研究报告全文：MN4Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAkeso9926HKLookforwardtoPh3datareadoutofAK104andAK112inlargeindicationsIn1H23AkesorecordedRMB368bnrevenueincludingRMB795mnfromsalesTargetPriceHK5123ofAK104PD-1CTLA-4andAK105PD-1andRMB292bnfromlicenseincomePreviousTPHK5265relevanttoAK112PD-1VEGFAK104achievedRMB606mnsalesin1H23UpDownside487totallingRMB115bninthepast12monthswhichbeattheCompanysRMB1bnCurrentPriceHK3445targetduringthefirst12monthsafterlaunchAkesomaintainedahighproductGPmarginat903in1H23comparedto915in2H22OverallsellingChinaHealthcareexpensesincldistributioncostasofproductsalesdecreasedfrom669inJillWUCFA2H22to603in1H23In1H23AkesorecordedRMB575mnRDexpensesvs85239000842RMB728mnin2H22AkesorecordedRMB253bnattributablenetprofitin1H23jillwucmbicomhkExcludingthelicenseincomeandequityinvestmentlosstheoperatingnetlossAndyWANGshrankby63YoYtoRMB256mnin1H23comparedtoRMB692mnin1H2285236576288AsofJun2023AkesohadasufficientcashbalanceofRMB539bnandywangcmbicomhkSmoothRDprogressofAK104inlargeindicationsThesalesofAK104mightbetemporarilyimpactedin2H23duetoachallengingenvironmentinStockDataChinawhilewebelieveAK104willunleashitsblockbusterpotentialifMktCapHKmn289744Avg3mthstoHKmn1820approvedformultiplelargeindicationsBesidestheapprovedindicationof23L52wHighLowHK51002030CCAK104isinPh3trialsfor1LCC1LGCadjuvantHCCand1LPD-L1-TotalIssuedSharesmn8411negativeNSCLCFor1LGCthepatientenrolmentwascompletedinAugSourceFactSet2023andweexpectthedatareadoutinlate2023orearly2024For1LCCShareholdingStructurethePh3studywasfullyenrolledinJun2022andweexpectthedatareadoutYuXia127in1H24InadditionAkesoexpectsthemanufacturingfacilityexpansiontobeBaiyongLi65approvedin3Q23whichwillremovetheproductionbottleneckforAK104andSourceBloombergAK105SharePerformanceNear-termcommercializationofAK112AkesofiledtheNDAofAK112inAbsoluteRelativeAug2023forEGFR-mTKI-failednsq-NSCLCwithpriorityreviewstatus1-mth-188-1153-mth-27-36grantedbyNMPABycombiningtheChinastudySummitisconductingaPh36-mth-170-69rdMRCTofAK112chemoforEGFR-mutated3TKIfailednsq-NSCLCwithSourceFactSetthefirstUSpatientdosedinMay2023andmaycompleteenrolmentin1H2412-mthPricePerformanceInChinatheH2HPh3studyofAK112monovsKeytrudaforPD-L1NSCLChascompletedenrolmentinAug2023withdatareadoutexpectedinearly2024InaPh2studyforPD-L1patientsAK112monoachieved101monthsofmPFSvsKeytrudas56monthsKEYNOTE-042linkandforPD-L150patientsAK112reached139monthsmPFSascomparedtoKeytrudas65monthsKEYNOTE-042or103monthsKEYNOTE-024linkThecross-trialcomparisonsindicatethepotentialofAK112toachievePFSsuperiorityvsKeytrudaAdditionallytobeat1LSoCAkesoinitiatedaPh3SourceFactSetstudyassessingAK112chemovstislelizumabchemofor1Lsq-NSCLCwithFPIinAug2023SummitalsorecentlyinitiatedaPh3MRCTevaluatingAK112chemovsKeytrudachemoin1Lsq-NSCLCwithFPItohappenaroundcornerInadditionAK112observedencouragingearlyefficacysignalsinadjuvantNSCLC1LbiliarytractcancerpancreaticcancerHCCTBCBCRCetcMaintainBUYWeseeblockbusterpotentialinAK104andAK112Akesosnon-oncologybusinessisnearcommercializationwithNDAsofPCSK9andIL1223underreviewWerevisedourTPfromHK5265toHK5123basedonaDCFmodelWACC1164terminalgrowthrate30EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn226838435728744234YoYgrowthna27134201340473NetprofitRMBmn107511681754418570EPSReportedRMB132142209050068RDexpensesRMBmn11231323150016501815AdminexpensesRMBmn244199205294439SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk4Sep2023Figure1Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EEBIT16894625681645279140945297638471057323751474767278Taxrate00015151515151515151515EBIT1-taxrate16894625681399237234804502542660406225638763556186DA120128132131130129128127126126125124124-Changeinworkingcapital1248331633426725718323120211216256265-Capex500300200100100100100100100100100100100FCFF14337169531095213532524348543061866462662866356475Terminalvalue78831FCFTerminalvalue143371695310952135325243485430618664626628663585306PresentvalueofenterpriseRMBmn37127NetdebtRMBmn1481Non-controllinginterestsRMBmn168EquityvalueRMBmn38776Noofsharesmn841DCFpersharesRMB4610DCFpersharesHK5123Terminalgrowthrate30WACC1146CostofEquity146CostofDebt50EquityBeta11RiskFreeRate30MarketRiskPremium105TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2SensitivityanalysisHKWACCTerminalgrowthrate1046109611461196124640655559835491506446893562665747529549004551306017554051234754442825579953584969462443172056065196483245074216SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue435728744234449630124435-3-5-5Grossprofit42102580357642012500367303-3Operatingprofit16894625681644759802NANANANetprofit17544185701522696812NANANAEPSRMB209050068181083097NANANAGrossmargin966389768446934582998283318ppt676ppt163pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue435728744234483430274752-10-5-11Grossprofit421025803576451626314140-7-2-14Operatingprofit16894625682161385546NANANANetprofit17544185701846357480NANANAEPSRMB209050068225045063NANANAGrossmargin966389768446934286918712321ppt285ppt-266pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE24Sep2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue0226838435728744234Costofgoodssold03194147294658Grossprofit0194744421025803576Operatingexpenses131314422122246129924110Sellingexpense017955380612472041Adminexpense253244199205294439RDexpense76911231323150016501815Others2911034850199184Operatingprofit1354127114061689462568NetInterestincomeexpense81043756666Pre-taxprofit1321125814221674478600Incometax000000Aftertaxprofit1321125814221674478600Minorityinterest144183254806030Netprofit1177107511681754418570BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets300131523058436438763444Cashequivalents268426422092336024781344Accountreceivables0102271311526947Inventories61197342339520801Prepayment144212157157157157FinancialassetsatFVTPL1100196196196196Othercurrentassets200000Non-currentassets85516542437281829903058PPE60813532000239025722650Right-of-useassets151152163153143133Intangibles148888FinancialassetsatFVTPL0010101010Othernon-currentassets94145256256256256Totalassets385648065496718268666502Currentliabilities1706561361137315351772Short-termborrowings1446446446446446Accountpayables113206309321483720Othercurrentliabilities41396600600600600Leaseliabilities386666Non-currentliabilities2368701587158715871587Long-termborrowings1798041421142114211421Deferredincome5364160160160160Othernon-currentliabilities426666Totalliabilities40615262948296031223358Sharecapital000000Otherreserves318531642636439039713402Totalshareholdersequity318631642636439039723402Minorityinterest26511688168228258Totalequityandliabilities385648065496718268666502PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE34Sep2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation1321125814221674478600Depreciationamortization2258106120128132Taxpaid000000Changeinworkingcapital11076012483316Others6829216758484Netcashfromoperations618100112401843517868InvestingCapitalexpenditure444712776500300200Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term109120200000investmentsOthers31286000Netcashfrominvesting556580890500300200FinancingDividendpaid000000Netborrowings376451005000Proceedsfromshareissues2636978495000Sharerepurchases0520000Others2061515756666Netcashfromfinancing287815871486756666NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear118626842642209233602478Exchangedifference2064995000Cashattheendoftheyear268426422092336024781344GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenuenana27134201340473Grossprofitnana28254663387386PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmarginna861888966898845Operatingmarginna56311679388161134ReturnonequityROE740339403499100155GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox1774822322519VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEnanana154nanaPB4610266647286SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE44Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5