研究报告全文：8Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyTraderemainsweakasbaseeffectnarrowsitsslumpChinasexportsandimportsofgoodsnarrowedtheirdeclinesfasterthanBingnanYEPhDexpectedinAugustthankstothebaseeffectOverseasdemandforgoodswas85269895170tepidasglobalconsumersshiftedfromgoodsconsumptiontoserviceyebingnancmbicomhkconsumptionDespitesomeimprovementglobalmanufacturingPMIremainedinFrankLiuthecontractionterritoryasforeigntradeinmajorexporterscontinuedtodecline85237618957DomesticdemandwasalsoweakasthedeflationfurtherdeepenedtheimportfrankliucmbicomhkdeclineLookingforwardChinasexportsandimportsmaycontinuetoimprovefromtheYoYperspectiveduetothebaseeffectandshrinkageofdeflationTheYoYexportsandimportsareexpectedtodrop23and32respectivelyin202370TradeweaknessimpliesdownsidepressureonChinaseconomicgrowthasthe6050policymakershavetoactivelyloosenpoliciestoachievethe5growthtarget403020Exportsofgoodsremainedvulnerableacrossmajortradingpartners10amidweakoverseasdemandChinasexportsofgoodsdropped88YoY010allonYoYbasisunlessspecifiedinAugustafterdecreasing145inJuly2030ExportstoUSASEANandSouthKoreamoderatedto88133and145201820192020202120222023dropinAugustafterdecreasing231214and179inJulyExportstoExportsofgoodsImportsofgoodsEUandJapanremainedsluggishbydropping196and206comparedSourceWindCMBIGMtothedeclineof206and184inJulyAsoneofthefewtradingpartnerswithpositivegrowthexportstoRussiasawasharpslowdownfrom518TradesurplusUSbngrowthto163growthinAugustGlobalmanufacturingsectorwascloseto120arecessionasthePMIandtradeactivitycontinuedtoshrinkforseveral100monthsGlobalhouseholdscontinuedtoshiftfromgoodsconsumptionto80serviceconsumptionastheformerwasmoresensitivetohighinterestrates60thanthelatterInadditionglobaltradeofgoodsfacedpressurefromtheSino-40USconflictandde-riskstrategyofrelatedcountries200MostproductscontinuedtodeclinewhileshipvehicleandhomeJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecappliancesawstronggrowthExportsoftextileproductautomaticdata2023Y2022Y2021YprocessingequipmentgarmentintegratedcircuitsplasticproductsandsteelSourceWindCMBIGMproductsnarrowedtheirdeclineto641821254674and306afterdropping179289187147148and409inJulyMeanwhileexportsofautopartsandhomeappliancesreboundedto26and114growthafterfalling45and36inJulyAtthesametimeexportsofshipandmotorvehiclesrose408and352inAugustdownfromthegrowthof824and833inJulyMoreoverexportsofcellphonedeclined205from22growthinJulyImportsofgoodsimprovedwithstronggrowthinimportvolumeofmostcommoditiesChinasimportsofgoodsdeclined73inAugustafterdropping124inJulyImportpatternscontinuewithahighervolumeandamuchlowerpriceacrosstheboardsinceearly2023InAugustimportvolumeofgrainsoybeancrudeoilandnaturalgasrose143306309and227upfromtheincreasesof10323517and185inJulyTheimportvolumeofironoreandcopperoresawstronggrowthat106and188from25and37inJulywhilecoalimportvolumemoderatedto505from669ImportvolumeofsteelproductscopperproductsmachinetoolsautoairplaneandbeautycosmeticsfurtherweakenedindicatingastilldampeneddomesticconsumerdemandPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk8Sep2023Exportsandimportsofgoodsareexpectedtodrop23and32in2023ChinasexportsandimportsmaycontinuetoimprovefromtheYoYperspectiveastheymayseepositiveYoYgrowthin4Q23WeexpectChinasexportsofgoodstodrop23in2023afterrising63in2022Theimportsofgoodsareexpectedtodecline32in2023aftergrowing1in2022StrongerlooseningpoliciesareexpectedtocarryoutasChinaseconomymaygraduallyimproveaheadPolicymakershaveadoptedabroadspectrumofsupportivepoliciesincludinglooseningpropertypoliciesexpandingcreditsupplycuttingdepositratesandexistingmortgageratesrelievinglocalgovernmentdebtriskandactivatingcapitalmarketLookingaheadChinamay1furtherloosenpropertypolicieswithanaccelerationofurbanvillagerenovationandaffordablehousingconstructionandlooseningofhomepurchaserestrictionsintier-oneandtier-twocities2maintainliquidityeasingwithfurtherexpansionofcreditsupplyandreductionoftheRRRdepositinterestandLPR3activelyresolvethelocalgovernmentcontingentdebtriskbysupportinglocalgovernmentstousespecialbondfinancingandstate-ownedassetstoreplaceorrepaysomecontingentdebtandencouragingbankstorollovermaturedlocalgovernmentcontingentdebt4acceleratetheissuanceofgovernmentbondsemploypartofthedebtquotafornextyearinadvancein4Qandincreasebroadfiscaldeficitratenextyeartofacilitatefiscalexpansion5boosttheretailsalesofautomobileselectronicproductsandhomefurnishingandstimulateserviceconsumptionsuchassportsleisureandculturaltourism6focusonindustriessuchasdigitaleconomyartificialintelligenceandadvancedmanufacturingandincreasetheintensityofindustrialpolicysupport7establishandimprovethenormalizedcommunicationmechanismwithentrepreneursandenhancetheconfidenceofprivatebusinessesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE28Sep2023Figure1GrowthofExportandImportVolumeFigure2GrowthofExportandImportPricesYoY3MMAYoY3MMA80207015605010405302001050101020152016201720182019202020212022202320162017201820192020202120222023ExportvolumeofgoodsImportsvolumeofgoodsPPIExportpriceofgoodsImportpriceofgoodsSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3ChinaExportsbyDestinationYoYGrowthShare201820192020202120221Q231H23JulyAug201820192020202120228M23World99053629663153214588100010001000100010001000US113125792751217017923195192168174172163147EU984967326867166206196164172151154157153Japan722604163442447184201595755494847ASEAN1421276726117718615214133128144148144159155India1272410846221739099507313026293334Africa10879092991121931544954424544444652LatinAmerica1372108520106051114978606158687174Russia1203717338128471781518163192020202132Australia1421810924219010407199123191921202222UK0310416319961743768129232528262323Canada1215014022445171193273147141516151513SouthKorea592114324956046179145444443444645SaudiArabia513691777925739925324-071011091111HKChina827623286150899885251211121051048376ChineseTaipei106132913044222124723348202223232320SourceWindCMBIGMFigure4ExportsGrowthinMajorEconomiesFigure5ChinasMarketSharesinPartnersTradeYoY3MMA60355040303020251020010152030104052018201920202021202220232017201520162017201820192020202120222023USJapanGermanyKoreaVietnamChinaUSEUJapanIndonesiaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE38Sep2023Figure6ChinaExportsbyProductYoYShare201820192020202120221Q231H23JulyAug201820192020202120228M23TextileYarnRelatedProducts8109292562012110917964484859434141TravelGoodsBags180524235128229114111989111108081011GarmentAccessories034064240321359187125636153514948Toy45242753775637112267155101213141412FurniturePartsThereof7608118264536810015268222223222019LampsLightingFixturesSimilarProducts569614331261174011476121315151313PlasticProducts12211219629193293614874171933293030SteelProducts11211315480218736711409306242218242727UnwroughtAluminum25874141487337238316375248070605060706IntegratedCircuits2662001483200317617714746344145464338Ship4663153262044977824408090807060607MotorVehicles123413611927478161081833352060606101729AutoPartsAccessories1083662337741131294526222122232326GeneralEquipment752646123461201716161617AutomaticDataProcessingEquipment1162107529924328918281766655Fertilizer16227837321618130266385030303030303Ceramicproducts11716500223642988269230091010090908Rareearth23714421990062829171415322002002001002003003Cellphone0916625981482220548444033Homeappliance23522313344203611426292426Medicalequipment13313340511958433611771050507060505SourceWindCMBIGMFigure7ConsumerConfidenceinMajorEconomiesFigure8ManufacturingPMIinMajorEconomiesindex12070110656010055905080457040356030502520182017201920202021202220232019201720182020202120222023USJapanEUSouthKoreaAustraliaUSJapanEurozoneBrazilIndiaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9AutoSalesinMajorEconomiesFigure10UnemploymentRatesinMajorEconomiesYoY2YCAGRfor20212YCAGRfromMar2023forChina16302014101201010820630404502020192020202120222023201220202013201420152016201720182019202120222023SouthKoreaJapanGermany2011USChinaUSEurozoneJapanAustraliaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE48Sep2023Figure1110YT-BondRatesinMajorEconomiesFigure12BanksCreditGrowthinMajorEconomiesYoY6145121048364221020416200920142008201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320102021200720082009201120122013201420152016201720182019202020222023USJapanEurozoneUSEurozoneJapanSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure13ExchangeRatesFigure14USImportPriceGrowthbySourceindexend-2019100YoY1451213510812561154105295028520202021202220234USdollarindexUSDJPY6USDEURUSDRMB2017201820192020202120222023USDINRUSDMXNChinaMexicoJapanASEANEUUSDKRWSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure15GrowthofUSImportsbySourceFigure16GrowthofEUImportsbySourceYoY3MMAYoY3MMA1001008080606040402020002020404020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023ChinaAsiaexcludingChinaEUMexicoChinaUSJapanKoreaIndiaSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE58Sep2023Figure17ImportVolumeofCrudeOilFigure18ImportVolumeofIronOreMilliontonMillionton551101055010045959040858035753070JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2019Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2019Y2021Y2022Y2023YSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure19ImportVolumeofIntegratedCircuitFigure20ImportVolumeofMachineToolbillionthousand601255115010459408357306255204JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2019Y2021Y2022Y2023Y2021Y2022Y2023YSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE68Sep2023Figure21ChinaImportVolumePricebyProductImportvolumeYoYImportpriceYoY20192020202120221Q231H23JulyAug20192020202120221Q231H23JulAugGrain362801811074745103143515426323711624166171Soybean00133385613513623530672134072128919235230Ironore059539159877251063297255428611911817039Copperore116107680517937188482144685135668315Coal63156692961930669505111148659297168227388340Crudeoil957354096711717030983322524427102202323232Natualgas6953199993658185227152383983950545134290Steelproducts65644295259405352139281812755792311511026812Copperproducts603411726212612027507809455251271225422Plasticsinprimaryform1241011641006658134615910639420170187228204Rubber6213694871071808698457226417214219197212Integratedcircuits662211691532291855831826157135494811574Machinetool0018807144981543554250030825815607798644Auto6611406652742240063368114757691812011Airplane4863542942735771400231125125300123135064929224Medcine000631288334362237402004116525755172160271Beautycosmetics00375211880107240264002481701821441105SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE78Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8