研究报告全文：9MN29Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBiocytogen2315HKStrongrevenuegrowthinFY22BiocytogensFY22revenuegrew51YoYtoRMB534mninlinewithourTargetPriceHK3796estimateThepre-clinicalCROservicebusinessrealizeda54YoYrevenuePreviousTPHK4051growthtoRMB406mninFY22drivenbythestronggrowthofpre-clinicalUpDownside521pharmacologyefficacyevaluationandanimalmodelsellingbusinessunitsCurrentPriceHK2495revenue67and57YoYrespectivelyTheantibodydevelopmentbusinesswasabletomaintainastrongYoYrevenuegrowthof43eventhoughtherewereChinaHealthcareCOVID-19interruptionsandincreasingcostofcapitalinthebiotechbiopharmaJillWUCFAsectorin2022WithexpandingfootprintinEuropeandtheUStheCompanys85239000842overseasrevenueincreased82YoYtoRMB246mninFY2246oftotalFY22jillwucmbicomhkrevenuecomparedtoRMB136mninFY2135oftotalFY21revenueTheRDAndyWANGcostwasRMB699mnor131oftotalrevenueinFY22vsRMB558mnor15885236576288oftotalrevenueinFY21TheSGAratioversusrevenuedecreasedfrom65inandywangcmbicomhkFY21to59inFY22showingtheCompanysimprovingcostefficiencyInFY22theCompanyrecordedRMB602mnnetlossRMB546mninFY21Asofend-StockData2022BiocytogenhasasufficientcashbalanceofRMB627mnMktCapHKmn9965Avg3mthstoHKmn432Fullyhumanantibodydiscoveryplatformstodrivedealandrevenue52wHighLowHK28802350growthAsofend-2022Biocytogenhasreached34co-developmentdealsTotalIssuedSharesmn399SourceFactSetandhasout-licenseditsRenMiceplatformsto17leadingbiotechbiopharmacompanieswhohaveinitiated40projectssofarInMar2023BiocytogenalsoShareholdingStructureenteredanotherplatformout-licensingwithMNCJanssenAsofend-2022Management275Biocytogenhasknockedout680targetgenesintheRenMabplatformandSDICShanghai183SourceHKEx260targetgenesintheRenLiteplatformWeexpectby3Q23EtheCompanywillcompletemostoftheworkoftheProjectIntegrumRenMabandobtainSharePerformance400-500kantibodysequencescovering1000innovativetargetsTheAbsoluteRelativeRenNanoplatformisabletoproducefullyhumansinglechainantibody1-mth00193-mth-14-12sequencefordrugdevelopmentwithoutfurtherinvitrohumanizationandis6-mth-60-142currentlyusedforthedevelopmentofmoleculestargeting100genesInSourceFactSetadditiontheCompanyhasdevelopedTCRmplatformwhichcanbreakthrough12-mthPricePerformancethelimitationsoftraditionalantibodythattargetscellmembranesurfaceantigensandreplaceTCRwithantibodiesthatcantargetintracellularantigensTheRenMiceplatformswillbeanenginetocontinuouslydrivetheCompanysBDdealsandrevenuegrowthTounlockthevalueofin-housedevelopedassetsthroughout-licensingBiocytogensstrategyistoself-directtheearlyRDofdrugmoleculesandthentransferco-developthemoleculestowithitspartnerstoacceleratethePh23developmentBiocytogenhasthepotentialtorealizemultipleout-licensingSourceFactSetdealsforitsadvancedassetsincludingYH008PD-1CD40YH003CD40YH006CTLA-4OX40YH012HER2TROP2ADCYH013EGFRMETADCetcYH008hasenteredPh1trialintheUSandChinawhichmayfacilitatetheex-ChinadealdiscussionsuponthedatareleaseofthetrialYH003isbeingassessedinaPh2MRCTtrialcombowithPD-1forPDACintheUSChinaAustraliaNewZealandandotherregionsandinaPh2trialformelanomainChinaYH001enteredaPh12studyintheUSbyTraconforsarcomawiththedataofthePh1parttobeavailablebyend-2023BiocytogenitselfisalsoconductingaPh2MRCTtrialofYH001forNSCLCandHCCMaintainBUYWerevisedourDCF-basedTPtoHK3796fromHK4051WACC111terminalgrowthrate30EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn3555347339721334YoYgrowth398506372327372NetprofitRMBmn546602284121113EPSReportedRMB151158071030028ROE403501282151141RDexpensesRMBmn558699454438427SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk29Mar2023Figure1Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EEBIT-218-5321550483612181645209824802750302332653500Taxrate0000150150150150150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate-218-5318342871010361398178421082338257027752975DA80869297102107112116120124128132135-Changeinworkingcapital-119-28-46-85-76-100-95-100-80-55-52-35-28-Capex-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200FCFF-457-196282415368431215160019492207244626722882Terminalvalue36681TerminalvalueRMBmn8411TotalPVRMBmn13843NetdebtRMBmn498MinorityinterestRMBmn5EquityvalueRMBmn13340ofsharesmn399PricepershareRMBpershare334PricepershareHKpershare3796Terminalgrowthrate30WACC111CostofEquity140CostofDebt50EquityBeta105RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1050TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2SensitivityanalysisHKWACC423310110611111612140519446354159375233993549024398396635913265Terminalgrowthrate304651419237963450314625443340123645332430402042413853351232112944SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue733972133478210981559-6-11-14GrossProfit54773110145838281187-6-12-15OperatingProfit21651218323150153NANA42Netprofit28412111335720474NANA52EPSRMB071030028089051019NANA52GrossMargin747375227601744975407613024ppt-018ppt-012pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue733972133485311941778-14-19-25GrossProfit54773110146188741330-11-16-24OperatingProfit2165121828870NANANANANetprofit2841211132898668NANANAEPSRMB071030028074022NANANANAGrossMargin747375227601724873217480225ppt201ppt121pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE229Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue2543555347339721334Costofgoodssold87107142185241320Grossprofit1672473925477311014Operatingexpenses525753922763783796Sellingexpense3242507090120Adminexpense245188263256272267RDexpense276558699454438427Others19104000Operatingprofit35850653021651218Otherexpense1183956697085Othergainslosses92687171718ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV0015000Pre-taxprofit477546601284121133Incometax0010020Aftertaxprofit477546602284121113Minorityinterest4900000Netprofit428546602284121113BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets114887491980411211198Cashequivalents750466627423659617Accountreceivables115183148231304413Inventories81519243242Othercurrentassets25416885858585Contractobtainingcosts214241414141Non-currentassets117914291881200121152223PPE113613911599171918331942Intangibles2631313131Othernon-currentassets4132251251251251Totalassets232723032800280532353421Currentliabilities328447606575627700Borrowings127127127127Accountpayables88102146152198263Taxpayable142745454545Othercurrentliabilities001111Leaseliabilities179256231231231231Contractliabilities486256202534Non-currentliabilities5406041043136318631863Long-termborrowings0052372872872Deferredincome909390909090Othernon-currentliabilities450511901901901901Totalliabilities86810511522181123622436Sharecapital360375399399399399Otherreserves1098877751467346459Totalshareholdersequity145812521151867745858Totalequityandliabilities232723032800280532353421PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE329Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation477546601284121133Depreciationamortization4312813208692Taxpaid0010020Changeinworkingcapital2910621192846Others23762561487085Netcashfromoperations2253663532556243InvestingCapitalexpenditure296199100200200200Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term13936500000investmentsOthers128553556697085Netcashfrominvesting18884156269270285FinancingDividendpaid000000Proceedsfromshareissues948311483000Others80921803205000Netcashfromfinancing8682196633205000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear4697466627423659Exchangedifference24600000Cashattheendoftheyear697466621423659617GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue493398506372327372Grossprofit719482583397336386PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin659698734747752760Operatingmargin1414142799429453163ReturnonequityROE898403501282151141GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox352019182221Receivableturnoverdays9681061736750740730Inventoryturnoverdays337516478478478478Payableturnoverdays221732383192300030003000VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEnanananana783PEdilutednanananana783SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE429Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5