研究报告全文：MN4Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePingAn2318HK1H23NBVbeatconsensusinterimdividendup11YoYreinforcingalong-rungrowthstoryPingAndisclosed1H23resultswithNBV326YoY450restatedforpriorTargetPriceHK8030valueonbasisofcomparableEVassumptionsandmethoddrivenbynoticeableimprovementsachievedinLifeandHealthinsurancesegmenthandilybeatingPreviousTPHK8030consensusestimatesEventhoughtheGroupsOPATwasdownby50in1H23UpDownside710theinsurerraisedinterimdividendby11YoYtoRMB093pershareimplyingaCurrentPriceHK4695potentiallyhighercashdividendpayoutinfullyeartoabove288inFY22undernewstandardsvs295underoldstandardsWebelievetheLHsegmentwillChinaInsurancefurtherunlockgrowthpotentialgiven1theagencyreformhaspaidoffevidencedNikaMAbytheavgproductivityperagent943YoYin1H232PABsexclusivePrivate85239000805WealthAdviserPWAmodelgivingaccesstohigh-net-worthPBclientscontributingnikamacmbicomhkto4xofindustryaveragebancassurancemarginat197TheoutperformedagencyandbancassurancemixgeneratedrobustNBVgrowtheachatMiaoZHANG4301747YoYin1H233synergiestobesoughtwithintheGroupallowing85237618910distinctivecross-salesandup-salesopportunitiesandweexpectthemtocontinuezhangmiaocmbicomhktoprosperasthehealthcareandelderlycareserviceframeworkdeepensReiterateBUYStockDataStrongNBVin1H23beatingconsensusgivenoptimizedchannelmixPingMktCapHKmn932453AnachievedoutstandingresultsinLHinsuranceattributabletoanoptimizedAvg3mthstoHKmn144858channelmixThefirst-yearpremiumFYProseby496YoYtoRMB1139bn52wHighLowHK65103130givingrisetostrongNBVgrowthby326YoYrestated450YoYtoTotalIssuedSharesmn74480SourceFactSetRMB2596bnin1H23Given88risein1Q23NBVweseestrongmomentumsalesin2Q23transferringtoalike-for-likeNBVgrowthbymorethan75AsShareholdingStructuremarginwasslightlydowntolow-twenties1H23228webelievethesalesCharoenPokphandGroup150rallymorereferstoimprovementsinchannelmixratherthaninproductfrontUBSGroupAG105SourceHKExForonethe3-yearagencyreformfinallypaidoffshownas1monthlyavgagentproductivitymeasuredbyNBVincreasingtoRMB94kperagent947SharePerformanceYoY2agentincomefromlifepoliciesandcross-salesboostedby37YoYAbsoluteRelativeimplyingstrongindividualperformancesAgencyNBVresulted296YoY1-mth-124-75restated430YoYoutperformingpeersgivenTaiping966HKChinaLife3-mth-89-612628HKCPIC2601HKNCL1336HK224133133-52YoY6-mth-179-82respectivelyin1H23Agencymarginremainedresilientat30ForanotherSourceFactSetbancassurancestoodoutwithNBVmarginrisingto1974xofindustryaverageat5in1H23Thismarginhighlightcanbeseenasaresultof12-mthPricePerformanceexclusivePABchannelwith2000professionalstrainedinaPrivateWealthAdvisorPWAagencymodelwhomonaveragecangenerate18xNBVoveratop-leveldiamondagentThescaleandmarginupliftsgainedtractiontobancassuranceNBVgrowthInterimdividendraisedby11YoYdespiteanOPATdeclinePingAnGroupsOPATwasdownby5in1H23mainlyduetothenegativeOPATimpactsofAMCandTechnologysegmentseach-679-647YoYLHsOPAT-3YoYtoRMB5739bnwascausedby1alaggedeffectonCSMrelease-69YoYgiventheNBVfallsinpastthreeyears2one-offimpactsofincometaxandconsolidationforinvestmentsinsubsidiariesThesegmentsprofitbeforetaxwasupby19YoYtoRMB6562bnimplyingsustainableSourceFactSetoperatingprofitabilityGiventheGroupsdividendpolicylinkedtoOPATtheCompanyincreasedinterimdividendtoRMB093persharedespiteanOPATdeclineshowingthemanagementsoptimismoverlong-rungrowthtrajectoryEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENetprofitRMBmn10161883774129778152547171970EPSReportedRMB5848718394ConsensusEPSRMBnana718395VNBshareRMB2116192327Groupembeddedvalueshare7637798259161025RMBPBx1409080807PEmbeddedvaluex0606050504Dividendyield3959576776ROE129100144153156SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk4Sep2023HealthcareandelderlycareservicesshoreuppricingwithdifferentiationAsoneofthefirstmoversinindustryenteringtohealthcareandelderlycareservicesPingAnGroupisabletoconsolidateresourcesfromallassociatesandjointventurestocreatesynergiesforinternalconversionandcustomeracquisitionsBy1H23over68ofPingAnLifesNBVwasgeneratedbycustomersentitledtohealthcareservicesand30oftheGroupsnewretailcustomerswerefromthehealthcareecosystemsGoingforwardweseemorecross-salesandup-salesopportunitiestobeuntappedwithintheGroupandexpectsuchvalue-addedservicescanprotectmarginsfrombeingnarrowedamongindustrycompetitionValuationPingAnistradingat05xFY23EPEV08xFY23EPBrankingat214571-yr5-yrPEVhistoricalvaluationpercentileWebelievetheNBVbeatin1H23indicatesaturnaroundinPingAnsLHfundamentalsTheinterimdividendincreasereinforcedalong-rungrowthstoryasmoresynergiestobeunleashedMaintainBUYwithTPatHK803implied097xFY23EPEVRisks1productshiftsundertheregulatorychangemayrequire2-3monthtransitionperiod2elevatedonassetsandpropertyrisks3continuedeasingCN10YrTreasuryyieldsandsharper-than-expectedequityvolatilities24Sep2023PingAn1H23keymetricsoverviewPingAn2318HK1H23resultsatfirstglance1H231H22RestateYY2Q232Q22RestateYYProfitabilityNAVunderIFRS917Insurancerevenue2693052621272713619913178933LifeHealth113611117934-375681758821-34Non-PAA99029102023-29PAA1458215911-84PC15589914464778795877342284Auto1022759658959Non-autoexclAH4272336145182AccidentHealth1090111913-85Insuranceserviceexpenses2139102028655410795510284150LifeHealth6549166903-21Non-PAA5312853868-14PAA1236313035-52PC14833013604490OPATattributetoshareholders8195786282-504057243430-66LifeHealthinsurance5729559069-302913430314-39PCinsurance924286027447195502-142Bank147141280214962525354168AMC14124400-6791071821-941Technology17354909-64710422164-518Others24413499-3026821723-604NPATattributetoshareholders6984170725-123148944967-300LifeHealthinsurance4512143940272015031727-365PCinsurance924286027447195502-142Bank147141280214962525354168AMC14124400-6791071821-941Technology17934480-6009432286-587Others24413499-3026821723-604OperatingROEbysegment182212-30pctLifeHealthinsurance356412-56pctPCinsurance15215002pctBank12712205pctAMC2480-56pctTechnology3688-52pctPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE34Sep2023PingAnLifeHealth1H231H22RestateYY2Q232Q22RestateYYVNB2596019573326122586984755VNBrestated2596017903450AgencyVNB2130316434296AgencyVNBrestated2130314895430BancassuranceVNB282510601665BancassuranceVNBrestated282510281747GroupVNB156217-281GroupVNBrestated156202-228VNBmargin228257-29pct253280-27pctVNBmarginrestated228235-07pctAgencyVNBmargin293367-74pctAgencyVNBmarginrestated293333-40pctBancassuranceVNBmargin19716334pctBancassuranceVNBmarginrestated19715839pctGroupVNBmargin0813-05pctGroupVNBmarginrestated0812-04pctEVSolvencyratios1H232022YYLifeHealthEV92464787478657LHANW418469374080119LHVIFafterCoC50617850070611LHProfitabilityAnalysisContractservicemarginCSM817494869010-59NewbusinessCSMNBCSM2715724198122NewbusinessCSMmargin106110-05pctCSMBase856158910533-60CSMrelease3866541524-69CSMreleaserate909100pctRArelease3025294029RArelease434300pctLHInsuranceserviceresults4811550226-42LHInvestmentserviceresults1750014176234CROSS-IISolvencyratios2Q231Q23QQ1Q234Q22QQPingAnLifecoresolvencyratio1204120400pct12041241-37pctPingAnLifecomprehensivesolvencyratio21202128-08pct21282197-69pctPremiumsincomebreakdown1H231H22RestateYYFirst-yearpremiumsFYP11390176132496First-yearregularpremiumsFYRP7123755532283First-yearsinglepremiumsFYSP67627324041087asaofTotalFYP625729-104pctGrosswrittenpremiumsGWP379918328456157AnnualizedPremiumsEarnedAPE7800058772327PremiumincomebydistributionAgencyFYPinclSTinsurance7263944720624AgencyFYRP5918047332250asaofFYP8151058-244pctBancassuranceFYPinclSTinsurance1434264971207BancassuranceFYRP97435470781asaofFYP679842-163pctGroupOthersFYP1852616848100GroupOthersFYRP23142730-152asaofFYP125162-37pctPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE44Sep20231H231H22RestateYYAgencyAPE6336948535306BancassuranceAPE103115590844GroupothersAPE43204647-70PremiumincomebyproductParticipating3360139698-154Universal8070152604534Traditionallife9663364487498Long-termhealth5859561167-42Accidentshort-termhealth2396524913-38Annuity862528533011Investment-linked171257-335Protection-related179193150567190Premiumincomebyproductmix1H231H22RestateYYTraditionallifeasaoftotalGWP25419658pctLong-termhealthasaoftotalGWP154186-32pctAccidentSThealthasaoftotalGWP6376-13pctProtection-relatedasaoftotalGWP47245813pctOtheroperatingmetrics1Agentproductivity1H231H22RestateYYNooflifeinsuranceagentsmn037052-279Monthlyavgnoofagentsmn038051-263Activityrate541554-23AgentproductivityVNBperagent5628131958761AgentproductivityVNBperagentrestate56281289679432Lifepolicypersistencyratio13-monthpersistency93891721pct25-monthpersistency87680670pctPingAnPC1H231H22RestateYY2Q232Q22RestateYYUnderwritingcombinedratioCoR98097109pctLossratio70670303pctExpenseratio27426806pctPCunderwritingprofitsRMBmn30534197-273CoRbyproductAuto97194427pctGuarantee1177113047pctLiability9951021-26pctCommercialproperty890974-84pctHeatlh92392300pctPCpremiumincomebyproductAuto1013489550261Non-autoexclAH406403792372Guarantee21880Liability1421912397147Commercialproperty57650Agriculture55283611531Othersexclagriculture1294021916-410PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE54Sep2023AH2396524913-38Accident51168899-425Health70324468574TotalPCGWP15413614679250CROSS-IISolvencyratios2Q231Q23QQ1Q234Q22QQPingAnPCcoresolvencyratio1766171650pct17161776-60pctPingAnPCcomprehensivesolvencyratio2177211760pct21172200-83pctInvestmentperformance1H231H22RestateYY2Q232Q22RestateYYNetinvestmentyieldannualized3539-04pctTotalinvestmentyieldannualized343004pctComprehensiveyieldannualized413407pctPLinvestmentitemsNetinvestmentincomeRMBmn8521789778-51TotalinvestmentincomeRMBmn7963956231416ComprehensiveinvestmentincomeRMBmn10908673492484BSinvestmentitems1H232022YYTotalinvestmentassetsRMBmn4615762436840057Off-balancesheetdebtNSAdebt432413442793-23Off-balancesheetequityNSAequity7349550847445Realestateinvestments20939320456224MixbytypesCashequivalents6987-18pctBond56649967pctNSAdebtinvestments94108-14pctNSAequityinvestments160907pctRealestateinvestments4552-07pctMixbyfinancialassetsmeasurementFAatamortisedcostsAC13300133pctFAatfairvaluethroughothercomprehensiveincomeFVOCI56700567pctFAatfairvaluethroughplFVTPL22700227pctOthers730073pctPersharedata1H231H22RestateYYOperatingEPSannualized463494-63DPS09309211EVPS8167778949VNBPS142107326SOUPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE64Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnTotalincome132141812876751221351137222015009601645549Premiumswrittengross797880760843769633828426902489994604Premiumsearnednet757599739933742418796699868076957059Investmentincome225046203513127057201595226998247484Realizedgainslosses257109270871280916301506331042363588Otheroperatingincome816647335870960724207484477418Losses113365411480951115536117480812708001386836Selling614751618662631138678620728362792458Otherselling181166177061169840162113177185193673Underwritingcommissions11423790651803088601893703103039Otheroperatingexpense223500261721234250248058271550297666Operatingincomebeforeinterestexpense187764139580105815197411230160258713Pretaxincome187764139580105815197411230160258713Incometaxes28405177781617407114737653146Consolidatednetincome159359121802107432156700182784205567Minorityinterest162602018423658269223023733597Netincome14309910161883774129778152547171970BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnAssetsCashshort-termIinvestments5873915849957707518460069308901026706Investments267819284061280793308872339760373735Totalfixedincomesecuritiesinvestment413330042539404631969488982051703285475126Totalequitysecuritiesinvestment7958128782041006163106217411231061189315Realestateassets89671135799168420177491187258197768Mortgage376613095729278292782927829278Otherinvestments259951029809753238054372376242823264924675Premiumbalancereceivables167281142688120342136447154870175954Netproperty292738320954295559312012329911349360Defferedtaxassets61901653609284697488102363107481Intangibleassets642906846299411109352120287132316Otherassets430496395631403582464119533737613798Totalassets95278701014202611137168121568221330411414595512LiabilitiesshareholdersequityInsurancepolicyliabilities304004133341933641611408874545252345013319Insurancereserves199434122524722501090276836230544723366730Unearnedpremiums177041170420173742179379185509192235Policyclaims109943118926138393152232167456184201Otherinsuranceliabilities75445378822082476098460111130031264639STdebtcurrportionLTdebt397918939622214662451523931158889866620781Defferedtaxliabilities192671360514217149281567416458Otherliabilities150146817542841643591152094614519341377293Totalliabilities853996590643039961870108639291188182913027850Commonstockordinarycapital182801828018280182801828018280Retainedearnings522004569834595661680017779172890953Equityeeserves222276224291244734251051251051251051Totalshareholdersequity76256081240585867594934810485031160284Minorityinterest225345265318316623343545373782407378Totalequity98790510777231175298129289314222851567662Totalliabilitiesshareholdersequity95278701014202611137168121568221330411414595512PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE74Sep2023PERSHAREDATA2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecDPS227245251248292329EPSReported810577480710834941GroupembeddedvalueshareHK7265763477898251915910249VNBshareHK271207158198229266Noofsharesbasic182801828018280182801828018280PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecReturnonequityROE199129100144153156ReturnonassetROA161008111212ReturnonlifeembeddedValue74372182246264180VNBmarginFYPAPEbasis476372321320320320Combinedratio992976997971970969Lossratio605671698703703703Expenseratio386305298268267266VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEV060606050504PB181409080807Divyield525658576776SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE84Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE9