>> 招银国际-China Property Sector–Will the newly-released demand hold on？-230905
| 上传日期： |
2023/9/5 |
大小： |
607KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共3页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：5Sep2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorOUTPERFORMWillthenewly-releaseddemandholdonMaintainzBothprimaryandsecondarymarketreactedstronglytothenewpolicy认房不ChinaPropertySector认贷duringtheweekendProjectvisitorsandtransactionsfornewhomeinBJSHshowedarallyand2nd-handhouselistingvolumewasboostedbycash-MiaoZHANGoutdemandandsell-to-buydemandWethinkitishardfornewly-released85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhkdemandtoholdonanditmightbeabletosupportthenewhomerecoveryfor1-3monthsinourviewaspartofthedemandisrelyingonthetransactionofNikaMAexistingmarketandislikelytobecurbedby2nd-handhousingpricewhichwill85239000805keepunderpressureinourviewduetothereasonweillustratedbelownikamacmbicomhkHoweverwesawregulatorsdeterminationtostabilizethepropertymarketthroughthenewpolicyandwemayexpectmoreeasingpoliciesbeforetheendoftheyearifthesalescontinuetoweakenForstockswecontinuetolikebrokerageBEKEPMCRMixCCOPHPolyServicesOnewoYuexiuServicesDevelopersCRLandYuexiuPropertyWhoarebenefitingAsshownintableonP2thenewpolicy认房不认贷intier-1citiesreleasesthepurchasingdemandfrompeoplewhousedtoownonehousebutalreadybeensoldD1andpeoplewhoownoneandonlyonehousethatwishtoreplacetheexistingonewithnewoneD2Thesetwokindsofbuyersarenowbeingtreatedasthefirsttimebuyerandenjoylowerdown-paymentratioandmortgagerateHowthemarketreactsAccordingtoourchannelcheckfornewhomemarketbothprojectvisitorflowandtransactionsizzledinBJandSHduringthepastweekendwhileSZandGZsawlittlechangeduetotyphoonIntier-2citiesTianjinandChangshasawactivetransactionaftertheirfollow-uppoliciesothercitiessawlittlechangeForsecondarymarketmorelistingsarecomingfromcash-outdemandandsell-to-buydemandD2Indisctrictswherehomepricefelllessbeforethepolicysomeownersre-listtheirhouseswhentheirneighboursliftpriceaftertheeasingpolicyCash-outdemandishigherthansell-to-buydemandinthesedistrictsIndistrictswithlargerpricedeclinecash-outdemandislessasthepricestillresultsinlossesforhomeownersWhatisnextConsideringthebackgroundthatresidentsincomeexpectationshavenotyetrecovereddeliveryqualityofnewhomeisstillanissuethatbeingoftenmentionedinthenewsandmanydevelopersarestillstrugglingontheedgeofdefaultWethinktheeffectfromnewpolicymaybelimitedasshowninFigure21thereiscertainamountofD1andislikelytoboostnewhomesalesfor1-2monthsinourview2D2fornewhomewillbegraduallyreleasedfromexistinghometransactionandtheamountwillbeinadownwardtrendas2nd-handhousingpricewillremainunderpressuregiven1ownerswithcash-outneedsmayeventuallylowertheirpricesasthelistingvolumeisincreasinganditisagoodwindowtoleavethemarket2ownerswithsell-to-buyneedsmaycutpricetoselltheoldonequickerThepricecutmayboostexistinghometransactioninshorttermbutwillsoonstimulatewatch-and-seesentimentinbuyersanddelaytheirpurchasedecisionsandthusthelowertransactionleadstolessD2Assuchwethinkthenewpolicymaysupporttherecoveryofnewhomesalesfor1-3monthsThroughthepolicyweseethedeterminationofregulatorstostabilizethepropertymarketandhenceweexpectmoreeasingpoliciesbeforetheendoftheyearifthedemandcannotsustainPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk5Sep2023Figure1Newly-releaseddemandfromthenewpolicy认房不认贷StatusBeforethenewpolicyAfterthenewpolicyD1Owned1houseandsoldwithmortgagerecord2ndtimebuyerqualifiedas1sttimebuyerD2Owns1andonly1hosuewithmortgagerecord2ndtimebuyerqualifiedas1sttimebuyeraftersoldtheexistingoneSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2NewlypolicymayhavelimitedeffectinourviewBuynewhomeCertainamountthatwillsupportthesalesrecoveryfor1-2monthsinourD1viewBuyexistinghometransactionsCash-outneedsSellexistinghomenopurchasedemandGraduallyreleasedfromexistinghomeBuynewhometransactionbutpurchasedemandwillD2Sellexistinghomedeclineas2nd-handhousepriceisBuyexistinghomeunderpressuretransactionsSourceCMBIGMFigure3Newhomesalesin30majorcitieswentup13WoWasof3SepSourceCMBIGMFigure4Secondaryhomesalesin8citieswentdown8WoWasof3SepSourceCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE25Sep2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
|
|
