8月份数据显示增长势头有所改善。预计经济将进一步温和复苏。汽车销售和线下消费的进一步改善推动社会消费品零售总额的增长。广义基础设施投资和制造业投资增长反弹。近期房地产销售亦出现企稳迹象。全球制造业的触底回升有助稳定中国的贸易。
　　我们预计宏观政策将持续宽松。央行近期加大货币政策宽松力度，以降低借贷成本，确保流动性充足。我们预计宽松立场将持续。财政支出力度和地方政府专项债的发行将加速发力。针对性的财政措施预计持续注重支持消费并管理债务风险。
　　

研究报告全文：Economics15September2023CCBISECURITIESRESEARCHChinaEconomicsUpdateAugdataconfirmsgrowthstabilization中国经济评论8月数据显示经济增长改善AugdatapointstoimprovinggrowthmomentumWeexpectacontinuedrecoveryKevinXieaheadRetailsaleswereboostedbycarsalesandcontinuedimprovementinoffline85239118241consumptionBroadinfrastructureandmanufacturinginvestmentgrowthreboundedkevinxieccbintlcomwhilepropertysalesshowedsignsofstabilizationAbottoming-outintheglobalmanufacturingcyclehasalsobeenpositivetoChinastradeLiCuiWeexpectpoliciestostayaccommodativeThePBoChasrampedupmonetaryeasing85239118274tolowerborrowingcostsandensureadequateliquidityWeexpectthiscuiliccbintlcomaccommodativestancetocontinueFiscalspendingandspecialbondissuancewillHuitingYanacceleratetostabilizegrowthWealsoanticipatetargetedfiscaleasingtosupport85239118012consumptionandmanagedebtrisksyanhuitingccbintlcom8月份数据显示增长势头有所改善预计经济将进一步温和复苏汽车销售和线下消费的进一步改善推动社会消费品零售总额的增长广义基础设施投资和制造业投资增长反弹近期房地产销售亦出现企稳迹象全球制造业的触底回升有助稳定中国的贸易我们预计宏观政策将持续宽松央行近期加大货币政策宽松力度以降低借贷成本确保流动性充足我们预计宽松立场将持续财政支出力度和地方政府专项债的发行将加速发力针对性的财政措施预计持续注重支持消费并管理债务风险AnalystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpageThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd1Economics15September2023ReboundinindustrialproductionIPandretailsalesIPgrowthreboundedfasterthanexpected45YoYactualversus39YoYexpectedpointingtotheresilienceofChinasindustrialsectordespitesevereweatherconditionsnationwidethroughoutAugSequentiallyIPgrowthpickedupfromaflatoutcomeinJulto05MoMinAugconsistentwiththereboundinboththeCaixinandofficialmanufacturingPMIsBysectorminingoutputgrew23YoYinAugdrivenbysharpaccelerationinenergy-relatedindustrialoutputamidrisingglobalenergypricesGrowthinelectricityoutputslowedinAuglikelyweigheddownbythehighbaselastyearandsevereweatherconditionsGrowthinmanufacturingoutputacceleratedto54YoYinAugGrowthinautoproductionroseto10whileelectricmachineryequipmentoutputremainedstrongatover10inAugdespiteagradualslowdownFig1Furthermoregrowthintheoutputofcomputerscommunicationsandotherelectronicsacceleratedtoalmost6followingsevenmonthsofsoftnessindicatingalikelyreboundinglobaltechdemandSolidoutputgrowthindownstreamsectorssupporteddemandforupstreamproductssuchassteelandnon-ferrousproductsdespiteweakhousingconstructionRetailsalespostedasolidreboundinAugRetailsalesgrowthreboundedbyalmost2pptto46YoYinAugbetterthantheconsensusforecastfor30YoYSeasonallyadjustedsequentialgrowthacceleratedfromasmallcontractioninthepreviousmonthto03MoMinAugthoughtheresultwasbelowtheaverageof07MoMfor2019duringthepre-pandemicperiodBycategorygrowthincateringremainedstrongat124YoYinAugalbeitslowingasthenormalizationofofflineconsumptionrunsitscourseOnlinesalespickedupslightlyGrowthingoodsconsumptionpickedupfollowingsluggishgrowthinJunandJulAreboundincarsaleswasakeycontributoraslocalgovernmentsofferedincentivesandcardealersoffereddiscountsFig2Fixed-assetinvestmentFAIgrowthreboundedslightlyto20YoYinAugbyourestimateFig3AcceleratinggrowthinbroadinfrastructureandmanufacturinginvestmentwasthebrightspotYoYcontractioninthepropertysectoreasedBycategoryBroadinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthpickedupto96YoYinAugdrivenbystronginvestmentinChinaspowersectorup33YoYinAugBycontrastgrowthintraditionalinfrastructureinvestmentslowedto39YoYtheslowestpacesinceApr2022Theinvestmentpushrelatedtothegreentransitionremainsthekeymedium-termpolicythemeinourviewManufacturinginvestmentgrowthroseto71YoYinAugwithcontinueddivergenceacrossindustriesYear-to-datehigh-techmanufacturinginvestmentgrowthremainedsolidat112YoYinAugFurthermoreinvestmentintoChinasautoindustrygrewby191YoYamidtheriseofChinasNEVsBycontrasttraditionalindustriesfaceddownwardpressureforinstancetextilescontracted15YoYinAugWeestimatethecontractioninrealestateinvestmenteasedforthefirsttimethisyearto109YoYinAugHoweverpropertydeveloperscontinuedtofaceanincreasinglychallengingfundingoutlookTheyear-on-yearcontractioninfundingforthecurrentyearwidened5pptto25YoYOtherpropertyindicatorsremainedsluggishThecontractioninpropertystartseasedslightlyto23YoYthoughitremainswideThecontractioninpropertysaleswaslargelyunchangedat24YoYGrowthinpropertycompletionsslowedto11HighfrequencypropertysalesdatahasshowntentativesignsofimprovementlatelyFig4AccordingtotheNBSthecontractionintheaveragenewhomepriceamong70largeChinesecitieswidenedto029MoMinAugthelargestcontractionsinceOct2022partlyreflectingpropertydevelopereffortstoattractsalesviapricecutsfollowingeasingrestrictionsonthepropertysectorCCBISECURITIES2Economics15September2023OurviewAugdatasuggestssequentialgrowthmomentumhasimprovedTheretailpick-upinmostconsumergoodsreflectsimprovementinspendingfromcarsalestocellphonesalongsideasmallercontractioninhousing-relatedgoodsSolidspendinggrowthinmobilephonesislikelytocontinueasAppleandHuaweirecentlyunveilednewflagshipdevicesFurthermoreservicesconsumptionsuchastourismandentertainmenthasshownstronggrowthduringpastsummerholidayperiodsForexampleboxofficesalesincreased75inAug2023comparedtoAug2022Abottoming-outoftheglobalmanufacturingcycleandapotentialreboundinthedemandforglobalconsumerelectronicsislikelytostabilizeChineseexportsaheadFig6EasingrestrictionswillhelpstabilizethepropertysectorTheJulPolitburomeetingdecidedsupplyanddemandinthehousingmarkethasundergonemajorchangesdetailshereSincethenthegovernmenthasdeliveredaseriesofmeasurestoeasemortgagerulesincludingloweringdownpaymentscuttingmortgageratesonbothnewandexistingmortgagesandallowingbuyerstoenjoypreferentialmortgagerulesforfirsthomepurchasesWeexpectagrowingnumberofmajorcitiestoimplementadditionaleasingmeasurestosupporthousingdemandundertheonecityonepolicyframeworkTentativesignsofhousingmarketstabilizationhaveemergedlatelyFig4SepandOctaretraditionalpeakseasonsfortheChinesepropertymarketwhichislikelytohelpsalesgrowthinthecomingmonthsalthoughconsolidationpressureinthesectorwillremainMacropoliciestostayaccommodativeLocalgovernmentspecialbondissuancepickedupinAugcontributingtostronger-than-expectedAugcreditgrowthreadherefordetailsandFig5WeestimatelocalgovernmentswillissueaboutRMB900binspecialbondsinSepfullyutilizingthe2023quotaFiscalspendingintheremainderof2023couldalsoacceleratetosupportdomesticdemandFurthermoredefusingdebtrisksamonghighlyindebtedlocalgovernmentsremainapriorityPolicymakersarelikelytodeliveraRMB1trefinancingquotaWeexpectadditionalmonetaryeasingtolowerborrowingcostsandensureadequateliquidityThePBoChasrampeduppolicyeasinglatelyItannounceditwouldcuttheRequiredReserveRatioRRRforallbanksby25bpeffective15Sep2023markingthesecondRRRcutthisyearAspartoftodaysOpenMarketOperationsOMOon15Sep2023thePBoCnetinjectedRMB191bviatheMedium-TermLendingFacilityMLFwhiletheMLFratewaskeptunchangedat25followinga15bpcutinAugFurthercutstopolicyinterestratesandtheRRRarestillonthecardsinourviewFig1OutputinelectricmachineryandchemicalFig2ModestimprovementacrossmostconsumergoodsmaterialsledthereboundinIPIPgrowthYoYYoYPharma100ComputerElectronicEquip80SpecialEquip60ElectricMachinery40GeneralEquip20Food0ChemicalMaterial-20Textile-40Automobile01-2107-2101-2207-2201-2307-23FerrousMetalSmeltingAllconsgoodsCellphone-1001020PetrorelatedElectricapplianceJul-23Aug-23HousingrelatedAutoSourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCEICCCBISCCBISECURITIES3Economics15September2023Fig3InfrastructureandmanufacturinginvestmentheldupFig4PropertysalesstabilizedinrecentweeksFAIbysectorYoY30-Majorcitieshomesales10thdsqmbyweek40600500204003000200-201000-4015913172125293337414549031803190320032103220323Week2017-2019average2020ManufacturingRealestate20212022BroadinfraFAIAll2023SourceNBSCCBISSourceNBSCCBISFig5SolidspecialbondissuancemomentumintoSepFig6Tentativesignsofabottom-outinglobalmanufacturingRMBbPt3MMAYoY4500308040002560203500153000401025005202000001500-5-101000-20-15500-20-400JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec010701100113011601190122AnnualchangeinglobalmanuPMILHS2020202120222023ChineseexportgrowthRHSSourceNBSCCBISSourceCEICWindCCBISCCBISECURITIES4Economics15September2023AnalystcertificationTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbesolelyresponsibleformakingtheirownindependentinvestigationofthebusinessfinancialconditionandprospectsofcompaniesreferredtointhisdocumentReadersarecautionedthatithepriceandvalueofsecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentandtheincomederivedfromthemmayfluctuateiipastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformanceiiianyanalysisratingsandrecommendationsmadeinthisdocumentareintendedforlong-termatleastfor12monthsandisnotlinkedtoanear-termassessmentofthelikelyperformanceofthesecuritiesorcompaniesinquestionInanyeventfutureactualresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosesetforthinanyforward-lookingstatementshereinivfuturereturnsarenotguaranteedandalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccurandvfluctuationsinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffectthevaluepriceorincomeofanysecurityorrelatedinstrumentreferredtointhisdocumentItshouldbenotedthatthisdocumentcoversonlythosesecuritiesorcompaniesasspecifiedhereinanddoesnotextendtoanyderivativeinstrumentsthereofthevalueofwhichmaybeaffectedbymanyfactorsandmaynotcorrespondwiththevalueoftheunderlyingsecuritiesTradingintheseinstrumentsisconsideredriskyandarenotsuitableforallinvestorsWhileallreasonablecarehasbeentakentoensurethatthefactsstatedhereinareaccurateandthattheforward-lookingstatementsopinionsandexpectationscontainedhereinarebasedonfairandreasonableassumptionsCCBIShasnotbeenabletoverifyindependentlysuchfactsorassumptionsandCCBISshallnotbeliablefortheaccuracycompletenessorcorrectnessthereofandnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeexpressorimpliedinthisregardAllpricingreferredtointhisdocumentisasofthecloseoflocalmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussedunlessotherwisestatedandforinformationpurposesonlyThereisnorepresentationthatanytransactioncanorcouldhavebeeneffectedatthosepricesandanypricesdonotnecessarilyreflectCCBISinternalbooksandrecordsortheoreticalmodel-basedvaluationsandmaybebasedoncertainassumptionsDifferentassumptionscouldresultinsubstantiallydifferentresultsAnystatementswhichmaybecontainedhereinattributedtoathird-partyrepresentCCBISinterpretationofthedatainformationandoropinionsprovidedbythatthirdpartyeitherpubliclyorthroughasubscriptionserviceandsuchuseandinterpretationhavenotbeenreviewedorendorsedbythethirdpartyReproductionanddistributionofthesethirdpartycontentsinanyformisprohibitedexceptwiththepriorwrittenconsentofsuchthirdpartyTherecipientsmustmaketheirownassessmentsoftherelevanceaccuracyandadequacyoftheinformationcontainedinthisdocumentandmakesuchindependentinvestigationastheymayconsidernecessaryorappropriateforsuchpurposeRecipientsshouldseekindependentlegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmentandortaxadviceiftheyhaveanydoubtaboutthecontentsofthisdocumentandsatisfythemselvespriortomakinganyinvestmentdecisionthatsuchinvestmentisinlinewiththeirowninvestmentobjectivesandhorizonsUseofhyperlinkstootherinternetsitesorresourcesifanyasreferredtointhisdocumentisatusersownriskTheyareprovidedsolelyforthepurposeofconvenienceandinformationandthecontentoftheseinternetsitesorresourcesdoesnotinanywayformpartofthisdocumentThecontentsaccuracyopinionexpressedandotherlinksprovidedatthesesitesarenotinvestigatedverifiedmonitoredorendorsedbyCCBISCCBISexpresslydisclaimsanyresponsibilityforanddoesnotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimpliedthecompletenessaccuracyappropriatenessavailabilityorsecurityofinformationfoundonthesewebsitesUsersofthesewebsitesaresolelyresponsibleformakingallenquiriesinvestigationandriskassessmentbeforeproceedingwithanyonlineorofflineaccessorCCBISECURITIES5Economics15September2023transactionwithanyofthesethirdpartiesAllactivitiesconductedbyusersviaoratthesewebsitesareattheirownriskCCBISdoesnotguaranteethesecurityofanyinformationusersmayforwardorberequestedtoprovidetoanythirdpartiesviathesewebsitesUsersaredeemedtohaveirrevocablywaivedanyclaimsagainstCCBISforanylossordamagesufferedasaresultofanyaccesstoorinteractionwithanyofthesewebsitesUponrequestCCBISmayprovidespecializedresearchproductsorservicestocertaincustomersfocusingontheprospectsforspecificsecuritiesascomparedwithothercoveredsecuritiesovervaryingtimehorizonsorunderdifferingmarketconditionsWhiletheviewsexpressedinthesesituationsmaynotalwaysbedirectionallyconsistentwiththelong-termviewsexpressedintheanalystspublishedresearchCCBIShasproceduresinplacetopreventselectivedisclosureandwillupdatetherelevantreaderswhenourviewshaschangedCCBISalsohasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanagepotentialconflictsofinterestthatmayariseinconnectionwithitsresearchbusinessandservicesChineseWallproceduresarealsoinplacetoensurethatanyconfidentialandorpricesensitiveinformationisproperlyhandledCCBISwilluseitsbestendeavorstocomplywiththerelevantlawsandregulationsinthisrespectNeverthelesstherecipientsshouldbeawarethatCCBCCBIStheiraffiliatesandortheirofficersdirectorsandemployeesmaydobusinesswiththeissuersofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentincludinginvestmentbankingbusinessordirectinvestmentbusinessormayholdinterestinandorlateraddordisposesuchsecuritiesorinanyrelatedinvestmentforthemselvesandoronbehalfoftheirclientsfromtimetotimeAsaresultinvestorsshouldbeawarethatCCBISmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisdocumentandCCBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofFurthertheinformationcontainedhereinmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsexpressedbyotherassociatesofCCBISorothermembersoftheCCBorCCBIHgroupofcompaniesWherethisdocumentreferstoanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorindustrysectorsthisisfortheinformationoftheinstitutionalandprofessionalcustomersofCCBISonlyandthisdocumentshouldnotbedistributedtoretailcustomersThisdocumentisnotdirectedatyouifCCBISisprohibitedorrestrictedbyanylegislationorregulationinanyjurisdictionfrommakingitavailabletoyouYoushouldsatisfyyourselfbeforereadingitthatCCBISispermittedtoprovideresearchmaterialconcerninginvestmentstoyouandthatyouarepermittedandentitledtoreceiveandreadthedocumentunderrelevantlegislationandregulationsInparticularthisdocumentisonlydistributedtocertainUSPersonstowhomCCBISispermittedtodistributeaccordingtoUSsecuritieslawsbutcannototherwisebedistributedortransmittedwhetherdirectlyorindirectlyintotheUSortoanyotherUSpersonAnyUSpersonasdefinedundertheExchangeActortheUSInternalRevenueCodeof1986asamendedwhoisarecipientofthismaterialwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsbasedontheinformationprovidedhereinshoulddirectsuchtransactionexclusivelytoandsuchtransactionshallbeeffectedonlythroughCCBInternationalOverseasUSAIncThisdocumentalsocannotbedistributedortransmittedwhetherdirectlyorindirectlyintoJapanandCanadaandnottothegeneralpublicinthePeoplesRepublicofChinaforthepurposeofthisdocumentexcludingHongKongMacauandTaiwanunlessunderapplicablelawsAnyunauthorizedreproductionorredistributionbyanymeanstoanypersonsinwholeorinpartofthisdocumentisstrictlyprohibitedandCCBISacceptsnoliabilitywhatsoeverfortheactionsofthirdpartiesindistributingthisresearchreportIfthisdocumenthasbeendistributedbyelectronictransmissionsuchase-mailthensuchtransmissioncannotbeguaranteedtobesecureorerror-freeasinformationcouldbeinterceptedcorruptedlostdestroyedarrivelateorincompleteorcontainvirusesCCBISthereforedoesnotacceptliabilityforanyerrorsoromissionsinthecontentsofthisdocumentwhichmayariseasaresultofelectronictransmissionThedisclosurescontainedinthisdocumentpreparedbyCCBISshallbegovernedbyandconstruedinaccordancewiththelawsofHongKongDistributioninSingaporeTheinformationresearchhereinispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBISaforeignaffiliateofCCBInternationalSingaporePteLtdCCBISGCoRegNo201531408WCCBISGholdsacapitalmarketsserviceslicensefromtheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeforfundmanagementdealingincapitalmarketproductsspecificallysecuritiesandcollectiveinvestmentschemesandprovidingcustodialservicesandisanExemptFinancialAdviserundertheFinancialAdvisersActinrespectofadvisingothersbyissuingorpromulgatingresearchanalysisorresearchreportsCCBISmaydistributeinformationresearchpursuanttoanarrangementwithCCBISGunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsCCBISislicensedinHongKongtoprovidesuchinformationresearchreportsSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCCBISGat65-68071880formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththeinformationdistributedCopyright2023CCBISThesignslogosandinsigniausedinthisresearchreportandthecompanynameCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedaretheregisteredandunregisteredtrademarksofCCBCCBIHandorCCBISAllrightsareherebyreservedAllmaterialpresentedinthisdocumentunlessindicated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