研究报告全文：MN7Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCTGRGroup600905CHSoundbusinessoperationrisingdepreciationdragsonearningsTargetPriceRMB624CTGRGroupannouncedits1H23resultswithin-linebusinessoperationbutPreviousTPRMB679operatingcostmissingexpectationsCTGRachievedrevenueofRMB1370bnupUpDownside26by1298YoYAttributableNPwasRMB452bndroppedby1010YoYAlthoughCTGRreportedsolidoperationinelectricitygenerationandslightlybeaton-gridtariffCurrentPriceRMB495theincreaseincostsandoperatingexpensesunderupdatedaccountingstandardsledtoadropinearningsWebelieveCTGRwillgrowrapidlysinceitsabundantChinaEnergyprojectsunderconstructionareabouttooperatein2H23andfollowingyearsandlowernewenergyupstreamcostswillleadtohigherIRRoftheprojectsWeMeganXiaCESGAadjustedourTPtoRMB624andmaintainedaBUYrating85237610836meganxiacmbicomhkRobustoperationalperformancedrives1H23revenuegrowthrisingoperatingcostserodeoverallearningsIn1H23CTGRsrevenuewasupbyStockData1298YoYduetoresilientpowergenerationgrowthAttributableNPdroppedbyMktCapRMBmn141974Avg3mthstoRMBmn3769810YoYItsoperatingcashflowrose2179YoYCTGRsrevenuerosewhile52wHighLowRMB61149attributableNPslippeddueto11455YoYriseinon-gridpowergeneration2TotalIssuedSharesmn28624slightlybeaton-gridtariffforwindsolarpowerofRMB04960506kWh33467SourceFactSetYoYincreaseinoperatingcoststhankstohigherdepreciationunderaccountingShareholdingStructurestandardchangethedepreciationofprojectoperationcostsaccrueastheunitsChinaThreeGorgesGroup489enteroperationin2023afteratrialrunin2022andhighermanagementfeeandDuchengWeiyeGroup35416YoYriseinmanagementexpenseswhileinvestmentearningsdescendedSourceHKExbyRMB027bnSharePerformanceCTGRhasabundantprojectsinconstructionandapprovedwithexpectedAbsoluteRelativepromisinggrowthIn1H23CTGRrecordedanewly-addednewenergyinstalled1-mth-73-31capacityofapproximately18GW084065GWofwindsolarpowerMoreover3-mth-71-686-mth-118-54CTGRrecordedanapprovedandfiledprojectcapacityof55GWandtheplannedSourceFactSetinstalledcapacityofprojectsunderconstructiontotalled132GWWiththeprojectsgraduallycommencingby2H23andnextyearCTGRsinstalledcapacityofnew12-mthPricePerformanceenergyisexpectedtospeedupMeanwhileCTGRsIRRofnewly-addedpowerSourceFactSetplantprojectswillpotentiallyclimbduetolowerupstreamcostsbenefitingCTGRsearningsWeadjustedourTPtoRMB624maintainedBUYConsideringaccountingstandardadjustmentweslightlyraisedourestimatedoperatingcosttoRMB122191434416371mninFY23-25EandadjustedattributableNPtoRMB89321053412956mninFY23-25EHoweverwemaintainedourkeyassumptionsunchangedandstayedoptimisticaboutCTGRthankstoitssolidgrowthofpowergenerationandsteadyon-gridtariffandseveralprojectsareabouttostartoperationThusweraisedourtargetFY23EPEfrom18xto20xcloseto3-yearhistavgPEof19xforitssoundbusinessoutlookandweadjustedourTPtoRMB624MaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1548423812286823344438601NetprofitRMBmn564247155589321053412956EPSReportedRMB023025031037045YoYgrowth26397277216227ConsensusEPSRMBna025032038045ROE10197105111121PEx262208162136113PBx2320171513SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk7Sep2023Figure1CTGRsPEbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CTGRsPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3RevisiontableOldNewChange2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025EWindpowergenerationkGWh-Gridparirty3700842592004933700370078342591824933700000000SolarpowergenerationkGWh179020023297002942900179018223297052942880000000HydropowergenerationkGWh915915915915915915000000RevenueRMBmn286823344438601286823344438601000000NetIncomeRMBmn9716117861443589321053412956-81-106-102EPSRMB034041050031037045-82-102-95SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PeerstableA-shareClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINATHREEGO-A600905CH49614197380031036044196161613631130168151134CHINALONGYUAN-A001289CH196911884059096111125143205517791574216197178HUANENGPOWER-A600011CH780102450570770871051661013896745109104090CHINASOUTHERN-A003035CH6072299242018027037410329922231658324286243ZHONGMINENER-A600163CH4759039230440460484410801033990137121108CECEPWINDPOW-A601016CH339219498102803203511812111076969121111102Average173140119181614SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE27Sep2023Figure5PeerstableH-shareClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINASUNTIEN-H956HK2802639611054065080217480402325051047044CHINAPOWERINTE2380HK2933624454031045056348886611487072066060CHINARESPOWER836HK15427417704254299357186608515432083075068CGNNEWENERGYH1811HK214918236005006007135525441408nananaCHINALONGYUAN-H916HK63112801669096114129157610514456066059053CHINADATANGC-H1798HK1961425645038043052164474420350072062054DATANGINTLPO-H991HK1234423746020029035323571394326032030027HUANENGPOWER-H902HK38211036114073082102181487435349055051042HUADIANPOWER-H1071HK3075000901052062069151549457414057052043CONCORDNE182HK064551610012013015118495457396094089078Average574639060605SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6KeyassumptiontableWindPower20222023E2024E2025E2026ERevenue-RMBmn1688618874212962368227020YoY6812131114Totalattributedinstalledcapacity-MW1592217922204222342227022YoY1213141515Newly-addedinstalledcapacity-MW16532000250030003600YoY-6921252020Effectiveutilizationhours20652065208621062127YoY330111Gridparitypowergeneration3287837008425924933757489YoY4913151617Averagetariff051051050048047COGs-RMBmn6494811897411120213443YoY6325201520SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE37Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue113151548423812286823344438601Costofgoodssold478864409906122191434416371Grossprofit6527904413906164631910022230Operatingexpenses66211391576204323622513SGAexpense55710071406186421742316Others105133170179188197Operatingprofit5866790412330144201673819716Otherincome213241000Otherexpense18145148000Investmentgainloss52580181100100100ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV45511501289128910001000EBITDA98531309420207243582760231891Depreciation39075113763696971062311933Otheramortisation8177241241241241EBIT5866790412330144201673819716Interestincome38175223264568542Interestexpense212930204074477950524799NetInterestincomeexpense209128443987451544834258Foreignexchangegainloss000000Otherincomeexpense213241000Others49015824851189900900Pre-taxprofit428666409069110931315516359Incometax34455468694311841636Aftertaxprofit394160868383101501197114723Minorityinterest3304441227121814371767Netprofit36115642715589321053412956BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets210443372842804594156176653692Cashequivalents18511320710566227392166411354Accountreceivables123621908827007314333481837015Inventories79131222234275314Othercurrentassets675113025009500950095009PPE6703087864138354148747161959176892Intangibles187117385139489846584417Othernon-currentassets526329552075830770197791978819Totalassets142576218850262127290079306302313820Currentliabilities302443839347155456724581744665Short-termborrowings782155244340434043404340Accountpayables125082187424916234342357922427Othercurrentliabilities99151099517899178991789917899Non-currentliabilities65897102390127013147013152013147013Long-termborrowings526988367799456119456124456119456Othernon-currentliabilities131981871327557275572755727557Totalliabilities96141140783174168192685197830191678Sharecapital297815242952221522215222152221Retainedearnings120021766118984061804729949Otherreserves1309024804248042480424804Totalshareholdersequity4191370180770518526894909106812Minorityinterest4522788710908121261356315329Totalequityandliabilities142576218850262127290079306302313820PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE47Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation36115642715589321053412956Depreciationamortization39885190787799381086412174Changeinworkingcapital66239413249592032813388Others20401926508829537867Netcashfromoperations8976881816871129791865422609InvestingCapitalexpenditure254562990627731200902383526866Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments192822511608000Others6872740452000Netcashfrominvesting280723489729790200902383526866FinancingDividendpaid2610497349227168931053Netborrowings2233028682145952000050005000Others287913537600000Netcashfromfinancing1684137246102731928441076053NetchangeincashExchangedifference045000Others225511166264612173107510310Cashattheendoftheyear225511170264212173107510310GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue263368538205166154Grossprofit284386538184160164Operatingprofit280348560170161178EBITDA263329543205133155EBIT280348560170161178Netprofit272563268248179230PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin577584584574571576Operatingmargin518510518503500511EBITDAmargin871846849849825826ReturnonequityROE9010197110117128GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox070909131312Receivableturnoverdays398844994140400038003500Inventoryturnoverdays607482707070Payableturnoverdays9536123979181700060005000VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsDisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE57Sep2023anofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6