核心竞争力源于专业经验、资金和国企优势
　　2023-24年EPS复合年增长率预计为32%；首次评级：优于大市，目标价：港币4.20
　　成长行业中的领头羊。宏信建发的乐观前景源于（1）建筑设备租赁需求的长期上升趋势，主要由下游行业对高安全标准、低劳动力及设备维护成本以及高效率等日益增长的需求推动，以及（2）真实前景，即随着整合增加，通过占有更多份额在分散市场中实现高于平均水平的增长。我们认为宏信建发在2021-22年的每股收益复合年增长率为22%，具有强大的竞争优势以支持2023-24年高达32%的每股收益复合年增长率。我们给予该股优于大市评级，目标价为4.20港元。
　　充足的资源推动扩张和利润增长。截至2023年6月末，宏信建发运营约16万辆高空作业平台，体量为中国最大。2022年占据30.6%的市场份额。在母公司的支持下，宏信建发享有低成本融资，2023年上半年平均年化借贷成本为4.27%，相对同业具有优势。它拥有业内最大的数字化服务网络，能够快速响应客户需求，提供全面的服务能力，提升客户体验。宏信建发将在自持和轻资产两种模式下进一步扩大设备量以及服务网络，根据我们的预测，这将支持2023-24年22%的收入和32%的每股收益复合年增长率。
　　估值和投资风险。基于11.5倍2023年市盈率我们得出宏信建发4.20港元的目标价。目标倍数考虑了当前A/H股平均估值折价和宏信建发的高成长属性。催化剂包括强劲的盈利增长和更高的利润率。风险主要包括（1）建筑活动和设备租赁需求减弱；(2)租价下跌拖累利润率和盈利；(3)上市历史较短，股票交易波动可能较高。
　　

研究报告全文：工程机械2023年9月20日HorizonConstructionDevelopment9930HK20September2023李嵘CFA85239118270宏信建发9930HKlirongccbintlcom成长行业中的领头羊李睿85239118245katherineliccbintlcom核心竞争力源于专业经验资金和国企优势优于大市首次覆盖2023-24年EPS复合年增长率预计为32首次评现价目标价级优于大市目标价港币420港币380港币420截至2023年9月20日首次覆盖交易数据成长行业中的领头羊宏信建发的乐观前景源于1建筑设备租赁需求52周股价高低港币235-493的长期上升趋势主要由下游行业对高安全标准低劳动力及设备维护市值百万美元1553成本以及高效率等日益增长的需求推动以及2真实前景即随着整自由流通股数百万股3197合增加通过占有更多份额在分散市场中实现高于平均水平的增长我自由流通股份14们认为宏信建发在2021-22年的每股收益复合年增长率为22具有强3个月日均成交股数百万股033个月日均成交额百万美元01大的竞争优势以支持2023-24年高达32的每股收益复合年增长率我12个月预期回报率11们给予该股优于大市评级目标价为420港元资料来源彭博建银国际证券预测充足的资源推动扩张和利润增长截至2023年6月末宏信建发运营约16万辆高空作业平台体量为中国最大2022年占据306的市场股价相对于国企指数份额在母公司的支持下宏信建发享有低成本融资2023年上半年平港元均年化借贷成本为427相对同业具有优势它拥有业内最大的数字6化服务网络能够快速响应客户需求提供全面的服务能力提升客户5体验宏信建发将在自持和轻资产两种模式下进一步扩大设备量以及服务网络根据我们的预测这将支持2023-24年22的收入和32的每4股收益复合年增长率3估值和投资风险基于115倍2023年市盈率我们得出宏信建发420港2元的目标价目标倍数考虑了当前AH股平均估值折价和宏信建发的高1成长属性催化剂包括强劲的盈利增长和更高的利润率风险主要包括1建筑活动和设备租赁需求减弱2租价下跌拖累利润率和盈利005-202307-202308-202309-20233上市历史较短股票交易波动可能较高宏信建发9930HK国企指数资料来源彭博预测和估值股价表现截至12月31日2020202120222023F2024F表现区间一个月三个月十二个月收入百万人民币366461417878980011780绝对表现3844不适用同比NA68282420相对于国企指数3949不适用净利润百万人民币4487106679861185资料来源彭博同比NA5864820基本每股收益人民币018026024034041同比NA46104520市盈率倍19813615110487市净率倍1716150909股本回报率85125105113104杠杆比率612742742604594资料来源彭博建银国际证券预测建银国际证券2HorizonConstructionDevelopment9930HK20September2023RatingdefinitionsOutperformOexpectedreturn10overthenexttwelvemonthsNeutralNexpectedreturnbetween-10and10overthenexttwelvemonthsUnderperformUexpectedreturn-10overthenexttwelvemonthsAnalystcertificationTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentCCBIGrouphashadaninvestmentbankingrelationshipwithHorizonConstructionDevelopment9930HKDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbesolelyresponsibleformakingtheirownindependentinvestigationofthebusinessfinancialconditionandprospectsofcompaniesreferredtointhisdocumentReadersarecautionedthatithepriceandvalueofsecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentandtheincomederivedfromthemmayfluctuateiipastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformanceiiianyanalysisratingsandrecommendationsmadeinthisdocumentareintendedforlong-termatleastfor12monthsandisnotlinkedtoanear-termassessmentofthelikelyperformanceofthesecuritiesorcompaniesinquestionInanyeventfutureactualresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosesetforthinanyforward-lookingstatementshereinivfuturereturnsarenotguaranteedandalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccurandvfluctuationsinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffectthevaluepriceorincomeofanysecurityorrelatedinstrumentreferredtointhisdocumentItshouldbenotedthatthisdocumentcoversonlythosesecuritiesorcompaniesasspecifiedhereinanddoesnotextendtoanyderivativeinstrumentsthereofthevalueofwhichmaybeaffectedbymanyfactorsandmaynotcorrespondwiththevalueoftheunderlyingsecuritiesTradingintheseinstrumentsisconsideredriskyandarenotsuitableforallinvestorsWhileallreasonablecarehasbeentakentoensurethatthefactsstatedhereinareaccurateandthattheforward-lookingstatementsopinionsandexpectationscontainedhereinarebasedonfairandreasonableassumptionsCCBIShasnotbeenabletoverifyindependentlysuchfactsorassumptionsandCCBISshallnotbeliablefortheaccuracycompletenessorcorrectnessthereofandnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeexpressorimpliedinthisregardAllpricingreferredtointhisdocumentisasofthecloseoflocalmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussedunlessotherwisestatedandforinformationpurposesonlyThereisnorepresentationthatanytransactioncanorcouldhavebeeneffectedatthosepricesandanypricesdonotnecessarilyreflectCCBISinternalbooksandrecordsortheoreticalmodel-basedvaluationsandmaybebasedoncertainassumptionsDifferentassumptionscouldresultinsubstantiallydifferentresultsAnystatementswhichmaybecontainedhereinattributedtoathird-partyrepresentCCBISinterpretationofthedatainformationandoropinionsprovidedbythatthirdpartyeitherpubliclyorthroughasubscriptionserviceandsuchuseandinterpretationhavenotbeenreviewedorendorsedbythethirdpartyReproductionanddistributionofthesethirdpartycontentsinanyformisprohibitedexceptwiththepriorwrittenconsentofsuchthirdpartyTherecipientsmustmaketheirownassessmentsoftherelevanceaccuracyandadequacyoftheinformationcontainedinthisdocumentandmakesuchindependentinvestigationastheymayconsidernecessaryorappropriateforsuchpurposeRecipientsshouldseekindependentlegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmentandortaxadviceiftheyhaveanydoubtaboutthecontentsofthisdocumentandsatisfythemselvespriortomakinganyinvestmentdecisionthatsuchinvestmentisinlinewiththeirowninvestmentobjectivesandhorizonsUseofhyperlinkstootherinternetsitesorresourcesifanyasreferredtointhisdocumentisatusersownriskTheyareprovidedCCBISECURITIES3HorizonConstructionDevelopment9930HK20September2023solelyforthepurposeofconvenienceandinformationandthecontentoftheseinternetsitesorresourcesdoesnotinanywayformpartofthisdocumentThecontentsaccuracyopinionexpressedandotherlinksprovidedatthesesitesarenotinvestigatedverifiedmonitoredorendorsedbyCCBISCCBISexpresslydisclaimsanyresponsibilityforanddoesnotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimpliedthecompletenessaccuracyappropriatenessavailabilityorsecurityofinformationfoundonthesewebsitesUsersofthesewebsitesaresolelyresponsibleformakingallenquiriesinvestigationandriskassessmentbeforeproceedingwithanyonlineorofflineaccessortransactionwithanyofthesethirdpartiesAllactivitiesconductedbyusersviaoratthesewebsitesareattheirownriskCCBISdoesnotguaranteethesecurityofanyinformationusersmayforwardorberequestedtoprovidetoanythirdpartiesviathesewebsitesUsersaredeemedtohaveirrevocablywaivedanyclaimsagainstCCBISforanylossordamagesufferedasaresultofanyaccesstoorinteractionwithanyofthesewebsitesUponrequestCCBISmayprovidespecializedresearchproductsorservicestocertaincustomersfocusingontheprospectsforspecificsecuritiesascomparedwithothercoveredsecuritiesovervaryingtimehorizonsorunderdifferingmarketconditionsWhiletheviewsexpressedinthesesituationsmaynotalwaysbedirectionallyconsistentwiththelong-termviewsexpressedintheanalystspublishedresearchCCBIShasproceduresinplacetopreventselectivedisclosureandwillupdatetherelevantreaderswhenourviewshaschangedCCBISalsohasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanagepotentialconflictsofinterestthatmayariseinconnectionwithitsresearchbusinessandservicesChineseWallproceduresarealsoinplacetoensurethatanyconfidentialandorpricesensitiveinformationisproperlyhandledCCBISwilluseitsbestendeavorstocomplywiththerelevantlawsandregulationsinthisre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