>> 招银国际-China Economy – PMI indicates continuous economic recovery-230331
| 上传日期： |
2023/3/31 |
大小： |
512KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共4页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：31Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyPMIindicatescontinuouseconomicrecoveryChinasPMIindicatesmanufacturingsectorcontinuedtoexpandwithslowingBingnanYEPhDrecoverypacewhileserviceactivityfurtherreboundedthankstocontinuous85237618967improvementofpopulationmobilityandoutgoingactivityChinasreflationyebingnancmbicomhkpressurewaslowasex-factorypriceindexremainedbelow50ThecountryKevinZhangcouldmaintainaccommodativecreditpolicytosupportthegrowthTherecent85253364682RRRcutbythePBOCindicatesitseasingbiasforliquidityandcreditpolicyNewkevinzhangcmbicomhkexportorderindexdeclinedasexportsmayhaveremainedweakTherecentoverseasbankingsectorturmoilwouldhurtconsumerconfidenceandcredit70indexsupplyexpansionasweexpectexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising657in2022605550Manufacturingsectorcontinuedtoexpandwithslowingpacewhile4540serviceactivityfurtherrecoveredChinasPMIinmanufacturingdroppedto35519inMarchfrom526inFebruaryyetremainedintheexpansionary30territoryMeanwhileneworderindexandbusinessexpectationindexin25manufacturingrespectivelydeclinedfrom541and575to536and555indicatingaprobableslowdownofrecoveryinmanufacturingManufacturingPMIConstructionPMIServicePMIindustriesamidexportsslumpandprofitsqueezeForservicesectorPMIandSourceNBSCMBIGMneworderindexfurtherreboundedfrom556and547inFebruaryto569and585inMarchaspopulationmobilityoutgoingactivityandsocialindex55activitycontinuedtorecoverBysectorPMIinretailsalesrailwaytransport5351airtransportinternetbankingandbusinessservicereachedabove6049indicatingstrongsentimentinthosesectorsPMIinconstructionrosefrom4745602inFebruaryto656inMarchthankstostronginfrastructure43investmentandimprovementofpropertydevelopmentinvestment413937Reflationpressurewaslowasex-factorypriceindexfurtherdeclined35Theex-factorypriceindexinmanufacturingconstructionandservicesectors20192020202120222023PMIoflargeenterprisesrespectivelydroppedto486509and473inMarchfrom512536PMIofmediumenterprisesand504inFebruaryrespectivelyRawmaterialpurchasepriceinthosePMIofsmallenterprisesSourceNBSCMBIGMsectorsalsodeclinedinMarchindicatingcostreliefExportsmayhaveremainedweakNewexportorderindexdroppedfrom524inFebruaryto504inMarchTherecentoverseasbankingsectorturmoilwillhurtconsumerconfidenceandcreditgrowthwithadditionaldownsidepressureonglobaleconomyChinaexportsmayremainweakintheshorttermWeexpectChinaexportsofgoodstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022EmploymentwasnotstrongasSMEsremainedcautiousoncapexexpansionEmploymentindexinmanufacturingdroppedfrom502inFebruaryto497inMarchasthemanufacturingupgradetowardshigherlabourproductivityindicateslesslabordemandEmploymentindexinserviceremainedbelow50inMarchasSMEswerestillcautioustoexpandcapexInMarchPMIinsmallenterpriseswas504muchlowerthan536forlargeenterprisesToboostemploymentChinahastorestoretheconfidenceofprivateandsmallmediumbusinessesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Mar2023Figure1NewOrderIndexFigure2BusinessSentimentIndexINDEXindex706560655560505545405035453025402019202020212022202320192020202120222023ManufacturingNon-ManufacturingServiceManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure3ExportOrderIndexandImportIndexFigure4InventoryIndex53indexindex554850434540383533302019202020212022202328Inventoryofproducts20192020202120222023InventoryofmaterialsExportorderindexImportindexPurchasevolumeofmaterialsSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure5MaterialPurchasePriceIndexFigure6Ex-factoryPriceIndexindex65index757060656055555045504035453025402019202020212022202320192020202120222023ManufacturingConstructionServiceSteelManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Mar2023Figure7ManufacturingOutputIndexFigure8ServicePMIOutputIndexSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure9CompositeOutputIndexFigure10EmploymentIndexindexYoYindex60860655554250500452404546354082018201920202021202220233020192020202120222023CompositeoutputindexLHSGDPYoYRHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure11SupplyDeliveryIndex55index504540353020192020202120222023SupplydeliveryindexinmanufacturingSupplydeliveryindexinserviceSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
|
|
