>> 招银国际-Shenzhen Pagoda (2411 HK) An ensuring 2022; and we remain positive for 2023-230330
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研究报告全文：30Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyupdateShenzhenPagoda2411HKAnensuring2022andweremainpositiveforBUYMaintainTargetPriceHK772023PreviousTPHK79Anin-line2022Pagodas2022netprofitscameinin-linewithusSinceUpDownside262thisisthefirstresultreportingafterIPOinJanthisyearwethinktheeventCurrentPriceHK61couldprovideincrementalconfidencetoinvestorsaboutPagodasbusinessChinaConsumerstabilityandcorporategovernancegoingforwardFoodandBeverages2023outlookManagementremainedpositivefor2023duringanalystbriefingandmaintaineditsguidancefortheyearWeprojectPagodatoJosephWong85239000838delivera1213-yearrevenueCAGRoutgrowing78oftheindustryperjosephwongcmbicomhkFrostSullivanInourviewanacceleratingExcellent-gradesalesmixfrom92in2019to196in2024EdrivestheoutperformanceAlternativelyStockDataweenvisagethegrowthwillbeunderpinnedbyac600storeadditionperMktCapHKmn9690annumalongwith79same-store-salesgrowthfor202324EBothAvg3mthstoHKmnnashouldaidGPMtoexpandfrom116in2022to127in2024E52wHighLowHK7155TotalIssuedSharesmn1183Ac40dividendpayoutRelativetoHongjiuPagodaenjoysashorterSourceBBGcashconversioncycleGivencapexhasalreadypeaked-outtheampleShareholdingStructurecashstreaminourviewshouldcontinuetosustainac40dividendWangYonghua1493payouttoshareholdersCICC1326HongYuanShangGo1097EarningschangeGivenanin-lineresultwelargelymaintainour2023-SourceBBG24Eforecastsdespiteanyhousekeepingchangesfromtheactual2022SharePerformanceresultsannouncementAbsoluteRelative1-mth-32-75ValuationOurTPisbasedonanunchanged230xend-23EPEwhichstill3-mthnanabenchmarkstotheaveragevaluationofitsdomesticandglobalpeersIn6-mthnanaourviewourmethodologyismoreappropriatetoreflect1PagodasfairSourceBBGvaluegivenashortlistinghistorysinceIPOinJan2023and2thefinancial12-mthPricePerformancecomparabilityofeachpeergroupHKD702411HKHSCEIrebased6050Earningssummary403020YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E10RevenueRMBmn88541028911312128901448200YoYgrowth1416299139124Jan-23Jan-23Jan-23Jan-23Jan-23Jan-23Jan-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Mar-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23Feb-23NetincomeRMBmn49235323434575Feb-23SourceBBGEPSRMB0202020304YoYgrowth-58377341327PExnana247184139RelatedReports1CRBeer291HKAnin-linePBxnana2624222H22ourtoppickamongChinaYieldnana111520FBnames27Mar2023ROE2089109134158Netgearing193336netcashnetcashnetcash2HongjiuFruits6689HKASourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatessolidandrobust2022alleyesontheupcomingOCFturnaround22Mar2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue113121289014482111761275214308121112GrossProfit131415821846132815861848-11-02-01EBIT38553068638554169800-22-17Netprofit32343457531844758617-31-18GrossMargin116123127119124129-03ppt-02ppt-02pptEBITMargin3441473442490ppt-01ppt-01pptNetMargin2934402835410ppt-01ppt-01pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE30Mar2023FinancialsIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue885410289113121289014482Profitsbeforetax72262346502670Salesoffruitsother86379992109821249214022DA4755616179Othersproducts217298330398460Changeinworkingcapital197104260162172Others18134143169Grossprofits8071156131415821846Netcashfroperatingact298286681371509Sellingexpense395452499580666Capexinvestments15844555555Administrationexpenses216303322342362Others220534505050RDexpense106140173206217Netcashfrinvestingact378578105105105Otherexpensenet5737647585EBIT148300385530686ChangeofDebts308523100100100Dividendpaid--60141188Financecostsnet4054524129Others901214854129Non-operating3616131313Netcashfrfinancingact217402325282318Preincomeexpense-taxprofit72262346502670Netchangeincash1371109011686Incometax2636407198Cashatthebeginningofthe31745556514661450LessMinorityinterests391733Cashyearattheendoftheyear455565146614501536Netprofit49235323434575Lesspledgedcash-----BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets17502015208020742050SalesmixPPEFixedassets247308450466454Salesoffruitsotherproducts976971971969968Intangibleassets252248242220207Others2429293132Right-of-useassets295610547547547Othernon-currentassets955849841841841PLratiosGrossmargin91112116123127Currentassets34954409473049215234EBITmargin1729344147Cash455565146614501536Pre-taxmargin0825313946Accountreceivable12911156111812711409Netmargin0623293440Inventory259247337341381Effectivetaxrate363138116142146Othercurrentassets14902442180818581908BalancesheetanalysisCurrentliabilities23213057315530412937Currentratiox0101030303Accountspayable305345510496492Nettradereceivabledays532410361360355Accrualsandother10281178131813181318Inventoryturnoverdays11899123110110Borrowingpayables9111435123111311031Nettradepayabledays138138186160142Othercurrentliabilities7798969696Netdebttoequity193336NetcashNetcashNetcashNon-currentliabilities395650635644654ReturnsBorrowings1817104104104ROE2089109134158Leaseliabilities261519433433433ROA0937476279Othernon-currentliabilities11611498107117ROIC1043537395Totalequity25292717301933093693PershareSharecapital15001500150015001500EPSRMB0202020304MinorityInterest7477656259DPSRMB--010101Reserves9551140145517472134BVPSRMB1718202225SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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