研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportFoodBeverageSectorAndyChen陈思超行业报告食品饮料行业85225092665andychengtjascomhk27September2023TableMainInfoBiweeklyWrapExpectingConsumptionSentimenttoMarginally行ImproveDuringtheTwoHolidaysReiterateOutperform业报ChinesebaijiusectorFrom3Q2023macroandrealestaterelatedpolicieshavebeenimplementedstepbysteppotentiallydrivingtherecoveryofRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告ReportSectorpro-cyclicalsectorsandalsodomesticdemandforbaijiuproductsinChinaMaintainedBasedonourrecentdialogueswithmanyinvestorstheconsensusisthatthe评级跑赢大市维持Chinesebaijiumarketismorelikelytobottomoutinthecomingfuturewithrelativelycontrollableinventorylevelsespeciallyforthesuper-premium2marketleadersegKweichowMoutaiandWuliangyeandregionalmarketMSCIHKconsumerstaplesvsHSIplayersegYingjiaKingsLucketcForHK-listedChinesebaijiuperformancesectorwerecommendZJLDGroup06979HKbasedonitssolidsalesofreturnturnoverandprofitgrowthprospectscoupledwithgreatvaluation300upsidepotentialaftertheinclusionintoStockConnectfromSeptember2002023100证00Non-alcoholicbeveragesectorChinasbeveragemarketsizehasseen告券gradualexpansionoverthepastyearsdespitemacrofluctuationsand100报研negativeimpactsfromthepandemicCoredriversincludecontinuous200productinnovationandmarketpenetrationInthelongtermweforecasttotal究究300beveragesalesintermsofvalueinChinatodeliveramid-single-digitSep-22Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23Sep-23ResearchReport报研CAGRoverthenextfiveyearsIntheshortrunsincethisyeartheNationalHSIIndexMSCIHKConsumerStaplesIndex告Dayholidayspansfrom29Septemberto6OctoberoverlappingwiththeSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational券EquityMid-AutumnFestivalwebelievethattheoverallconsumersentimentaswellas证on-premisechanneldemandismorelikelytoachievevisibleimprovementduringthisperiodApartfromshort-termsalescatalystsbeveragegiantsinChinamaybenefitfrommarginallysoftenedrawandpackagingmaterialcostin2H2023-2024basedonourassumptionsOurtoppickfortheHK-listednon-alcoholicbeveragesectorisTingyi00322HKwithTPofHK1350implying20x17x2023F2024FPERWealsorecommendTChinaFoods00506HKandVitasoy00345HKabBeersubsectorMostdomesticbreweriesshowedresilienceintheir食operationsin1H2023andareexpectedtomaintainrobustsalesgrowth品lmomentumin2H2023inparticularfortheirpremiumbeersegmentsWe饮ereiteratethatsectorearningsaretoachievehigh-teenpercentageYoY料growthduring2023-2025OurtoppickisTsingtaoBrewery00168HK行WealsohaveBuyratingsonChinaResourcesBeer00291HKandL业recommendYanjingBrewery000729SZeFoodBeverageSectorfMajorriskfactors1Weaker-than-expecteddomesticeconomicgrowththouseholdincomegrowth2unexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsMandpackagingcomponentsand3foodsafetyproblemsarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5See1KongVitasoywaslosertopthewhile29IndexStaplesConsumerKongHong20The2primarilyprospectsperspectivevaluationafromgrowthcyclicaltocyclicalitystrong2024movingismarketmilkrawdomesticthethatmaintainWeefficiencystablemoreaintoenteredForDairyexecoperationaldomesticDairysectorafterinclusionpotentialupsideintotheStockConnectfrom2023SeptemberGroupZJLDWuliangyeregionalandrwithdialoguesproofrecoverythedrivingChinesebaijiusectorBuyratinghighachievesegmentbeerpremiumtheirforparticularin2H2023inmomentumgrowthsalesBeerPERWealsorecommendHKthebenefitfrommarginallysoftenedandpackagingrawmaterial2H2023costinperiothisduringimprovementvisibleachievetolikelyMidthewiththenextfiveyearsIntheshortrunsincethepenetrationInthelongtermweforecastfromtotalbeveragesalesintermsimpactsofvalueinChinatodeliveranegativemidandfluctuationsNonthelas-CorethedairyfarmingsegmentgivengivensegmentfarmingdairytheSectorDataUpdateandSharePricePerformanceReviewHKfoodandbeveragesectorsectorbeverageandfoodHK-alcoholicbeveragesector-subsector2025ltvlcnrlalivnoyeesseilyotesupertheforespeciallylevelsinventorycontrollableelativelylistedFBcompanies02319HKwithTPTPofHKHK3210with02319t-paglistednondemandwithmanyinvestorstheconsensusisthattheChinesebaijiumarketismorelikelybottomtotheoutincomingfutureeIdeaseptshortdespite-fo-AutumnFestivalwebelievethattheoverallconsumersentimentaswellasonaswellassentimentconsumeroverallthethatbelieveweFestivalAutumnsteenpercentageYoYgrowthduring2023duringgrowthYoYpercentageteen0697rGoingforwardGoingwethatthinktheinvestmentthemesofthedairyproductincludecategory1marginallyimproving-onlistedFBcompaniesslightlyunderperformedslightlycompaniesFBlisteddisclaimerutionand3relativelymodestvaluationcomparedwithFBpeersFBwithcomparedvaluationmodestrelatively3andutionMostdomesticbreweriesshowedresilienceintheiroperationsin1H2023andareexpectedtomaintainSectorUpdateInvestmentandSuggestionsfordairyproductsfrom2H20232improvedprofitmarginsduetoreliefoncostpressureandoptimizationinpressureandreliefcosttoonmarginsdueprofitimproved2from2H2023productsdairyforChinaBeerResources-alcoholicbeveragesectoris9HKbasedHK9ModernDairyModernFrom3Q2023macroandrealestaterealestateFromand3Q2023macro-marketplayerstermfluctuationsfromthedemandsidedemandthefromfluctuationstermby10pptTobemorespecificthetopgainerwasWeilong00998WeilongwasgainertopthespecificmorebeToppt10by-recorde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