2023年10月2日-10月8日当周：
　　中国化工品价格指数（CCPI）：当周CCPI与上周持平，较上月同期上涨0.2%，年内上涨3.7%，较去年同期下跌5.8%。
　　周度涨幅较大的产品：美国N.Y. Hub现货，+51.9%；硝酸钠(华东)，+8.6%；美国Henry Hub期货(主连合约)，+7.5%；异辛醇(华东)，+7.1%；三氯乙烯(华东)。+6.8%。
　　周度跌幅较大的产品：英国NBP现货(远期合约)，-36.5%；双氧水(27.5%，山东)，-28.1%；日本LNG现货，-15.8%；欧洲ARA柴油(CIF)，-13.1%；美国87#汽油，-13.0%。
　　基础化工：化工品价格触底反弹，龙头白马充分受益。我们认为在国内政策刺激、需求向好背景下，化工品盈利至暗时刻已过，基础化工品盈利存修复之动力，但考虑到历经两年景气周期，中观维度在建工程正欲投产，化工品价格修复弹性有待验证。站在当前时点，化企龙头在产品盈利修复预期较强的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有强安全边际。叠加龙头白马产业链一体化、规模优势明显，成本领先，有望于价格修复过程中率先受益。化企核心资产配置性价比持续凸显，建议继续买入化工龙头公司。重点推荐万华化学、华鲁恒升、龙佰集团等。
　　新材料：消费电子复苏预期，苹果MR产品进入推广阶段，重点推荐国瓷材料、斯迪克；锂电回收产业趋势，重点关注锂离子电池萃取相关公司；光伏装机增加叠加topcon需求放量，重点关注POE价格上行之可能。
　　重点公司：万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工、中国巨石、桐昆股份、华峰化学、恒力石化、卫星化学、金禾实业、新和成、润丰股份、国瓷材料、东材科技、昊华科技、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、福斯特、天赐材料、新宙邦等。
　　风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风险，环保落实不力的风险。
　　

研究报告全文：行业研证券研究报告究化工三代制冷剂配额方案出台萤石海外磷酸二铵丁辛醇等价格上涨推荐维持2023年10月11日重点公司投资要点EPS元重点公司评级行2022A2023E业万华化学517599买入2023年10月2日-10月8日当周华鲁恒升296215买入周扬农化工买入442381中国化工品价格指数CCPI当周CCPI与上周持平较上月同期上涨报中国巨石165113增持桐昆股份005095增持02年内上涨37较去年同期下跌58联化科技075077增持华峰化学057063增持周度涨幅较大的产品美国NYHub现货519硝酸钠华东金禾实业302197买入美国期货主连合约异辛醇华东新和成117122增持86HenryHub7571润丰股份510550增持三氯乙烯华东68恒力石化033117增持卫星化学091140增持周度跌幅较大的产品英国NBP现货远期合约-365双氧水荣盛石化033028增持东方盛虹008106增持275山东-281日本LNG现货-158欧洲ARA柴油CIF天赐材料增持297351-131美国87汽油-130福斯特119201增持新宙邦增持236308基础化工化工品价格触底反弹龙头白马充分受益我们认为在国内政来源兴业证券经济与金融研究院相关报告策刺激需求向好背景下化工品盈利至暗时刻已过基础化工品盈利存兴证化工基化新材料周修复之动力但考虑到历经两年景气周期中观维度在建工程正欲投产报文莱与商飞签署国产大飞机订单尿素邻对硝基氯化工品价格修复弹性有待验证站在当前时点化企龙头在产品盈利修复化苯橡胶助剂烧碱等价格预期较强的背景下估值已跌至较低水平以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算上涨20230918-20230924来看该估值仍具有强安全边际叠加龙头白马产业链一体化规模优势分析师明显成本领先有望于价格修复过程中率先受益化企核心资产配置性价比持续凸显建议继续买入化工龙头公司重点推荐万华化学华鲁恒张志扬zhangzhiyangxyzqcomcn升龙佰集团等S0190520010003新材料消费电子复苏预期苹果MR产品进入推广阶段重点推荐国瓷吉金材料斯迪克锂电回收产业趋势重点关注锂离子电池萃取相关公司jijinxyzqcomcnS0190522030003光伏装机增加叠加topcon需求放量重点关注POE价格上行之可能张勋重点公司万华化学华鲁恒升扬农化工中国巨石桐昆股zhangxun19xyzqcomcn份华峰化学恒力石化卫星化学金禾实业新和成润丰股S0190521100002份国瓷材料东材科技昊华科技荣盛石化东方盛虹福斯刘梦岚特天赐材料新宙邦等liumenglanxyzqcomcnS0190522070006风险提示化工产品需求不达预期的风险国际油价大幅下跌的风险环保落实不力的风险请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报本周化工与新材料行业回顾9月中国制造业PMI公布制造业景气水平持续改善国家统计局公布9月份中国PMI9月制造业PMI为502月环比05pcts重返扩张区间1生产指数和新订单指数分别为527和505月环比分别为08pcts和03pcts表明制造业生产扩张步伐有所加快市场需求继续改善2新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为478和476月环比分别为24pcts和-27pcts均低于临界点新出口订单环比上升表明国外市场需求有所改善3主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别上升至594和535月环比分别51pcts和29pcts制造业产品销售价格总体水平增加4大型企业PMI为516月环比08pcts中型企业PMI为496与上月持平小型企业PMI为480月环比03pcts大型企业生产水平有所增加万华化学等厂商公布10月MDI挂牌价万华化学亨斯迈公布10月中国地区MDI挂牌价万华化学10月聚合MDI市场挂牌价18000元吨月环比-77纯MDI挂牌价24500元吨与上月持平上海亨斯迈2023年10月聚合MDI挂牌价为19000元吨月环比-26纯MDI挂牌价为24500元吨与上月持平生态环境部发布2024年度氢氟碳化物配额总量设定与分配实施方案征求意见稿意见的通知1国家基线与总量控制目标我国HFCs生产和使用的基线值以吨二氧化碳当量tCO2为单位分别为基线年20202022年我国HFCs的平均生产量和平均使用量再分别加上含氢氯氟烃HCFCs生产和使用基线值的65据此确定我国HFCs生产基线值为1852亿tCO2HFCs使用基线值为904亿tCO2含进口基线值005亿tCO22配额总量设定2024年HFCs生产配额总量不超过2024年国家HFCs生产基线值为1852亿tCO2设定2024年HFCs进口配额总量在进口基线值基础上增加20为006亿tCO23配额分配此次分配的配额量为HFCs生产单位进口单位在基线年实际生产量和进口量以及针对有进口需求但基线年无海关进口贸易记录的进口单位所设定的进口配额等对于配额总量中HCFCs生产和使用基线值65的部分2024年暂不全部分配到生产单位和使用单位生态环境部将根据履约工作进展和相关行业需求及时商有关部门研究分配方案包括用于增加配额发放量半导体等行业HFC-23使用量等4HFCs生产单位可按消耗臭氧层物质管理条例有关要求向生态环境部申请调整HFCs生产配额和内用生产配额三代制冷剂配额方案发布有望进一步推动制冷剂集中度提升供给收缩下企业盈利能力有望向好发展建议关注三美股份巨化股份请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-行业周报本周基础化工品价格概况萤石-氢氟酸价格上涨根据百川资讯供应方面本周国内无水氢氟酸行业整体开工六成左右南方市场原料紧俏现象较突出部分企业开工受限江浙福建片区部分厂家装置降负或停车北方地区开工情况较稳多数企业开工达七成部分企业停车检修现货库存较于南方地区略加宽松整体市场供应偏紧延续各区域竞价压力仍存需求方面氟化工产业价格传导顺畅下游产品价格持续涨调也为氢氟酸提价迎来空间原材料方面受安全环保检查等因素影响国内萤石矿山开工水平长期维持低位成本端支撑强势本周无水氢氟酸华东价格为11150元吨两周上涨37金石资源萤石矿因事故停产萤石价格上涨供应方面本周国内萤石产量小幅下滑场内货源偏紧10月8日晚间金石资源公告称2023年10月1日公司控股子公司紫晶矿业发生一起安全生产事故紫晶矿业岩前萤石矿暂时停产停业金石资源表示2023年第四季度紫晶矿业原计划生产萤石精粉及高品位块矿约5000-6000吨月紫晶矿业停产预计将对公司2023年第四季度的生产和销售产生一定影响需求方面氢氟酸价格上行冬储提前带动萤石采购积极性本周萤石粉湿粉华东价格为3600元吨两周上涨21价差方面无水氢氟酸-萤石粉价差为3230元吨两周上涨78制冷剂价格上涨R134a价格上涨供应方面中化制冷剂R134a目前部分检修整体制冷剂R134a市场目前供应略紧厂家报价持续上涨加之终端厂家四季度定价同时原料三氯乙烯供应偏紧R134a生产厂家探涨心态强烈需求方面企业控制接单仍以长约单为主部分企业报盘坚挺贸易商出货一般按单采买R125价格上涨供应方面开工延续低位状态不佳不外售整体市场供应持续偏弱部分企业维持自用需求方面下游持续刚需拿货终端空调厂等四季度定价R125生产厂家心态坚挺本周R125浙江和R134a浙江价格分别为25500元吨和27750元吨两周上涨分别为41和37价差方面R12531盐酸-无水氢氟酸-四氯乙烯价差为11480元吨两周上涨78R134a31盐酸-无水氢氟酸-三氯乙烯价差为10128元吨两周下跌11海外磷酸二铵价格上涨国内方面根据百川资讯供应方面云南树环因原料合成氨问题二铵装置停车湖北祥云装置临时停车检修复产时间待定山东部分地区仍存在供应偏紧的情况需求方面秋季备肥市场进入收尾阶段下游贸易商操作谨慎保持观望态度海外方面印度和孟加拉的采购持续推进与此同时欧洲的需求逐渐增长海外整体需求良好供给方面中国的磷酸二铵货源有限海外供给略紧张本周磷酸二铵美国海湾价格为570美元吨两周上涨36磷酸二铵64长三角价格为3900元吨与两周前持平二铵-磷矿石-液氨-硫磺价差为784元吨两周涨幅56请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-行业周报噻虫嗪价格上涨根据百川资讯供应方面邯郸市瑞田农药有限公司装置开工稳定以服务老客户为主暂不接单河北野田农用化学有限公司装置停车需求方面下游采购商采买情绪不高需求以刚需为主本周噻虫嗪价格为70000元吨两周上涨61烧碱需求较好根据百川资讯供应方面国内烧碱库存量整体供应稳定开工情况平稳其中华北地区周内滨州地区前期降负荷企业装置负荷提升液碱供应量增加东北地区假期期间有企业降负荷运行厂家出货压力不大西北地区甘肃地区前期停车检修装置恢复运行液碱供应量增加兰州地区有碱厂负荷降低青海地区液碱市场供需稳定华东地区江苏氯碱企业装置开工稳定个别企业恢复正常外销市场货源供应量增加安徽地区有氯碱企业降负运行液碱供应减少华中地区华南地区西南地区氯碱装置正常生产液碱供应稳定需求方面下游需求尚可提货情绪积极碱厂出货顺畅本周烧碱32离子膜华北价格为1010元吨两周下降19烧碱液氯-原盐价差为1051元吨两周上涨27市场供应紧张正丁醇辛醇价格上涨根据隆众资讯正丁醇方面供应方面四川石化重启装置基本恢复正常生产节前正丁醇生产工厂大幅让利积极出货为主节后主流工厂控量销售现货供应有限需求方面下游原料整体开工相对稳定经过连续让利后下游节前备货心态有所转淡节后集中低价补单市场询盘及新订单成交活跃辛醇方面供应方面辛醇工厂检修装置重启供应量增加库存暂维持低位需求方面节前下游增塑剂用户逢低补货低价成交好转节后下游增塑剂用户高价成交欠佳买盘减缓对高价原料采购步伐市场获利盘以出货为主本周正丁醇华东价格为9550元吨周环比上涨27与两周前持平异辛醇华东价格为12800元吨两周上涨108异辛醇-丙烯价差为7020元吨两周上涨240邻对硝基氯化苯价格上涨根据百川资讯供应方面多数工厂装置仍处于降负荷开工状态市场供应紧张需求方面下游农药医药染料行业按需采购原材料方面上游纯苯价格下跌对硝基氯化苯成本压力有所减缓国内主流企业中石化南京上调对硝基氯化苯300元吨至9200元吨本周邻对硝基氯化苯价格分别为7000元吨和9200元吨两周上涨分别为29和28请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-行业周报目录1指数-24-2基础原料-24-3C1-25-4C2-27-5C3-27-6C4-28-7芳烃-29-8化纤-29-9氯碱-32-10化肥-32-11磷化工-33-12农药-34-13聚氨酯-36-14橡胶-37-15塑料-37-16氟化工-38-17新能源材料-39-18钛产业链-41-19其他材料-42-20食品与饲料添加剂-42-21工业气体-43-22农产品-44-表目录表1重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差-9-图目录图1中国化工品价格指数CCPI-24-图2原油期货价格-24-图3美国原油库存-24-图4天然气现货价格-25-图5美国天然气库存-25-图6煤炭价格-25-图7乙二醇价格与价差-25-图8甲醇液氨价格与价差-25-图9DMF价格与价差-26-图10醋酸价格与价差-26-图11醋酸乙烯价格与价差-26-图12PVA价格与价差-26-图13甲酸甲醛二甲醚甲醇价格-26-图14乙烯价格与价差-27-图15环氧乙烷价格与价差-27-图16丙烯丙烷价格与价差-27-请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-行业周报图17环氧丙烷价格与价差-27-图18丙烯酸价格与价差-27-图19丙烯酸丁酯价格与价差-27-图20SAP价格-28-图21NPG价格-28-图22丁二烯价格-28-图23季戊四醇价格-28-图24MMA价格与价差-28-图25PMMAMMA价格及价差-28-图26己二酸价格与价差-29-图27主要芳烃价格-29-图28PX价格与价差-29-图29PTA价格与价差-29-图30PET瓶级价格与价差-29-图31PET半光级价格与价差-29-图32PET有光级价格与价差-30-图33涤纶短纤价格与价差-30-图34POY价格与价差-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