研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary31Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereoverallstablethismorningAsianIGopened5-20bpstightenthendecreaseto2-5bpstightenTMTsectorcontinuestoriseandKoreanGlennKoCFA高志和AAratingnamesalsonarrowed3-5bpsAT1SOEperpswerequietLGFV85236576235newissueSHLTIG26edgedupc025ptglennkocmbicomhkHONGQIFY22resultshurtbyhighermaterialcostsbutdiversefundingchannelsupportsrepaymentabilityHONGQI23wasunchangedandHONGQI24downc1ptsinceresultsreleasedonlastFridaySeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkCOGARDWeakFY22resultsasexpectedconcernsonrefinancingplanremainsCOGARDsrallied075to5ptsyesterdayand05to4ptsthismorningSeebelowJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkNewKOMRMR28sopened10bpstighterbutthenretracedalltheintra-daytighteningbacktounchangedT185intocloseNewAIA33swereindicated3bpswiderChinaTMTsweretradedanother3-8bpstighterWesawmoreactivetwo-wayflowsinBABATENCNTLENOVOInSOEsHAOHUAcurveedged2-5bpstighterInfinancialsHRINTHcurvewastraded10-50bpstighter15-35ptshigherpostthecompanyannouncedearningsGRWALLCCAMCLwerealsounderbetterbuyingInT2spaceChinabanksgrinded1-5bpstighterWesawBCHINAICBCASCINDBKwerebetter-bidwiththesupportfromRMsSGspacewereunderbetterbuyingaswellLeasingandChinasecurityhousesweretraded2-5bpswiderInChinesepropertiesSINOCEsperformedmixedasits24-26sweremarked3-65ptslowerandfluctuatedbetweenmid-50stohigh-60sWhilstSINOCE29s30sweremarked7pshigheratmid-40sCOGARDsweretraded15-45ptshigheracrossthecurveROADKGswereup15-25ptsGRNLGR24sweremarked475ptshigherAwayfrompropertiesMacaugamingnamessuchasMPELsSANLTDswereup05-15ptsIndustrialnamesFOSUNIsWESCHIswerebidup05-1ptInIndiaspaceVEDLNsmoved05-15ptslowerIndonesiannamesLMRTSPsMEDCIJsweremarked075-175ptshigherIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacestherecentrisk-onsentimentcarriedforwardintoThursdayInAT1sHSBC8Perpgained25ptstoclosearound9775amidregionalRMsPBsbuyinginlightoftherecoveryinEuropeanAT1singeneralHKbankbetanamesperformedstronglyBNKEA5825PerpNANYAN65Perpweretraded05-15ptshigherOtherChineseAT1slow-betanamesbroadlyclosedunchangedto025-05pthigherThaiKoreanAT1swereuparound05ptInSOEPerpsCTIH64Perpwastradedanother0375pthighertoclosearound1025onthebackofRMbuyingTherestoftheSOEperpspacewasmarked0125-025ptshigheramidPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk131Mar2023two-wayflowsamongChineseAMswhilstwealsosawprofittakerssellingintodeploymentflowsInLGFVsflowsweretwo-wayskewedtosmallbettersellinginthefrontendpapersalthoughsentimentremainedafloatLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeSINOCE43401143044470SINOCE38042625446-65COGARD31810222556847SINOCE6876PERP337-47GRNLGR63406252450847SINOCE6073024687-46COGARD55812152656146SINOCE314050526528-37COGARD5405272563145SINOCE27011325554-30MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsgotanotherreboundyesterdaySP057Dow043andNasdaq073continuedtobeboostedbytechnameslikeAMDorAMZNUSlatestweeklyinitialjoblessclaimis198khigherthanexpectationof196kTheUStreasuryyieldsweredivergentyesterdaywithshort-termyieldrosewhilelong-termyieldslightlydownthe251030yieldsreached410366355374respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点HONGQIFY22resultshurtbyhighermaterialcostsbutdiversefundingchannelssupportrepaymentabilityHongqiaosFY22resultswereinlinewithprofitwarningsThecostofrawmaterialbauxiteandaluminaincreasedsignificantlyinFY22drivinguptheoverallcostofsalesGrossprofitfellbyc40yoytoRMB182bnGPmargindownto138from266inFY21despiteincreaseinunitsalepriceofaluminumproductsFinancecostwithRMB600mnreductionduetorepaymentofoffshoreUSDbondandonshoreMTNsthetotalinterestbearingdebtatcRMB60bnatDec22down2fromDec21OperatingcashflowfellinFY22partlyduetotheincreaseinrawmaterialinventorylevelto2monthsfrom15daystocreateabufferfacingthetightrawmaterialmarketsupplyThecashbalancedroppedtoRMB274bnatDec22fromRMB492bnatDec21howeverthecompanysaiditissatisfiedwiththecurrentlevelItestimatedthecashlevelatRMB7-8bnissufficientfortheirdailyoperationOntheotherhandoneofthefiveratingdowngradetriggersofMoodysisadjusteddebtEBITDAremains3xPerourdiscussionwithMoodystheFY22numbersarestillbelowthetriggerbasedontheresultsannouncementyettheyarewaitingforthefullannualreporttoperformanalysisespeciallyonthecashflowMeanwhileSPcouldchangeitspositiveoutlookbacktostableifFFOdebttrendstowards45overasustainedperiodWehavealsodiscussedwithSPthattheywillrefreshtheirforwardlookingviewsafterdiscussingwiththecompanyespeciallyontheirrawmaterialcostandinventorylevelexpectationincoming1-2yearsItwouldnotleadtoanimmediatechangeinoutlookbacktostablesolelybecausetheratiofellbelow45forFY22ItiscurrentlyratedatBa2StableMoodysandBB-PositiveSPIntermsofCAPEXithascompletedthe1stphaseofYunnanprojectof1mtelectrolyticaluminumproductioncapacityshiftinFY22TheFY23CAPEXisbudgetedatsimilarlevelasFY22atcRMB9bnthisalreadyincludedthecostofproductioncapacityshifttoYunnanHongheprojectandotherPPEpurchaseandrecurringmaintenance231Mar2023FordebtissuingplanitiswaitingfortheNDRCapprovalonUSD500mnoffshorebondandloanforrefinancingWeseeitsdiversefundingchannelsbothonshoreandoffshoreallowsittorefinanceandmeettheneartermmaturityassupportedbyitsstrongmarketpositionasoneoftheworldslargestaluminumproducersandrecordofrobustoperatingcashinflowacrosstheyearDuring1Q23itraisedRMB2bnc1-yearbillsandproposedtoofferuptoRMB20bn7-yearbondstorepaydebtsitalsoraisedRMB300mnvia2-yearMTNstofundrawmaterialpurchaseItcurrentlyhas2USDbondsoutstandingwiththenearestmaturityinMay23amountingtocRMB138bnUSD200mnItisabletorepaythedue23withitsexistingcashinourviewListofoutstandingoffshoreUSDbondsAskPriceYTMAskAmountosHONGQI737505022023100161USD200mnHONGQI6250608202496198USD500mnSourceBloombergCOGARDWeakFY22resultsasexpectedconcernsonrefinancingremainCountrygardenreleasedweakFY22resultsasexpectedgiventhesluggishpropertysalesandprofitwarningissuedon13Mar23ItsFY22revenuewasdown177yoytoRMB43037bnandgrossprofitdown646yoytoRMB329bnrepresenting76grossprofitmargindroppedfrom177inFY21ThecompanymadecRMB23bnassetimpairmentprovisionincludingcRMB15bnonconstructioninprocessandcRMB8bnonsoldpropertiestheadjustedFY22grossprofitmarginis134ifexcludingtheimpairmentprovisionIn2022CountrygardensattributablecontractedsaleswasRMB35747bnandGFAisc445mnsqmfell359and330yoyrepectivelyThecontractedASPwascRMB8033downfromRMB8402inFY22ItscontractedASPhaddeclinedinfourconsecutiveyearsWeexpectitsgrossprofitmargintocontinueunderpressureinviewofcontractedASPofRMB7356in2M23CountrygardendiscussedaboutthedebtrefinancingandissuingplansformaturitiesinFY23WenotetheprogressofCOGARDinaccessingvariousfundingchannelsoverthepastfewmonthshoweverCOGARDremainstohaveahecticyearinrefinancingactivitiesWhiletheonlyoffshorebondmaturitieswillbetheCBCOGARD45120523ofcUSD380mnithasoffshoreloansmaturitiesamortizationofUSD13bncUSD100mnin1H23andUSD12bnin2H23fortherestoftheyearItalsohadonshorebondmaturitiesputstotaledUSD34bnequivalentThetotalbondmaturitiesputsaswellasoffshoreloanmaturitiesamortizationfortherestof2023willbecUSD51bnOntopoftheseCOGARDwillhavetopaycouponofalloutstandingonshoreandoffshorebondstotaledcUSD720mnHencethereremainsalotofworktobedoneontherefinancingrequirementsin2023AsperCOGARDitplanstoissuecRMB20bnonshoresecuredbondsanditstillhasplentyavailableassetsforpledgeincludingcRMB14bnpropertiescRMB25bnhotelcRMB21bnventurecapitalequityandcRMB400bndevelopinginventoriesItcouldalsorepaythembyc10ofmonthlysalesifthereisnoaccesstorefinancingWebelievethatthekeyforCOGARDlikethatformanyotherpeersisasignificantrecoveryofcontractsalesTheprospectofsalesrecoveryforCOGARDcouldbemorechallenginginviewofitslargerexposureinlowertiercitiesOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNorthernStar60010yr6125T270Baa3BBB-BBB-331Mar2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere81creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB60bnAsforMonth-to-date2392creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB2233bnraisedrepresentinga267yoyincreaseChinaofficialmanufacturingPMIofMar23is519downfrom526inFeb23ADEINMediareportedthatAdaniisinprivatebondplacementtalkswithUSinvestorsincludingBlackRockPimcoAGILEAgileFY22revenuedrops26toRMB54bnandcashequivalentsdecreasestoRMB846bnfromRMB228bnBABAMediareportedthatAlibabalogisticsarmworkingwithbanksonpotentialHKIPOCHINSCChinaSCEGrouprepurchasesUSD2065mnofCHINSC725041923inopenmarketitsFY22revenuedown29toRMB267bnHONGQIChinaHongqiaounitissuedRMB300mntwo-yearMTNstofundrawmaterialprocurementJDMediareportedthatJDplanstolistpropertyindustrialsubsidiariesinHKJINGRUJingruiHoldingsFY22revenuedown42toRMB791bnitsco-chairmanChenXingeresignsYanHaotoserveasboardchairmanCEOKWGPROKWGGroupexpectsRMB96-985bnlossforFY22LPKRIJMediareportedthatLippoKarawacitargetsIDR49tncUSD317mnpresalesfor2023upfromIDR476tnlastyearMEITUAMoodysaffirmedMeituansBaa3andrevisedoutlooktostablePOLHONPolyPropertyGroupproposestoofferuptoRMB2bncorporatebondstorepaydebtsREDSUNRedsunFY22revenuedown25toRMB20bnandgotRMB39bnlossSINOCEMediareportedthatSino-OceanisrequestedbystafftopayoutstandingRMB200mnwealthmanagementproductoriginallypayablesince1H22VNKRLEVankeFY22revenueincreases11toRMB5038bnandprofitdown14toRMB376bnYXREITSPaffirmedYuexiuREITBBB-ratingandplacednegativeoutlook431Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5