研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary4Sep2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Benchmarkhigh-betaTMTswere3-5bps10-20bpstighterHRINTHsrose1-GlennKoCFA高志和15ptsandCCAMCLstightened3-5bpsChinaPropertieswerefirmpostnew85236576235policiesFUTLANsFTLHNDsmoved5-75ptshigherLNGFORwereup15-glennkocmbicomhk25ptsandCHJMAO4875Perpwere45ptshigherSeebelowforcommentsontherelaxationpoliciesNWDNWSMaintainingthelistingstatusofNWSshouldnotbeasurpriseCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩NWDEVLsgainedanother35-375ptsandNWSZFswereup075ptthis85239000801morningSeebelowcyrenangcmbicomhkMacaugamingGGRrecoverycontinuedtoaccelerateinAug23SeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkLastFridaytheflowswereextremelythinbecauseofthetyphoonsignalNo8signalinHKandthepresidentialelectionholidayinSGInfinancialsAMCswereunderbetterbuyingHRINTH24s25s26s27s29sweretraded1-25ptshigheracrossthecurveCCAMCLcurvetightened3-5bpsChineseIGbenchmarkswerestableTMTssuchasBABATENCNTpaperswere1-2bpstighterThelong-endofSOEssuchasSINOPECNOOCpaperswerebetter-soldHKIGssuchasHKLSP33stightenedanother5bpsHKCorpspaceremainedstrongNWDEVLperpsweretradedup25-45ptstoclose8-10ptshigherWoWNWSZF27Perpwereup05-25ptsHYSAN41PerpNANFUN5Perpwerequoted05-1pthigherHKChinesepropertiesperformedstronglyPBOCandNAFRannouncedtolowermortgagedown-paymentratiosforhomebuyersandencouragedbankstocutratesfornewandexistingmortgageloansSeebelowforcommentsFUTLANsFTLNHDsjumpedanother525-725ptstoclose15-20ptshigherWoWSHUION24-26sgainedanother225-625ptsHPDLFYLLGSP23-26swereup2-25ptsLNGFORVNKRLEsweretraded225-475ptshigherDALWANsROADKGsCHINSCsGRNCHsweretradedup15-35ptsAGILEsGRNLGRswerearound05higherHoweverCOGARD24swereamongtheexceptionstobemarkeddown05ptatlow-teensPINGRE26sweremarked3ptslowerathigh-60sInindustrialsFOSUNIsweretraded225-475ptshigherWESCHICHIOIL26swerebidup075-1ptMacaugamingnamessuchasMPELsSTCITYsWYNMACswerequoted05-075pthigherInIndianspaceVEDLNswereindicated05-075pthigherIndonesianenergynamesLPKRIJABMMIJ26sweretraded075ptlowerLGFVswerelargelystablewithlightflowsCPDEV25s26swerequoted06-08pthigherBEIENTswerebetter-offeredThehigh-yieldingLGFVpapersremainedsought-afterWFURCDGSHIAV24swereup01ptKMRLGP24wasmarked08pthigherChongqingShandongnamesperformedmixedCQNANA49825wasbidup03ptCQLGSTSHDOIS24sweremarked01-015pthigherWhilstontheotherhandSHUGRP24sSHGUOH26sPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk14Sep2023werequoted015-02ptlowerFRESHK26sZHONAN25sweremarked05-075pthigherLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeFTLNHD4812152446872PINGRE345072926680-30FTLNHD45810152537369SINOPE414041247837-13FTLNHD41205022634367SINOPE4091347803-13SHUION51203032559562SINOPE335051350702-13FUTLAN608122458858BEIENT499121740893-12MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP018Dow033andNasdaq-002weremixedonlastFridayUSAugNFPwas187krosefrom157kinJulandwashigherthanexpectationof170kUSMarkitAugmanufacturingPMIwas479higherthantheexpectationof470ChinaCaixinAugmanufacturingPMIwas51andhigherthantheexpectationof493UStreasuryyieldsralliedhigheronFriday251030yieldreachedat487429418429respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点NWDNWSMaintainingthelistingstatusofNWSshouldnotbeasurpriseRegardingCTFsintentiontomaintainthelistingstatusofNWSthisshouldnotbeasurpriseas1CTFsacquisitionofthestakesinNWSsisconductedthroughageneralofferinsteadofaprivatizationschemeTheNWSofferaswediscussedinourcommentson27Jun23iseffectivelyforCTFtoprovideliquiditysupporttoNWDThenetproceedsafterspecialdividendtoNWDwillbecUSD23bnPrivatizationofNWSisnottheobjectiveandpriorityfortheNWSofferIndeedwebelievethattheChengfamilywouldliketokeepthelistingstatusofNWSasaseparatefundingplatform2MediareportedthatCTFsecuredHKD26bnbridgeloanfortheNWSofferfromBOCHSBCandINGTheloanisequivalenttoonlyc73ofthemaximumconsiderationtoacquireallthenon-concertedpartiesstakesTheloansizeinourviewrevealedCTFsintentiontomaintainthelistingstatusofNWSandaminimumfree-floatof25WeunderstandtheNWSofferisstillintheprocessoffulfillingthepre-conditionswhicharemainlyregulatoryapprovalandbankconsentsfortheNWSofferAfterthepre-conditionsaresatisfiedthenextmajorhurdlewillbeanEGMapprovalatNWDThiswillrequiretheapprovalofamajorityofnon-concertedshareholdersofNWDforthesalesofNWDs61stakesinNWStoCTFThelongstopdateoftheNWSofferis26Dec23NWDhasrecentlydeniedthetalksofsecuredfinancingatdouble-digityieldBetweenMarandJun23thecompanyhassecuredHKD30bnfinancingatfundingcostsofHIBOR11includingHKD8bnnewloansAdditionallyitraisedRMB1bnCMBSinApr23atacouponrateof35NWDcontinuestoaccessfundingatreasonablecostsWepreferperpswithresetandcouponstep-upwithinNWDEVLNWSZFcomplexfortheyieldpick-upandmaintainBuyonNWDEVL4125PerpNWDEVL615PerpNWDEVL525PerpandNWSZF575PerpNWDEVLPerpsNWSZFPerpgained3-13ptsoverthelastweekNWDEVLsgainedanother35-375ptsandNWSZFswereup075ptthismorning24Sep2023AskPriceAskYTCCalldateCouponresetStep-upbpsNWDEVL4125Perp4913227331020285yrUST5858300NWDEVL615Perp74532770031620253yrUST6201300NWDEVL525Perp64532488032220265yrUST7889300NWSZF575Perp96001631013120245yrUST8205500SourceBloombergChinaPropertiesSOEsanddevelopersfocusinginT12tobenefitmorefromthelateststimulusChinasregulatorsincludingthehousingministrycentralbankandfinancialregulatorarereportedtoimplementnewmeasurestoaddressthepropertydeveloperscrisisundertheguidanceofStateCouncilTheproposedmeasuresincluderelaxationofhomepurchaserestrictionssuchasonunqualifiednon-residentandonthenumberofpropertiesanindividualcanbuyinnon-coredistrictsinBeijingShanghaiandShenzhenSeveralrelaxationwereintroducedinpasttwoweeksCentralbankandfinancialregulatorreducedthedownpaymentratiotonolowerthan2030forfirstsecondhomebuyerrespectivelyBeijingShanghaiSuzhouandsomeothercitiescategorizebuyerswithmortgagerecordsbutnolocalhomeownershipasfirst-homebuyerInadditionGuangzhouandShenzhenstarttoallowhomebuyerstoenjoypreferentialloansforfirst-homepurchasesregardlessofcreditrecordsThesestimulustargettofurtherboostthepropertydemandandtheseareviewedasmoreeffectivemeasuresthanpreviouspoliciesWeexpectstate-owneddevelopersanddevelopersfocusingonT12citiestobenefitmorefromthesestimulusHomebuyersconfidenceinnon-statedowneddevelopersisstillweakinourviewduetotheconcernsofunfinishedprojectsFor7M23Yuexiurecorded68yoygrowthcomparedto7M22rankedthe1stintermsofsalesgrowthratesamong35developersunderourradarWecontinuetolikenonstate-owneddevelopersfocusingonT12citiessuchasHopsonLongforSeazenandYanlordMacaugamingGGRrecoverycontinuedtoaccelerateinAug23CumulativeCumulativeGGRCumulativeGGRGGRMOPmn2022202320232023growthrate2023of2019Jan63441158011580626464Feb77591032421904484435Mar36721273834642949455Apr267714722493641414495May334115565649291729517Jun247715207801362050536Jul39816662967982630556Aug2189172131140112951575SourceMacauDSECInAug23thegrossgamingrevenueGGRinMacaurose686toMOP172bnThecumulativeGGRin8M23rose2951toMOP1140bnandwasc575ofpre-pandemiclevelin8M19increasedfromc556inJul23ThegrowthrateofcumulativeGGRcontinuedtoaccelerateSupportedbytourismandGGRreboundthegamingoperatorscreditprofileshadnotablyimprovedwithalloperatorsturnedpositiveadjEBITDAin1H23AsdiscussedbeforewesawsplitrecoverypathsofdifferentsectorsinChinatheslowingrecoverypaceoflarge-ticketdurableconsumptionsbutsolidrecoveryforsmall-ticketandfrequentconsumptionslikegamingFBandcarrentalWestillliketheMacaugamingbondsgiventhesectorsimprovingcreditstoriesandcontainedcapexdespitethelessattractivevaluationWecontinuetopreferMPELSJMandSTCITYSTDCTYforbetterrisk-returnprofilesWealsoseeWYNMACsyieldpick-upplaysoverthebondsofitsUSparents34Sep2023AskYTMModDurationAskPriceMGMCHI673-77607-309114-9909MPEL768-86112-508462-9548SANLTD659-70018-668076-9728SJMHOL962-100522-378188-8929STCITYSTDCTY854-109517-447647-9549WYNMAC313-86910-518304-9797SourceBloombergOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFHongKongMortgageCorpUSD-5yr-Aa3AA-NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere96creditbondsissuedlastFridaywithanamountofRMB65bnAsforMonth-to-date96creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB65bnraisedrepresentinga563yoydecreaseMediareportedthatChinasmajorbanksincludingICBCBOCandABCmadecoordinatedcutindepositratesforthethirdtimeinayearCOGARDMediareportedthatCountryGardenhasreceivedsufficientapprovalfromitscreditorstoextendpaymentsoftheRMB39bnUSD540mnonshoreprivatenotes16Biyuan05overthreeyearsthecompanytransferredaMYR285mncouponpaymenton57due2027notesDALWANSPwithdrewDalianWandaCommercialCCCratingsatcompanysrequestFUTLANSeazenwasdissuadingCMBSholdersfromexercisingNovemberputGEELYGeelyAugsalesvolumeclimbed24yoyto1182kNIONIOAugsalesincreased81yoyto193kSOFTBKMediareportedthatSoftBank-ownedArmtargetingUSD50-55bnvaluationaheadofUSIPOVENTVNETsCFRwasdowngradedtoCaa1byMoodysFixedIncomeDepartment44Sep2023Tel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5