研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary29Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswererelativelyquietthismorningInAsianIGspacenewissueAIA49533tightened10bpsandHYNMTRstightened2-5bpsChinaTMTGlennKoCFA高志和narrowed5-10bpsboostedbyBABAsreorganizationChinaAT1slightlyup85236576235c025ptwhileLGFVwerestablewithtwo-waysglennkocmbicomhkROADKGReleasedFY22resultsMaintainbuyonROADKG775PERPSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩SUNACSignedRSAwithAHGwithequityanddebtoptionsandextending85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkmaturitiesfor2-9yearsSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919AsiaIGsentimentgenerallyimprovedovernightafterthenewsofFirstjerrywangcmbicomhkCitizensBanksacquisitionofSVBOntheprimaryfrontBMRIIJgaveIPGatT225bpfora3YUSDbondNewKOROIL35ytranchesweretraded10-15bpstighterfromROInKoreaspaceEIBKORKDB28s33stightenedby3-5bpswhileKHFCcurvewasunchangedBeforeclosewesawnegativeheadlineSyngentaShanghaiIPOhearinggotcancelledHAOHUAcurveimmediatelywidenedby5bpsTMTspacetightened5-10bpsBABA27s31stightened8-10bpsInfinancialsbankT2spaceclosed3-5bpstighterInChinaAMCsHRINTHsweretradedheavyCCAMCLannouncedearningswithnetprofitdown48yoybutcurvewaslargelyunchangedChinapropertyspacewasmixedwithqualitynamesbroadlyrebounded1-2ptsfromthelowsLNGFORsjumped24-39ptsSINOCE25-29sbouncedback1-2ptstomid-40safterhavingplunged7-9ptsonMonSINOCE24wasmarked2ptshigherat61DALWAN23-26sweretradedup1-15ptsCOGARDsclosed05-125ptshigherROADKGsweretradeddown2-45ptsGRNLGR24slowered15ptswhileGRNLGR25-26sweretradeddown3-6ptsIndustrialnamesFOSUNIsWESCHIsweredown05-1ptMacaugamingnameswereunchangedto05ptlowerInIndiaspaceAZUPOEswereunchangedto05pthigherVEDLN25sgained175ptsIndonesiannamesLPKRIJsweredown05ptsMEDCIJswere1pthigherIntheLGFVPerpAsiaAT1spacestoneremaineddefensiveaheadofquarterendasflowswereheavilyskewedtothefrontenddrivenbytwo-waycashmanagementneedswithAMparkingcashinpaperscomingoutofpropdesksduetorichyieldsandoutofRMrebalancingflowsOverallactivitieswerefairlylacklusterasinvestorsremainedcautiousinviewofnoisesfrommacroandthepropertysectorCTIH64Perpedgedanother0125pthigherto102SOEperpswereunchangedtoatouchfirmerAT1swaslargelystableBenchmarkAT1sBCHINA36PerpICBCAS358Perpweretradedactivetwo-waysskewedtobetterbuyingPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk129Mar2023LastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeLNGFOR41201162880939GRNLGR634062524463-60LNGFOR33804132781438ROADKG6090425735-45LNGFOR39509162972529CENCHI79110723226-39LNGFOR38501133267124ROADKG518072626614-33SINOCE43401143036723GRNLGR634030326370-30MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsremainedweakyesterdaySP-016Dow-012andNasdaq-045downamidworriesaboutpotentialrecessionUSlistedChinesestockswereoutperformerandboostedbyAlibabac14rallywhichannouncedsubstantialorganizationalchangesUSconsumerconfidencerisesto1042from1034inMarandishigherthanexpectationof101TheUStreasuryyieldsedgedhigheryesterdaytheyieldcurvesbearflattenedand251030yieldsreached402363355377respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点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