研究报告全文：28Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGreentownService2869HKBUYMaintainHighbrandqualitytoboostits2023recoveryTargetPriceHK593InlinewithprofitalertGreentownServicereportedstillstrongtoplinegrowthatPreviousTPHK79218YoYinFY22thankstoitscooperationwithCindaYueLifeandstrongthird-UpDownside263partyexpansionHowevertheGPMhasbeenimpactedduetoCOVIDandmixCurrentPriceHK470shiftthusdraggingdowncoreEBITto-9andNP-35YoYWeexpectthecompanytograduallyrecoverin2023with15YoYNPgrowthbecause1itsChinaPropertyServiceSectorhighbrandqualitywouldaccelerateintheexpansionofexistinghomemarket30ofoverallGFAexpansionduringpost-perioderaTogetherwithMiaoZhangcooperationwithCindaYuewethinkPMbusinesswouldgrowat20CAGRin2023E-25EThiswouldalsobringsynergytoitscommunitylivingsegment285237618910TheCompanyimplementedcostcontrolmeasuresasmanagementtargetstolowerzhangmiaocmbicomhkthelaborexpenserevenueby05ppttosupportastablemargin3ARimpairmentislikelytopeakin2022ThereforewemaintainBUYbutcutTPtoHK593JeffreyZeng85239163727StablecorebusinessthankstocooperationwithCindaYueLifeThejeffreyzengcmbicomhkCompanyreported22YoYgrowthinrevenueofBasicPMin2022asmanagedGFAwasexpanded26YoYto384mnsqmanincreaseof80mnsqminwhichc20149mnsqmwascontributedbytheCompanysequityBellaLicooperationwithCindaYueLifeIfexcludedtheimpactthemanagedGFAgrew85237576202214YoYin2022AstheCompanysGFAexpansionislikelytocontinuouslybellalicmbicomhkbenefitfromCindaYueLifeandtheGroupbehinditweestimatethatboththemanagedGFAandrevenueofbasicPMwillgrowat20CAGRin2023-25E2022earningsinlinewithprofitalertAsannouncedinprofitalerttheStockDataCompanyreported2022netprofitsdeclineof35YoYtoRMB584mndueMktCapHKmn15192to1GPmarginfellby23pptto162in2022mainlydraggeddownbyhighAvg3mthstoHKmn2412marginsegmentslikeconsultingbusinessGPMdown7pptandcommunity52wHighLowHK920322livingservicesGPMdown5pptasCOVIDrepeated258YoYgrowthinTotalIssuedSharesmn3232SourceBloombergimpairmentlossesonARsreachedRMB142mn3227YoYgrowthinotheroperatingexpensestoRMB125mnwhichmainlyincludeslossesonFVShareholdingStructurechangeinequityinvestmentsandbondportfoliosRevenuegrew18YoYtoOrchidGarden316RMB148bnandcoreoperatingprofitdeclinedby9onGPMerosioninFY22LIHairong140ManagementexpectedFY23Etorecord20-25coreoperatingprofitFreefloat544SourceHKExgrowthWethinkthisisachievablewithrevenueexpectedtogrowat20CAGRdrivenbystablepropertymanagementbusinessandrecoveryinSharePerformancecommunitylivingspaceAlsotheCompanywillfurtherenhancecostcontrolAbsoluteRelativetoreduce05inlaborcoststorevenueratioThusweestimateNPtogrow1-mth-49-45ataCAGRof15in2023-25EwhichisslightlyslowerthancoreEBITdueto3-mth-40-56likelylingeringimpairmentpressureaccountreceivablessurged62YoYto6-mth-60-116RMB5056mnin202212-mth-303-251MaintainBuyonstablecorebusinessWeliketheCompanysstablecoreSourceBloombergbusinessexpansionandhighbrandvalueandbelieveitislesspronetoriskfromrelatedpartiesMaintainBUYOurnewTParrivedatHK593reflecting12-mthPricePerformance25x2023EPEunchangedRisks1worse-than-expectedbusinessHK2869HKHSIrebasedexpansionand2slower-than-expectedeconomicrecovery10EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1256614856181232179526033YoYgrowth243182220203194NetincomeRMBmn846548639735840026017020023026EPSRMB0YoYgrowth12-35171514Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22NANA031036037ConsensusEPSRMBSourceBloombergPEx1492311981721512121201917PBxAuditorKPMGYield422318202312177859298ROENetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk28Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1812321795260331909723038na-5-5naGrossProfit30073586420734864312na-14-17naOperatingprofit9991150131615471897na-35-39naNetprofit63973584011141362na-43-46naEPSRMB020023026027034na-26-34naGrossMargin166165162183187na-17ppts-23pptsnaOperatingMargin5553518182na-26ppts-3pptsnaNetMargin3534325859na-23ppts-25pptsnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2FY22resultssummaryRMBmn20212022AYoYRevenue125661485618-Propertymanagementservices7770944622-Consultingservices196020675-Communitylivingservices261628549-Technologyservices221489122Grossprofit233124023Coreoperatingprofit1079981-9Netprofit846548-35EPSRMB026017-35DPSRMB016009-46Dividendpayoutratio6352-103pptGPMargin185162-24pptNetMargin6737-3pptManagedGFAmnsqm3041384126ReservedGFAmnsqm347437909SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE228Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1256614856A181232179526033Profitbeforetax1191864100911601326Propertymanagement77709446117541424817072DA181200200200200servicesConsultancyservices19602067206720672067Changeinworkingcapital347894110496126Communityvalue-added26162854366546535819Incometaxpaid242202271312357servicesTechnologyservices2214896368271075Costofsales1023612454151161820921826Others235727829696Grossprofit23312402300735864207Cashflowfromoperating1019695195910491199activitiesOtherincome98157733618CAPEX409454300300300Sellingandmarketing201266325371417Others108313779090Administrativeexpensesexpenses10501155148617872135Cashflowfrominvesting302141223210210Otherexpenses38125145174208activitiesOperatingprofit115086399911501316Equityraised-----Changeofdebts29321---SharefromJCE2129101010Dividendspaid560548224257294Financecost2637---Others218172292318Exceptional510---Cashflowfromfinancing779720253280313activitiesPre-taxprofit1191864100911601326Netchangeincash611661484558676Cashatthebeginningoftheyear44374307418356676225Incometax301233271312357FXdifferences6943---Cashattheendoftheyear43074183566762256901Profitfortheyear890631737848969Non-controllinginterest448498113129Netprofittoshareholders846548639735840KeyratiosYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EBalancesheetSalesmixYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EPropertymanagementservices618636649654656Non-currentassets50976013607961896299Consultancyservices1561391149579PPE77391797310731173Communityvalue-added208192202214224Goodwill451658658658658servicesTechnologyservices33353841Otherintangibleassets430529529529529Total9821000100010001000Others34423909391939293939ProfitlossratiosGrossmargin185162166165162Currentassets927810841119601354215402Operatingmargin9258555351Cashandcashequivalents434570641772926Netmargin6737353432Tradeandotherreceivables30554840440552986328Effectivetaxrate252269269269269Others57895430691474728148GrowthTotalAsset1437516854180391973121700Revenue243182220203194Grossprofit21231252193173Currentliabilities578973878127924710557Operatingprofit186-250157152144Tradeandotherpayables37064734547365937903Netprofit191-353167151143Contractliabilities13431529152915291529Others7391125112511251125BalancesheetratiosCurrentratiox1615151515Non-currentliabilities12161590149814791464Receivableturnoverdays8989898989Deferredtaxliabilities76101101101101Others11391490139713781363ReturnsROE12177859298Totalliabilities7004897896251072612021ROA5932353739Shareholdersequity70197121753680148560PershareNon-controllinginterests3517558539661095EPSRMB026017020023026TotalEquity73707876839089809655DPSRMB016009007008009BVPSRMB190183196210227SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE328Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4