研究报告全文：MN27Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateClouDr9955HKMarginimprovementdrivenbyeconomiesofscaleTargetPriceHK1455ClouDrreported2022revenueofRMB2988mnupby701YoYandadjustedPreviousTPHK3143netlossofRMB333mnnarrowedby25YoYBysegmentrevenueofin-UpDownside847hospitalsolutionincreasedby716YoYtoRMB2184mn731oftotalCurrentPriceHK788revenueincludingthe891YoYrevenuegrowthforvalueaddedsolutioniehospitalsuppliesandSaaSand339YoYrevenuegrowthforsubscriptionChinaHealthcaresolutioniedigitalmarketingservicesRevenueofpharmacysolutiongrewbyJillWUCFA760YoYtoRMB616mn206oftotalrevenueincludingthe861YoY85239000842revenuegrowthforvalueaddedsolutioniepharmacysuppliesand125jillwucmbicomhkYoYrevenuegrowthforsubscriptionsolutioniepharmacySaaSRevenueofindividualchronicconditionmanagementsolutionandothersincreasedby401BenchenHUANGCFAhuangbenchencmbicomhkYoYtoRMB188mn63oftotalrevenueAdjustednetlossmarginwassignificantlyreducedto111in2022from253in2021indicatinganobviousStockDataeffectofeconomiesofscaleMktCapHKmn46259Avg3mthstoHKmn74Stronggrowthinallsegmentsunderhospital-firststrategyAsa52wHighLowHKNANApioneerinChinadigitalchronicconditionmanagementmarketClouDrTotalIssuedSharesmn5870continuestoenhanceitsleadingpositionandcompetencyunderitshospital-SourceFactSetfirststrategythroughwhichtheCompanycanefficientlyexpanditsserviceShareholdingStructurelifecycletocoverpatientsandconsumersinout-of-hospitalscenariosAsofMingKuang219Dec2022ClouDrsin-hospitalSaaSwasinstalledin2567publichospitalsPrimeForestAssets125inChinaincluding714ClassIIIpublichospitalsand38ofChinasTop100SourceHKExhospitalsViaitsexpandinghospitalSaaSinstallationpooltheCompanyhasSharePerformancewitnessedarapidmonetizationprogressbyofferingdigitalmarketingAbsoluteRelativeserviceshigh-marginserviceswithahighgrowthceilingtodomesticand1-mth257263MNCpharmaceuticalcompaniesaswellasprovidingsuppliesrelatedto3-mth-398-408chronicconditiondiseasestohospitalsIntheout-of-hospitalscenarios6-mth-469-522SourceFactSetClouDrspharmacySaaShasbeeninstalledinmorethan190kpharmacystoresasof2022representing30penetrationofChinaretailpharmacy12-mthPricePerformancemarket179mnonlineprescriptionswereissuedonClouDrsplatformin2022makingitoneofthelargestonlineprescriptionplatformsinChinaConsistentmarginimprovementdrivenbytheeconomiesofscaleMarketingadminRDexpensesasofrevenuewerereducedto31211238in2022from448153134in2021asClouDrsuccessfullymonetizeditsSaaSnetworktogrowrevenueandachieveanincreasinginput-outputratioAdjustednetlossmarginsreducedfrom758SourceFactSetin2020to253in2021andfurtherto111in2022BusinessdisruptionscausedbyCOVIDoutbreaksin2022didnotaffectthegrowthmomentumofClouDrdemonstratingtheCompanysstrongbusinessresilienceWeexpectClouDrtorealizebreakevenintermsofadjustednetprofitin2024EMaintainBUYWerevisedourTPfromHK3143toHK1455basedona10-yearDCFmodelWACC100terminalgrowthrate30toreflectworse-than-expectedGPMtrendandvaluationpressureonemergingonlinehealthcarecompaniesWeforecastCloudrtoseerevenuegrowthof441396346YoYin2023E24E25EadjustednetlossofRMB143mnin2023EandadjustednetprofitofRMB62mnRMB363mnin2024E25ErespectivelyEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn17572988430560098086YoYgrowth1094701441396346AdjustednetprofitRMBmn44433314362363EPSAdjustedRMBna011024011062PSx2213090705SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk27Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue43056009808643586120na-120-182naGrossProfit12081655221515462199na-2191-2476naOperatingProfit-359-170120-32967nanmnmnaAdjustednetprofit-14362363-199149nanm-5825naAdjustedEPSRMB-024011062-034025nanm-5825naGrossMargin28052754273935493594na-744ppt-840pptnaOperatingMargin-834-283148-755109na-079ppt-393pptnaAdjustednetMargin-331103449-456243na125ppt-140pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue430560098086431258957909-015193223GrossProfit120816552215147021102905-1787-2155-2375OperatingProfit-359-170120-31641426nmnm-7189Adjustednetprofit-14362363-207140631nm-5567-4248AdjustedEPSRMB-024011062-043016083nm-3267-2551GrossMargin280527542739341035793672-605ppt-824ppt-933pptOperatingMargin-834-283148-734069539-100ppt-352ppt-391pptAdjustednetMargin-331103449-479237798148ppt-134ppt-349pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT359170120199320499754110115522111Taxrate0000150150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate35917010216927242464193613191794DA144130123123123123123123123123-Changeinworkingcapital69278227295369443509560588588-Capex80808080808080808080FCFF364398828354251754197741249Terminalvalue18314Terminalgrowthrate30WACC100CostofEquity125CostofDebt50EquityBeta095RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1000TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150PVofterminalvalueRMBmn7045TotalPVRMBmn7339NetdebtRMBmn47MinorityinterestRMBmn31EquityvalueRMBmn7261EquityvalueHKmn8542ofsharesmn587PricepershareHKpershare1455SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE227Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue83917572988430560098086Costofgoodssold60611872196309843545871Grossprofit233570792120816552215Operatingexpenses106912631344156618252095Sellingexpense626787933116213821617Adminexpense317270336280294307RDexpense132236115155180202Others63039313132Operatingprofit837693552359170120NetInterestincomeexpense58628152222Others200333981088000Pre-taxprofit28984153164837419397Incometax1210015Aftertaxprofit28974150164737419383Minorityinterest30143100Netprofit28674136164437319283Adjustednetprofit63644433314362363BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets153322822248262529093550Cashequivalents9141091250502336515Accountreceivables2994977597679881218Inventories59111225228309401Prepayment260420468581728869Othercurrentassets0163548548548548Non-currentassets155226586522472429PPE24361371099487Intangibles111165327292256221Goodwill192686868686Totalassets168725082834314733813980Currentliabilities50689644884133915111747Short-termborrowings204114193593593593Accountpayables7668121158258397Othercurrentliabilities46039005111128200298Accruedexpenses185457460460460460Non-currentliabilities131969696969Obligationsunderfinanceleases2520202020Othernon-currentliabilities111449494949Totalliabilities50819663953140815801816Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus336271381849170717702132Totalshareholdersequity336271381849170817702133Minorityinterest311732313131Totalequityandliabilities168725082834314733813980PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE327Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation28984156169437419397Depreciationamortization3587102144130123Changeinworkingcapital14314036069278227Others228135431295241271282Netcashfromoperations4386666575869275InvestingCapitalexpenditure418980808080Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments83440000Others37234566Netcashfrominvesting16015576757474FinancingNetborrowings11810646140000Proceedsfromshareissues00381000Others80011228152222Netcashfromfinancing9181015883852222NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear6019141091250502336Exchangedifference7170000Cashattheendoftheyear9141091270502336515GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue6001094701441396346Grossprofit27801449390525370338Adjnetprofitnanananana4848PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin277324265280275274Operatingmargin997395185832815Adjnetprofitmargin758253111331045ReturnonequityROEnanana21011142GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityxnana01000100Currentratiox030225201920Receivableturnoverdays995827767650600550Inventoryturnoverdays606262279269259249Payableturnoverdays387221157187217247VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPS472213090705SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE427Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5