERVICE02352HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKJIAXINGGAS09908HKGED-B200539SZGuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiarieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithVobileGroup03738HKChinaLesso02128HKIDREAMSKY01119HKChinaRisunGroup01907HKSMIC00981HKChowTaiFookJewellery01929HKZHIHU-W02390HKKingsoft03888HKXPENG09868HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKZhongliangHoldings02772HK360DIGITECH-S03660HKBOSSZHIPIN02076HKBinhaiInvestment02886HKSPC00338HKChinaPetroleumChemical-Hshares00386HKXIAOMI-WR-Hshares81810HKNagaCorp03918HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKCHOVSGOCEANS00081HKChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKChinaOverseasLandInvestment00688HKChinaGas00384HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKYEAHKA09923HKNAYUKI02150HKChervon02285HKCARSGEN02171HKJD-SWR-Hshares89618HKKUAISHOU-WR-Hshares81024HKXingfaAluminium00098HKHORIZONCONSTRUCTIONDEVELOPMENT09930HKNWS00659HKA-LIVING03319HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKTencent00700HKAlibaba09988HKSinoHytec-Hshares02402HKSinotrans-Hshares00598HKBankofCommunications-Hshares03328HKJDcom09618HKBIDU-SW09888HKSenseTime-W00020HKChinaNonferrousMining01258HKJoySpreader06988HKGuangzhouAutomobile-Hshares02238HKKWGGroup01813HKCIFIHoldingsGroup00884HKZhenroProperties06158HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCountryGarden02007HKAgileGroup03383HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKLoganGroup03380HKSUNAC01918HKNewWorldDevelopment00017HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKFOSUNINTL00656HKChinaMinshengBankingCorp-Hshares01988HKIRICOGroupNewEnergy00438HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCIFIESService01995HKSinopecKantons00934HKSINOPECEngineering-Hshares02386HKCHENMING01812HKLeeManPaper02314HKCGNMeiyaPower01811HKZhihuZHUSTencentMusicEntertainmentGroupTMEUSNIONIOUSJDcomJDUSKANZHUNLIMITEDBZUSDiDiDIDIUSBilibiliIncBILIUSFutuFUTUUSSinopecSNPUSSPC600688SHCSCEC601668SHWUXIAPPTEC603259SHCCB601939SHSUPCON688777SHBTL603596SHSinoHytec688339SHSINOTRANS601598SHMACALLINE601828SHGACGROUP601238SHHUNDSUN600570SHCHINASUNTIENGREENENERGY600956SHFANGDACARBON600516SHBBMG601992SHSINOPECCORP600028SHYEIC002053SZZHONGNANCONSTRUCTION000961SZWESTCONSTRUCTION002302SZLBG002601SZEASTMONEY300059SZGUJINGDISTILLERY000596SZCHINATIANYING000035SZJEREHGROUP002353SZTHUNDERSOFT300496SZYUNDACORP002120SZBOTANEEGROUP300957SZSCPH000488SZmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofChinaOverseasLandInvestment00688HKLenovo00992HKChinaTelecom-Hshares00728HKChinaUnicom00762HKChinaMobile-Hshares00941HKHongKongExchangesandClearing00388HKGalaxyEntertainment00027HKGreatWallMotor-Hshares02333HKAIA01299HKSandsChina01928HKCITICSEC-Hshares06030HKSunnyOpticalTechnology02382HKSinopharmGroup-Hshares01099HKCNOOC00883HKWuXiBiologics02269HKMeituan-W03690HKGeelyAutomobile00175HKBYDCompany-Hshares01211HKChinaConstructionBank-Hshares00939HKIndustrialandCommercialBankof45China-Hshares01398HKBOCHongKong02388HKChinaMerchantsBank-Hshares03968HKBankofChina-Hshares03988HKHSBC00005HKAgriculturalBankofChina-Hshares01288HKPingAnInsurance-Hshares02318HKChinaLifeInsurance-Hshares02628HKTencent00700HKAACTechnologiesHoldings02018HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-Hshares00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKAlibaba09988HKNetease09999HKJDcom09618HKSMIC00981HKAlibabaHealth00241HKBIDU-SW09888HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKXPENG09868HKLoganGroup03380HKChinaAoyuanProperty03883HKmentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiarieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficerofanyissuersmentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunanInternationalHoldingsLimitedandoritssubsidiariesRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengOverweightComparisonbenchmarkforinvestmentIndexover15suggestionsCautiouslyIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengInvestmentratingsaredividedintostockCompanyOverweightIndexbetween5and15ratingandsectorratingRatingIncreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengThemarketperformancewithinthe12NeutralIndexbetween-5and5monthsafterthepublicationofthereportisDecreaserelativetoCSI300HangSengconsideredasthecomparisonbenchmarkUnderweightIndexover5TheincreaseanddecreaseoftheSignificantlystrongerthanCSI300HangcompanysstockpriceorindustryindexOverweightSengIndexwithinthe12monthsafterthepublicationofBasicallyflatwithCSI300HangSengthereportiscomparedwiththeincreaseSectorRatingNeutralanddecreaseofCSI300HangSengIndexIndexSignificantlyweakerthanCSI300HanginthesameperiodUnderweightSengIndexGuotaiJunanSecuritiesResearchInstituteAddressPostalCodeTel20FOneMuseumPlace669XinzhaRdJinganDistrictShanghai20004186213867-6666Shanghai18FSouthBuildingFinancialStreetCenter9AFinancialStreetBeijing10003286108393-9888XichengDistrictBeijing27FBuildingBRongchaoTower6003YitianRoadFutianShenzhen518026867552397-6888DistrictShenzhenE-mailgtjaresearchgtjascomGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAddressFaxTel27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181HongKong8522509-77938522509-9118QueensRoadCentralHongKongWebsitewwwgtjacomhk2023CopyrightGuotaiJunanAllrightsreserved55