研究报告全文：MN31Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateTigermed300347CHTargetingthebroadglobalmarketTargetPriceRMB13424Tigermedreported2022revenueattributablenetincomeattributablerecurringnetPreviousTPRMB14743incomeofRMB7085mnRMB2007mnRMB1540mn359YoY-302YoYUpDownside325250YoYRevenuewaslargelyinlinewithourforecastwhileattributableCurrentPriceRMB10150recurringnetincomemissedourforecastby89Thedeclineofattributablenetincomein2022wasmainlyduetothedecreasedfairvaluegainsfromChinaHealthcareRMB1815mnin2021toRMB536mnin2022GrossprofitmarginGPMJillWUCFAdeterioratedby39pptto396in2022duetotherevenuerecognitionfrom85239000842low-marginCOVID-19relatedrevenueincludingpass-throughrevenuetojillwucmbicomhkoverseassub-contractorsaswellastheCOVIDpandemicinChinaNewordersamountedtoRMB97bnin2022flattishvs2021whilenon-COVID-19relatedBenchenHUANGCFAhuangbenchencmbicomhknewordersincreasedbyc25YoYin2022demonstratingarobustgrowthofthecorebusinessTotalbacklogreachedRMB138bn229YoYbytheendStockDataof2022asolidguaranteeforsustainablegrowthMktCapRMBmn885504Avg3mthstoRMBmn1127AcceleratingglobalizationTigermedhasutilizedCOVID-19pandemicas52wHighLowRMB127457840anopportunitytoaccessandexpandoverseasmarketsTheCompanyTotalIssuedSharesmn8724enabled4COVID-19vaccineEUAsinChinaandoverseasin2022InSourceFactSetadditionTigermedacquiredaCroatia-basedclinicalCROMartiFarminShareholdingStructureJan2023furtherenhancingitsservicecapabilityinEuropeTheHKinvestors239managementindicatedthattheCompanywillintegrateBDteaminEuropeXiaopingYe203toenhanceBDefficiencyin2023IntheUSTigmerdhadcollaborationsSourceHKExwithover100clinicalsitesWithitsgrowingglobalnetworkandgoodtrackSharePerformancerecordTigermedhaswonmorechancestoparticipateinMRCTprojectsAbsoluteRelativeAsofDec2022theCompanyhad62MRCTprojectsinthepipeline1-mth-121-116comparedwithonly20asofDec2020Tigermedalsotakesaproactive3-mth-31-83approachtoexplorebusinessopportunitiesinSoutheastAsiaandLatin6-mth11332SourceFactSetAmericaSuchregionsarepotentialendmarketsforChinesedrugdeveloperswhichwillcreateadditionaldemandforTigermedinoverseas12-mthPricePerformancemarketTofuelitsglobalexpansionTigermedadded400employeesinoverseasregionsrepresenting44ofthetotalnewhiringin2022AdoptingnewtechnologiestoenhanceworkefficiencyTigermedestablishedTigermedDigitalPromotionCenterandDecentralizedClinicalTrialDCTSolutionTeamDCTplatformusesnewtechnologiestoperformcriticalclinicaltrialrelatedproceduressuchasparticipantenrolmentengagementsitemanagementdataaggregationqualitycostbalanceandSourceFactSetstudyservicesDCTplatformalreadyusedincertainprojectswillreducepatientburdenandimproveclinicalserviceefficiencyWethinkthelaunchofDCTplatformwillhelpTigermedtokeepupwithleadingforeignpeersregardingservicedigitalizationandworkefficiencyMaintainBUYWerevisedourTPfromRMB14743toRMB13424basedona10-yearDCFmodelWACC106terminalgrowthrate30tofactorinslowerrevenuegrowthprojectionWeforecastTigermedsrevenuetogrow202625YoYandattributablerecurringnetincometogrow292726YoYinFY23E24E25ErespectivelyEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn5214708584991070513385YoYgrowth633359199260250AdjustednetprofitRMBmn12321540198225123172EPSAdjustedRMB142178227288364ConsensusEPSRMBnana357448451AdjustedPEx716571447353279Netgearing444294250227228SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue84991070513385922811719na-790-865naGrossProfit37324731595641775396na-1065-1232naOperatingProfit25253212405628943790na-1273-1526naRecurringnetprofit19822512317223693101na-1634-1898naRecurringEPSRMB227288364272355na-1634-1898naGrossMargin43914420445046484605na-257ppt-185pptnaOperatingMargin29713000303029003234na072ppt-234pptnaNetMargin23322347237026472646na-315ppt-299pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue8499107051338590681142714141-628-632-534GrossProfit373247315956411852536362-938-993-639OperatingProfit252532124056333041714092-2416-2300-088Recurringnetprofit198225123172322039824032-3846-3691-2133RecurringEPSRMB227288364357448451-3635-3571-1938GrossMargin439144204450454145974499-151ppt-177ppt-050pptOperatingMargin297130003030367236502894-701ppt-650ppt137pptNetMargin233223472370355134852851-1219ppt-1138ppt-482pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Valuationonrisk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRmbmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT312439104854631181411042013234166742084325845Taxrate1213121312131213121312131213121312131213EBIT1-taxrate27453436426555457153915611628146511831422710DA2663023344004775626587638781001-Changeinworkingcapital103261317380453534625725834950-Capex2150205019502340278532873845446051305848FCFF757142623323225439258987816102291322916912Terminalvalue229093Terminalgrowthrate300WACC1060CostofEquity1403CostofDebt500EquityBeta105RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1050TargetDebttoAssetratio3500EffectiveCorporateTaxRate1500TerminalvalueRMBmn83620TotalPVRMBmn115165NetdebtRMBmn5368EquityvalueRMBmn3421MinorityRMBmn117112ofsharesmn872PricepershareRMBpershare13424SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue31925214708584991070513385Costofgoodssold167829434277476759747429Grossprofit151422712808373247315956Operatingexpenses6559111038120615201900Sellingexpense97129150176221276Adminexpense3915476307309201150RDexpense157212235273344430Others112323283543Operatingprofit85913591771252532124056GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL11381815536498598698Investmentgainloss284312103100100100NetInterestincomeexpense88216158283551Otherincomeexpense261918000Pre-taxprofit221936852585315239454905Incometax190293314382479595Aftertaxprofit202933922272276934664310Minorityinterest279518265323405503Netprofit175028742007244630623807Adjustednetprofit70812321540198225123172Grossdividends262433476580726903BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets116461085211107102711009310621Cashequivalents1012485447858696164946670Accountreceivables4968161034110913971747Inventories56227810Prepayment285959595959Othercurrentassets99414262134213421342134Non-currentassets78601288916339188222126923684PPE30043856693912771582Deferredincometax80101121121121121InvestmentinJVsassos607391800180018001800Intangibles142251338274209144Goodwill144517792485278530853385FinancialassetsatFVTPL529287469964119641396415964Othernon-currentassets5418361066939813687Totalassets195062374127447290923136234304Currentliabilities113924133730318627152250Short-termborrowings049218491349849349Accountpayables18115650505050Taxpayable126281198198198198Othercurrentliabilities83214841633159016191654Non-currentliabilities5087231036103610361036Long-termborrowings00245245245245Obligationsunderfinanceleases279407489489489489Othernon-currentliabilities229316302302302302Totalliabilities164831364765422237513286Sharecapital872872872872872872Capitalsurplus119981188711852137181605418959Retainedearnings325357717270727072707270Otherreserves6406412412412412Totalshareholdersequity161191812419583214492378526689Minorityinterest174024823098342138264329Totalequityandliabilities195062374127447290923136234304PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation221936852585315239454905Depreciationamortization150197285266302334Taxpaid1902933143824790Changeinworkingcapital41235692103261317Others114019305076267331444Netcashfromoperations99914241357230627743478InvestingCapitalexpenditure156369449449449449Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments19490663300300300Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term186721401779140213021202investmentsOthers150185102000Netcashfrominvesting236727832789215020501950FinancingDividendpaid271284492552691852Netborrowings9034921607500500500Proceedsfromshareissues11212272315000Others698643621000Netcashfromfinancing9339163809105211911352NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear203799608378785869616494Exchangedifference476027000Cashattheendoftheyear996083787783696164946670GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue139633359199260250Grossprofit162500237329268259Operatingprofit166582303426272263Netprofit1079643302219252243Adjnetprofit269739250287268263PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin474436396439442445Operatingmargin269261250297300303Adjnetprofitmargin222236217233235237ReturnonequityROE172168106119135151GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060403030202Currentratiox1024530323747Receivableturnoverdays901459476476476476Inventoryturnoverdays060712050505Payableturnoverdays39820988888888VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEadjusted1142716571447353279PB504845413733Divyield030306070810SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE431Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5