研究报告全文：30Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKuaishou1024HKBUYMaintainAsolidstartinto2023ETargetPriceHK94PreviousTPHK94UpDownside330Kuaishoudeliveredupbeat4Q22withstrongeradslivestreamingandbetterCurrentPriceHK563marginLookingaheadweareconfidentonKSsadsrecoveryaswellassharegaininecommerceandlivestreamingAfterthecurrentpricecorrectionitwouldChinaInternetSectorbeagoodtimetoaccumulategiven1resilient1Q23Eguidanceforecastingrev15YoYwithdecentadsandlivestreaming2externaladsdemandtorecoverSophieHUANGin2Q23Eand3groupbreakeveninsightWebelieveitssolidguidanceinFY23E85239000889wouldalleviatemarketconcernonecommerceslowdownandadsrecoverypacesophiehuangcmbicomhkWeslightlyraisedFY23-24Erevby16-18withhighermargin02-08pptstoreflectbetterlivestreamingandeffectivecostcontrolOurSOTP-basedTPwasEasonXUunchangedatHK94consideringslightlyhighertoplinetooffsetFXchangeeasonxucmbicomhkSaiyiHEAnotherupbeatquarterAsstatedinourpreviewreportKuaishoudeliveredhesaiyicmbicomhkupbeat4Q22withrev16YoY4aboveconsensusandourestimatesandnarrowingnetlossatRMB45mnvs-RMB303247mnofconsensusourYeTAOestimateSuchstrongtoplinewasmainlydrivenbybetter-than-expectedadsfranktaocmbicomhk14YoY4aboveourestimateandlivestreaming14YoY6aboveourestimatewhileecommercewaslargelyinlineGMV30YoYMarginWentaoLUbeatonlowerSMRevratioandhigherotherincomeluwentaocmbicomhkExpectingsolidstartwithstronglivestreamingandadsKSiswellpositionedtocaptureadsrecoverypostChinasreopeninganddeliverStockDataabove-industrialgrowthoflivestreamingecommerce1Q23EwouldbeaMktCapHKmn242603Avg3mthstoHKmn154288goodstartwithrev15YoYvsconsensusof10andbottomlineat52wHighLowHK91503175-RMB502mnvsconsensus-RMB13bnBysegmentweforecastadstoTotalIssuedSharesmn3566SourceBloombergrise1520YoYin1Q23EFY23EinwhichexternaladsrecoverymightneedstimebutinternaladsandbrandadswillkeepstrongmomentumShareholdingStructureThankstorisingpayinguserswitheffectiveoperationlivestreamingwouldTencent205keepsolidgrowthforecasting126YoYin1Q23EFY23EvspriorMorningsideVentureCap158DCMLP6832ForecommercedespitemacrouncertaintyandfiercecompetitionSourceBloombergweseehighvisibilityforKStodeliverhigh-twentiesYoYgrowthforGMVinSharePerformance1Q23EFY23ETakeratewouldberelativelystableYoYforlowerreturnsAbsoluteRelativeafterreopeningtooffsetmerchantssupport1-mth22423-mth-201-200MarginenhancementwithdisciplinedSMWeturnmorepositiveon6-mth-13-99KSsmarginexpansionexpectprofitatRMB11bninFY23EwithadjNPMatSourceBloomberg1consideringdisciplinedSMandnarrowinglossofoverseasbizWeexpect12-mthPricePerformanceGPMat46in1Q23EFY23EandSMexpensestostayflatYoYinFY23EHK1024HKHSIrebased100MaintainBUYTofactorinresilientgrowthandbettermarginweslightly90raisedFY23-24Erevby16-18withhighermarginby02-08pptsOur8070TPisHK94withunchangedmultipleassigned6050EarningsSummary40YE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E3020RevenueRMBmn810829418310821212200513666910YoYgrowth3791621491271200AdjnetincomeRMBmn1885257511076526211273Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23AdjEPSRMB4713041432SourceBloombergYoYgrowthNANANA389114ConsensusEPSRMBNANA012146AuditorPwCPExNANA1994119PSx2623201816NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Mar2023Figure14Q22financialreviewRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22QoQYoYConsensusDiffCMBIDiffRevenue17019191392049324430210672169523128282922216272704271164OperatingProfit72927215740457905643305926121243NANA1827NA1580NANetprofit577507035708662026254317627121547NANA1842NA1625NAAdjnetprofit58964770461635693722131267245NANA303NA247NAMarginGrossMargin411438415415417450463455461458OperatingMargin-428-377-361-237-268-141-113-44-67-58Adjnetmargin-346-249-225-146-177-60-29-02-11-09GrowthRevenueYoY366488334350238134129158116110RevenueQoQ-6012571192-1383066223179172OperatingProfitNANANANANANANANANANAAdjnetprofitNANANANANANANANANANASourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure24Q22revenuebreakdownRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22QoQYoYTotalrevenue17019191392049324430210672169523128282922216Onlinemarketingservices855899621090913236113511100611590150943014Livestreaming7250719377248827784285658947100341214Otherservices121119831860236718732124259231642234SourceCompanydataFigure3QuarterlyDAUestimates40037025mn350203002501520015010100550001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23EDAUYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Mar2023Figure4QuarterlyGMVestimatesFigure5Quarterlyadsrevestimates35025016000180RMBmnRMBmn16030014000200140120002501201501000020010080001508010060006010040004027302750155010200062000001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23E1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23EGMVYoYRevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6QuarterlylivestreamingrevestimatesFigure7Quarterlymarginestimates120002560RMBmn20501000015401410308000125206000010-501Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23E4000-10-10-15-202000-20-300-25-401Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23ERevenueYoYGPMAdjNPMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8YearlyrevenuegrowthestimatesFigure9Yearlymarginestimates1201500060RMBmn10010000504080500030-60FY20FY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25E204050001010000200150000-10FY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25E20000-20-2025000-30LivestreamingOnlinemarketingservicesOtherservicesTotalAdjNPGPMAdjNPMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Mar2023MaintainBUYwithTPatHK94TofactorinstrongerlivestreamingweslightlyraisedFY23-24Erevforecastby16-18WealsolifteditsadjNPMby02-08pptinFY23-24EtoreflecteffectivecostcontrolinSMFigure10CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue10821212200513666910819012536014249400-27-41GrossProfit497645911069158517756353278382-39-70-118OperatingProfit608419897625787242313622NANA-283Adjnetprofit1076526211273923927819635166-433-426AdjEPSRMB0411413210121465491-321-308GrossMargin460484506479507550-19ppts-22ppts-44pptsOperatingMargin-56-0271-531996-03ppts-21ppts-24pptsAdjnetmargin104382097413801ppts-31ppts-55pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure11EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue108212122005136669106317120109NA1816NAGrossProfit4976459110691584970659162NA01-01NAOperatingProfit6084198976277662044NANANANAAdjnetprofit10765262112732204896NA389175NAEPSRMB041141321005106NA7458334NAGrossMargin460484506468493NA-08ppts-08pptsNAOperatingMargin-56-0271-73-17NA17ppts15pptsNANetMargin1043820241NA08ppts02pptsNASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Mar2023WemaintainourSOTP-basedTPofHK94implying33xFY23EPSandbarelychangedourforecastswithslightlyhigherrevtooffsetFXchangemultipleassignedunchangedWeassigned2xFY23EEVsalestoadbizunchangedstillbelowindustrialaverage1xFY23EEVsalestolivestreamingbizunchangedand16xFY23EPGMVtoecommercebizunchangedSubsegmentsmultipleassignedarebelowindustrialaverageconsideringitslowmargincurrentlyOurTP-impliedmultipleof33xFY23EPSisslightlyaboveindustrialaverageof26xforecommercewithPGMVmultiplebutwethinkKSdeservespremiummultiplegivenitssharegainandbettermarginoutlookFigure12SOTPValuationBusinessRMBmn23ERevorGMVMethodologyMultipleValuationStakesValueLivestreaming37592EVSales10x3759210037592Advertising58141EVSales20x116282100116282Ecommerce1144469PGMV016x183115100183115EnterpriseValue336989NetCash22533EquityValue359522FX088ValuationHKmn408548TPHKbasedonSOTP94SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure13CompstableCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-25EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ECAGRKuaishou1024HK31043HKD56BUY941992408190201816224GameTencent700HK469037HKD385BUY45522419116452464217NetEaseNTESUS59565USD91BUY11617515714139363210XDInc2400HK1714HKD28NANANANA342362721NAAverage20017421642363213LivestreamingVASBilibiliBILIUS10290USD25BUY30NANA569282421NAMomoMOMOUS1735USD9HOLD146056531009096YYYYUS2145USD30BUY461441119109080725HuyaHUYAUS803USD3BUY7NA627272070606NADouyuDOYUUS359USD1NANANANANA050404NATMETMEUS13814USD8BUY1117515914232302812Mango300413CH10107CNY37NANA35428524449433821iQIYIIQUS6627USD7BUY921614211314131238Average14915120219171616AdvertisingBaiduBIDUUS55922USD160BUY19617414713028262441WeiboWBUS4547USD19BUY2286777023212012Average13011210026232226EcommerceAlibabaBABAUS254610USD98BUY156126110972018167JDcomJDUS65635USD42BUY741451149604030321PinduoduoPDDUS92098USD73BUY1061521199538322723VipshopVIPSUS8923USD15NANA8782770605055Average1271069117151314GlobalentertainmentMetaPlatformsMETAUS520291USD201NANA18815614243383420NetflixNFLXUS144079USD324NANA26221317642383421SnapchatSNAPUS17490USD11NANANA633282373227301Average22518415941363217Average15814112426232117SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE530Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue8108294183108212122005136669Netincome7807713689649826683105Livestreaming3099535388375923834438699DA68856306741885599309Onlinemarketing4266549042581416810179224ChangeinWC24442631305519642029servicesOtherservices74219753124781556018745Others63229122037282915613001COGS5205156399628956751172035OperatingCF55192189112571701027443Grossprofit2903037783453175449464634Capex57899181112101080213228SM4417637121368913960441119Purchaseofinvestments-----AdminExp34003921437546334842Others125728367474747RD1495613784153901711718807InvestingCF1836117548111631075513180Othergains801137366354457Operatingprofit3270116906109746505324Equityraised39386----ChangeofDebts-----Otherincomeexp5131416697153247CashfromCBraised-----Pre-taxIncome7910212531644217405094Others28854482---FinancingCF365004482---IncomeTax10251158579291989Netprofit7807713689649826683105Netchangeincash126201984195625614263Adjnetprofit1885257511076526211273Cashbegofyr2039232612132741386320613FX399494494494494Cashendofyr3261213274138632061335370BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets3950543449485455024653623SalesmixPropertyandequipment1105113215115431448519380Livestreaming382376347314283Right-of-useassets1256210806185721779516743Onlinemarketing526521537558580servicesIntangibleassets11721123133614131489Otherservices92104115128137Others1472018305170941655316011Total10001000100010001000Currentassets5301145859474555425171496Cash3261213274141561968035370GrowthratePrepayments32784106461149625292Revenue379162149127120Financialassetsatfair884213087130871308713087Grossprofit429238187191231valuethroughprofitorlossTradereceivables44506288722481459124EBITNANANANANAOthers38289103837783778623AdjnetprofitNANANA38891142Currentliabilities3725640710452064844251572PLratiosAccountspayables2002122868256792763329471Operatingmargin4031801015302Otherpayablesand912310190114421231213131Pre-taxmargin976133601437accrualsAdvancesfromcustomers35033240367440854526Adjnetmargin23361104382Others46084411441144114444Effectivetaxrate139209150150101088744874487448760ReturnsNon-currentliabilities-----ROENANANA121205Convertibleredeemable101088744874487448760preferredsharesOthers-----MI4509639838409144617663668TotalEquity4509639838409144617663668Shareholdersequity3950543449485455024653623SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE630Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7