研究报告全文：MN28Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSunnyOptical2382HKNDRtakeawaysabumpy1H23aheadAutoVRARbusinesstodrivelong-termgrowthTargetPriceHK8675WehostedaNDRforinvestorswithSunnyOpticalon27MarMgmtreiteratedPreviousTPHK86752023shipmentguidancewithgradualrecoverybutASPGPMofhandset-relatedUpDownside79productswereunderpressurein1H23Egivencamerade-spectrendLookingCurrentPriceHK9420aheadmgmtispositiveon1demandrecoveryin3Q23Eonsmartphonereplacementcycle2ARVRgrowthof30YoYinFY23Eand3risingADASChinaTechnologyadoptiontodriveASPGPMupsideinFY24-25ETradingat281x243xAlexNGFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDwithSOTP-85239000881basedTPofHK8675alexngcmbicomhk2023HandsetASPGPMunderpressuredemandrecoveryin3Q23ELilyYANGPhD85239163716Mgmthighlighted2023guidanceandbusinessoutlook1HCM5YoYlilyyangcmbicomhkshipmentgrowthbutASPunderpressureGPMtomaintainat5-82HLS5YoYshipmentgrowthwithde-specin1H23EweighingonASPGPMtoHanqingLIstayat20-25level3autocam15YoYVLSshipmentgrowthwithlihanqingcmbicomhkstableASPandGPMtomaintainat40VCMrevenuetogrow100YoYStockDatatoreachRMB2bninFY23E4VRARrevenuetogrow30YoYOverallMktCapHKmn1033374despitesluggishglobalsmartphoneshipmentforecastofsingle-digitdeclineAvg3mthstoHKmn970in2023mgmtremainspositiveon3Qdemandrecoverydrivenby52wHighLowHK137006755smartphonereplacementcycleandbetter-than-expectedHCMHLSTotalIssuedSharesmn10970SourceFactSetshipmentdrivenbySamsungandAppleproductramp-upShareholdingStructureLimitedordervisibilityinneartermPositiveonADASLiDARadoptionSunXuLtd355JPMorganChaseCo49Mgmtreiteratedthatthereisnoclearchangeinordervisibilityand1H23ESourceHKExremainschallengingduetoinventorycorrectionandde-spectrendMgmtexpectsautocameraadoptiontoincreasegraduallydueto1longproductSharePerformancedevelopmentcycle2risingADAScameraadoptioninEuropeUSJapanAbsoluteRelative1-mth2848andSouthKoreaonpixelupgradeand3competitionfromChinesenew3-mth3435energyvehicleaccelerationwhichwilldriveASPandmarginupsideinFY24-6-mth1868225EInadditiondespitehighercostandvariousLiDARtechroadmapintheSourceFactSetmarketmgmtremainscertainonLiDARtopairwithlevel4autonomous12-mthPricePerformancevehiclesandSunnyisactivelyexploringbusinessopportunitiesValuationKeyrisksWhilewearepositiveonSunnysproductroadmapandtechnologyleadershipwebelieveitsbumpyoutlookin1H23EwillcontinuetoweighonthestockTradingat281x243xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockisfairlyvaluedMaintainHOLDwithSOTP-basedTPofHK8675EarningsSummarySourceFactSetYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERelatedReportsRevenueRMBmn37497331973576340427427291StrongautoXRpipelinetoYoYgrowth131157713057weathersmartphoneheadwindsNetprofitRMBmn506112474133053382934299522Mar2023linkYoYgrowth22511336159123EPSReportedRMB45722029434038222H22firsttakeweaknessin-lineConsensusEPSRMB458248344431459awaitingrecovery21Mar2023PEx383468281243216linkPBx92513834313FY22EpreviewBumpyrecoveryYield0509151820in202315Mar2023linkROE268115143152156Netgearing16122608254129SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANT1DISCLOSURESONLASTPAGEMOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk28Mar2023FocusChartsFigure1SunnyOpticalrevenuetrendFigure2SunnyOpticalGPMtrendRMBmn4640000503500040300003017Thousands2500020820000100-115000010000-20-105000-200-302019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EOthersAutoLensHandsetLens3DsensingCameraModulesYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3SunnyHCMshipmenttrendFigure4SunnyHLSshipmenttrendmnunitmnunit20192020202120222023201920202021202220237018016060140501204010030308060812040102000JulJulAprOctAprOctJanJunJanJunFebMarFebMarAugSepDecNovAugSepDecNovMayMaySourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5Sunnynext-genhandsetcameraproductsFigure6SunnyopportunitiesinvehiclecamerasSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCounterpointCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE228Mar2023EarningsForecastsFigure7PLforecastRMBmnFY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue3749733197357634042742729YoY-13-1157713057Costofsales2876126592286573219033722Grossprofit87366605710682379008GPM233199199204211YoY04-2447615994SGA10321281104811931261ofrev-28-39-29-30-30RD26422803286132343418ofrev-70-84-80-80-80Othergainloss252537151418-Operatingprofit58513014408447125282OPM15691114117124YoY-04-485355154121Netprofit49932408321237214178NPM13373909298YoY23-518334159123SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8MajorassumptionsFY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25EShipmentvolumemnunitOpticalComponentsHandsetlenssets1440119312277120YoY-6-173-42-100Vehiclelenssets687994640YoY211619-32-100OptoelectronicProductsHandsetcameramodules6745175303070YoY14-233-42-100Otheroptoelectronic3Dsensing595154340YoY45-147-38-100OpticalInstrumentsMicroscopicinstruments2583203521770YoY322410-50-100RevenueRMBmnOpticalcomponents87769468110951293214843Optoelectronicproducts2833423326243292712327476Opticalinstruments387403339373410TotalRevenue3749733197357634042742729YoY-13-1157713057GrossMargin233199199204211Opticalcomponents395334340340340Optoelectronicproducts137107100105105Opticalinstruments451420455455455SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE328Mar2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithTPofHK8675WemaintainHOLDwithTPofHK8675Wederivedour12-monthTPfromSOTPvaluationmethodologyandourTPisbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof245xFY23EEPSinordertoreflect1Sunnysdiversificationinmultiplebusinesseswithdifferentgrowthprofilesand2visibilityofproductupcyclesacrossdifferentsegmentsWeassign18xPEtoitsCCMbusinesstoreflectitsChinasNo1positionproductupcycleandadvancedtechnologycapacityWeassign35xPEforitsvehiclelensbusinesstoreflectthehigh-marginandhigh-growthindustrynatureofvehiclelens25CAGRFY20-23EandSunnysNo1globalmarketshareWeapplya25xPEtoitshandsetlenssegmentgivensecularupgradetrendandcontinuedsharegainsfrompeersFigure9SunnyOpticalSOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY23EProfitFY23EEPSRMBTargetPECameramodules34210118xHandsetlenses44713125xVehiclelenses19005635xOthers2000625xTotalRMBImpliedPE294245xTPHK8675SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure10PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24ESunnyOptical2382HKHOLD13170942868-82812433834143152Qtech1478HKBUY6524352209067090898120Cowell1415HKNR21411996NANA84604736227264Truly732HKNR435108NANA------Catcher2474TTNR445418900NANA21017308084045Largan3008TTNR9729221000NANA1701711818107113Lite-on2301TTNR56957310NANA1191062020176194Primax4915TTNR9176050NANA95881615163168O-film002456CHNR2491526NANA-907464313208Average1512272523102132SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure1112MforwardPEbandFigure1212MforwardPBbandSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE428Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue380023749733197357634042742729Costofgoodssold293042876126592286573219033722Grossprofit869887366605710682379008Sellingexpense313274353261303320Adminexpense719758929787889940RDexpense249926422803286132343418Others698789504887902953Operatingprofit587758513014408447125282ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV0196666NetInterestincomeexpense224230293322354390Pre-taxprofit565356402715375643514886Incometax703579241451522586Minorityinterest68686693108121Netprofit495050612474330538294300Netdividends7999741048139816191818BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets256302798930646289193574434048Cashequivalents284256057033222386985740Accountreceivables821274487205858192649597Inventories578354824721642860967023STbankdeposits2381112485485485485FinancialassetsatFVTPL8480831410086100861008610086Othercurrentassets74281115111511151115Non-currentassets98091078512356137091427914530PPE7513830310120114531198712221Othernon-currentassets229524812236225622922310Totalassets354383877443001426285002348578Currentliabilities134111187319337170562224118314Short-termborrowings207115391990199019901990Accountpayables10733986912917106361582211895Othercurrentliabilities922315493875712946997016379Non-currentliabilities520160051482148214821482Long-termborrowings070030303030Othernon-currentliabilities520153051452145214521452Totalliabilities186121787920819185382372319796Sharecapital105105105105105105Otherreserves164922048321733235482565028010Totalshareholdersequity168262089522182240902630028781Minorityinterest229307344437545667Totalequityandliabilities354383877443001426285002348578CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation564356402715375643514886Depreciationamortization157016381816216624662766Changeinworkingcapital1152004053536448355188Others1684991207148204214Netcashfromoperations716069797377410114492250InvestingCapitalexpenditure227124983633350030003000Others3705403201000Netcashfrominvesting597629023834350030003000FinancingDividendpaid7969741048139816191818Netborrowings101700000Sharerepurchases15100000Others2912671111322354390Netcashfromfinancing22212412159172019742208PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE528Mar2023NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear191728425605703322238698Exchangedifference377344000Cashattheendoftheyear284256057033222386985740GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue04131157713057Grossprofit122042447615994Operatingprofit22304485355154121Netprofit23222511336159123PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin229233199199204211Operatingmargin15515691114117124ReturnonequityROE335268115143152156GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx000202000301Currentratiox192416171619Receivableturnoverdays857762806806806806Inventoryturnoverdays681715700710710710Payableturnoverdays137413071564150015001500VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE255383468281243216PB749251383431Divyield060509151820EV168261208953221824240900263000287815EVSales040607070707NoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE628Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7