研究报告全文：31Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBotaneeBiotech300957CHBUYmaintainESOPtargetsstabilizeearningsexpectationTargetPriceRMB157butsentimentoverhangremainsPreviousTPRMB2292023outlookDespiteamissin4QwethinkBotaneeissettorecoveralongUpDownside222withChinasreopeningthankstoitsOMOdistributionnetworkandanCurrentPriceRMB128unchallengedRDfranchisethatdifferentiatesfrompeersOurchannelcheckChinaConsumersuggestedWinona2M23salesgrew20onTmallTaobaoand300onHouseholdandPersonalCareTiktokForitsofflinebusinesswestillseehugepotentialtoexpandfromcurrently19to26oftotalrevenueby2024EwhenBotaneeonlyJosephWongpenetrateslessthan5ofthenationaldrugstoresatpresentWebelievethe85239000838trendmatcheswellwithBotaneespremiumbrandingasshoppingexperiencejosephwongcmbicomhkanddirectcustomercareisprioritizedatphysicalstoresSeparatelyweStockDataexpectarelativelystableGPMfor2023EdespiteapotentiallywideningonlineMktCapRMBmn53954promotionincentivethankstoarisingcontributionfromhigh-endnewbrandsAvg3mthstoRMBmn5566suchasAOXMEDWinonaBabyetcPromotionalandRDexpenseinour52wHighLowRMB22701149viewwillgrowinlinewithpeersinthepostCOVIDeraandhopefullytheTotalIssuedSharesmn424SourceBloomberginflationwouldbepartiallyoffsetbyaloweradministrationexpensePositivetakeawayfromtherestrictivesharesincentiveplanAlongwithShareholdingStructureKMNuonaTech461theresultsannouncementBotaneealsoreporteditsESOPplanforitsstaffTJHongshanJuye188Theplanwillgrant15ofBotaneessharesto298employeescoveringKunmingZhenli88boardmembersandkeyoperationmanagersifthestackedrevenueandnetSourceBloombergprofitsgrowthisnotlowerthan28613100respectivelyfortheyearSharePerformance20232425EWeviewthispositivelyasthetargetlikelyexceedsmarketAbsoluteRelativeexpectationandprovidesaclearfinancialguidancetothemarket1-mth-80-733-mth-147-182SentimentoverhangremainsSubsequenttotheproductscandaloverthe6-mth-260-302SourceBloombergDouble11campaignlastyearthedepartureofco-founderandthesell-offfromapre-IPOinvestorcontinuestoweighonsharepriceWhilea12-mthPricePerformancereplacementforthefounderwasappointedinternallyBotaneewillhavetoRMBreestablishitstrackrecordtothemarketparticularlywhenthelowhanging2500300957CHSHSZ300rebasedfruitoflivestreamingdistributionisgone20001500EarningschangeToreflectthe4QresultsandtheESOPtargetwecutour1000202324Erevenueby9eachandthisleadstoanaverage9cutinnet500profitsfortheperiods00Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22ValuationOurnewTPisbasedon485xend-23EPEfrom20xPEGthatSourceWindrepresents-1sdbelowitsaveragesinceIPOWeswitchourmethodologyfromPEGtoPEaswenowhavealongerlistinghistorytoreasonablytrackRelatedReportsBotaneeshistoricalvaluationWebenchmarkourtargetmultipleto-1sd1NongfuSpring9633HKMid-teentop-linegrowthanda90belowaveragetoreflectthesentimentoverhangmentionedabovedividendpayoutsustaintheYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24Evaluationpremiumoverpeers30Mar2023RevenueRMBmn26364022501465478429YoYgrowth3565262463062882ShenzhenPagoda2411HKNetincomeRMBmn544863105113741716Anensuring2022andweEPSRMB1621253241remainpositivefor202330YoYgrowth311370191283249Mar2023ConsensusEPSnana263545PExnana504393314PBxnana968269DivYieldnana060810ROE453181188210221NetgearingnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue501465478429544572049282-79-91-92GrossProfit377149156308412354426897-85-97-85EBITDA110715221989134718442294-178-175-133Netprofit105113741716117315421869-104-109-82GrossMargin752751748757755743-05ppt-05ppt05pptEBITDAMargin221232236247256247-27ppt-24ppt-11pptNetMargin210210204215214201-06ppt-04ppt02pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue501465478429536869378865-66-56-49GrossProfit377149156308410753066774-82-74-69EBITDA110715221989130917152211-155-113-100Netprofit105113741716115714881920-91-76-106GrossMargin752751748765765764-13ppt-14ppt-16pptEBITDAMargin221232236244247249-23ppt-15ppt-13pptNetMargin210210204216215217-06ppt-05ppt-13pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Botanee-12MforwardPEbandFigure4Botanee-trailingPBbandx1-yrfwdPELTaverage-2SDx1-yrfwdPELTaverage-2SD14045-1SD1SD2SD-1SD1SD2SD40120351003025802060151040520Jul21Jul22JulOct22OctApr21Apr21Oct22AprJun21Jun22Jan22Jun23JanMar21Mar22Feb22Mar23Feb23MarNov21Nov21Dec22Nov22DecAug21Aug21Sep22Aug22SepMay21May22MayJul22JulJul21JulApr21Apr21Oct22Apr22OctJun21Jun22Jan22Jun23JanFeb22Feb22MarMar21Mar23Feb23MarNov21Nov21Dec22Nov22DecAug21Aug21Sep22Aug22SepMay22MayMay21MaySourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue26364022501465478429Netincome544863105113741716Mainbusinessrevenue26214008499865318413DA25353880152Otherbusiness1615161616Changeinworkingcapital15113413136178Others1324250211Grossprofits20103057377149156308Netcashfroperatingact4311153117813191691DA25353880152Capexinvestments89271344427546Sellingexpense11071681204826743443Investments7608628202--Administrationexpenses169245343393506Others763634181--Otheroperatingexpenses85131273326370Netcashfrinvestingact862558465427546EBIT625966106914421837Equityraised-2925---EBITDA6501000110715221989ChangeofDebts15-40--Dividendpaid104191296391498Financecostsnet111111111Others270---Otherincomeexpense25955518Netcashfrfinancingact1212664336391498Non-operating222--Preincomeexpense-taxprofit6481018121415871982Netchangeincash2241258377501647Cashatthebeginningoftheyear629853211224892990Incometax104154163214267Exchangedifference10---LessMinorityinterests01111Cashattheendoftheyear8532112248929903637Netprofit544863105113741716Lesspledgedcash1017725--BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets211587100413511745SalesmixPPEFixedassets69113206525886Mainbusinessrevenue994996997998998Netintangibles55657891106Otherbusiness0604030202Long-termdeferred20416782101Otherexpensesnon-currentassets67369653653653PLratiosGrossmargin763760752751748Currentassets13915225571564387404Operatingmargin237240213220218Cashandequivalents7522035251429903637Pre-taxmargin246253242242235Accountsreceivable187247270317385Netmargin206215210210204Prepayments2946424242Effectivetaxrate161151135135135Othercurrentassets4232897288930903340BalancesheetanalysisCurrentliabilities39190099211041243Currentratiox0504040505Borrowings-----Netreceivabledays2120191615Accountpayables135362372484624Netpayabledays65941089695Otherpayables176417500500500Inventoryturnoverdays132136166172171Taxpayables80122119119119NetdebttoequitynetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashnetcashNon-currentliabilities9134125125125ReturnsBorrowings-50111111ROE452181188210221Othernon-currentliabilities984115115115ROA339148156176188Dividendyield0203060810MinorityInterest323242526PershareTotalnetassets12024778560265617780EPSRMB1621253241Shareholdersequity11994755557865367754DPSRMB0506081013BVPSRMB33117132155184SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4