研究报告全文：MN31Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateTongda698HKFY22resultsbelowGPMrecoveryonbetterproductmixTargetPriceHK020TongdasFY22revenuenetprofitdeclined2040YoYbelowourmarketPreviousTPHK022expectationsduetoweakAndroiddemandandmacroheadwindsbutGPMUpDownside725improved25pptsYoYto184onbetterproductmixLookingaheadwhileCurrentPriceHK012Androidmarketremainschallengingin1H23EmgmtispositiveonAppleproductstodriveASPGPMupsidein2H23Eandnon-handsetbusinesswillChinaTechnologybecomemajorgrowthdriversinFY23-24EWereviseddownourFY23-24EEPSAlexNGby19-23toreflectlowersalesbettermarginsanddilutionimpactofaward85239000881sharesinFY22OurnewTPofHK020isbasedonhigher55xFY23EPEvsalexngcmbicomhk5xprior20below1-sdof8-yearhistavgPEof7xgivenearningsrecoveryandimprovingprofitabilityinFY23-24ETradingat3229xFY2324EPEweLilyYANGPhDthinkthestockhasattractiveriskrewardMaintainBUY85239163716lilyyangcmbicomhkFY22resultsbelowGPMimprovementonbetterproductmixTongdasFY22revenuedeclineof20YoYmissedourconsensusestimatesonHanqingLIweakAndroiddemandgivenmacroheadwindsBysegment1handsetlihanqingcmbicomhkcasingshigh-precisioncomponentsdropped27YoYduetosluggishStockDatadomesticsmartphonedemand2householdandsportsgoodsweredownMktCapHKmn112744YoYonEuropeandUScustomersinventorycorrection3networkAvg3mthstoHKmn01communicationsandothersrose12YoYdrivenbyNEValuminiumbattery52wHighLowHK017007TotalIssuedSharesmn97190andautointeriorcomponentorderwinsGPMjumped25pptsYoYto184SourceFactSetthankstobetterproductmixandhigh-marginAppleproductdrivingsharegainin2H22NetprofitwasHK137mndown398YoYonlossofHKShareholdingStructure272mninsmartelectricalappliancescasingswhichisnowadiscontinuedLandmarkWorldwideHoldings244LtdoperationforTongdaWangYaNan78AppleproductstodriveASPGPMupsideeyesonnon-handsetSourceHKExbusinessLookingaheaddespiteweakAndroidmarketin1H23EmgmtSharePerformanceexpectsthatApplesnewiPhoneorderwinswilldriveASPandGPMupsideAbsoluteRelativein2H23EMgmtremainspositiveonthehouseholdandsportgoodsbiz1-mth-94-117spin-offwhichwillenhanceprofitabilityInadditionmgmtexpectshigh3-mth-101-1246-mth22135growthinnetworkcommunicationsotherssegmentdrivenby1easingchipSourceFactSetshortageandhighordervisibilityinFY24E2strongdemandafterWifi-7launchin2H23Eand3newmaterialbizforrunningshoesramp-up12-mthPricePerformanceAttractiveriskrewardMaintainBUYWeloweredFY23-24Erevenueby13-14toreflectongoingAndroidweaknessbutrevisedupFY23-24EGPMforhigherApplesalesmixOurnewTPofHK02isbasedonhigher55xFY23Evs5xpriorgivenearningsrecoveryandimprovingmarginsaheadTradingat32x29xFY2324EPEwethinkthestockhasattractiveriskrewardMaintainBUYSourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKmn94337559784586429386YoYgrowth331993810286NetprofitHKmn22821373353538634318EPSReportedHKcents289141364397444YoYgrowth415512157593118ConsensusEPSHKcentsna200300400211PEx13898322926PBx0301010101Yield0000676767ROE3117454851Netgearing268234405195246SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk31Mar2023FY22ResultsReviewFigure1ResultsreviewCMBIConsensusRMBmnFY19FY20FY21FY22YoYFY22EDiffFY22EDiffRevenue9186975994337559-208289-98368-10Grossprofit1677171015031392-71493-71476-6Operatingprofit586502308557813137828894Netprofit402351228137-40206-34191-28EPSRMB006005003001-51003-46002-29Grossmargin18317515918425ppt18004ppt17608pptOperatingmargin6451337441ppt3836ppt3439pptNetmargin44362418-06ppt25-07ppt23-05pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesEarningsRevisionAdjustedFY2324EEPStoreflectAndroidweaknessWereviseddownourFY23-24EEPSby19-23toreflectlowersalesbettermarginsanddilutionimpactofawardsharesinFY22Figure2EarningsrevisionNewOldChangeHKmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue784586429386897410048na-13-14naGrossprofit15021662182716391817na-8-9naOperatingprofit416460504466513na-11-10naNetprofit354386432354406na0-5naEPSHK00360040004400450051na-19-23naGrossmargin191192195183181na09ppt11pptnaOperatingmargin5353545251na01ppt02pptnaNetMargin4545463940na06ppt04pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBISConsensusDiffHKmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue78458642938689959959na-13-13naGrossprofit15021662182716651845na-10-10naOperatingprofit416460504454507na-8-9naNetprofit354386432333384na61naEPSHK00360040004400300040na21-1naGrossmargin191192195185185na06ppt07pptnaOperatingmargin5353545051na03ppt02pptnaNetMargin4545463739na08ppt06pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE231Mar2023Figure4RevenuebreakdownHKmnFY211H222H22FY22FY23EFY24EFY25EHandsets7281285927425335551759276212YoY-4-22-24-27375Metal740255166421350360360YoY-17-32-55-43-1730Glastic3948146712082675240524572457YoY-5-23-41-32-1020Glass222------YoY-56000000Apple2333113713592496271228102995YoY16-12317947Electricalappliances536228150----YoY-22-29-30----Householdgoods11386746221093155518662239YoY411513-4422020Networkcommunications10145066261131772849934YoY44-42912-321010Total9969426741407559784586429386YoY2-17-15-244109SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5PLforecastHKmnFY211H222H22FY22FY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue9433426741407559784586429386YoY-33-166-147-1993810286Costofsales-7930-3495-26726167634369817559Grossprofit15037726201392150216621827GPM159181150184191192195YoY-12104-155-7479106100SellingExp57691653636994ofrev-06-1604-07-08-08-10RD0241241515416458497ofrev00-5758-68-53-53-53Operatingprofit308107450557416460504OPM332510974535354YoY-387337974808-25310694Netprofit22833104137354386432NPM24082518454546YoY-351-388-402-398157593118SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE331Mar2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK020OurnewTPofHK020isbasedonhigher55xFY23EPEvs5xprior20below1-sdof8-yearhistavgPEof7xgivenearningsrecoveryandimprovingprofitabilityinFY23-24EWethinkcurrentvaluationof32x29xFY22E23EPEisattractivewellbelow1-sdbelowhistPEasweexpectearningsrecoveryin2023andnewbusinessramp-upinFY23-24EFigure6PeersvaluationMarketCapPriceTPUpDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EHK-listedTongda698HKBUY14401202072322901012947BYDE285HKHOLD65012265203-101571271614102114JuTeng3336HKNR200131NANA------FIH2038HKNR858085NANA21710805052244Average1358807075168China-listedEverwin300115CHNR24391395NANA238149232473203Janus300083CHNR2100861NANA1391083126240208Average1881282725156205Overseas-listedFoxconn2354TTNR25825560NANA12711906055357Catcher2474TTNR444618950NANA21017308084045Average16814607074751SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure712MforwardPEbandFigure812MforwardPBbandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE431Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnRevenue975994337559784586429386Costofgoodssold804879306167634369817559Grossprofit171015031392150216621827Operatingexpenses118611631175102011321248Sellingexpense1365753636994Adminexpense10501106112295710631154SGAexpense000000Others223262666975Operatingprofit502308557416460504EBITDA11213751514142815271625Otherincomeexpense1026971120113121Others17574138138138138Pre-taxprofit430303491398436487Incometax705167384247Minorityinterest81514788Netprofit351228137354386432Adjustednetprofit351228137354386432BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnCurrentassets76589354799387021031511111Cashequivalents13531366119568624252079Accountreceivables299333172159308826933585Inventories220431772351264229103161Prepayment486523653653653653Othercurrentassets6229711634163416341634Non-currentassets664274026236652660605539PPE582466585598588854224901Othernon-currentassets818744638638638638Totalassets143001675514229152291637516650Currentliabilities621277205444613769416823Short-termborrowings222829311928282229353065Accountpayables320737722531232930202772Othercurrentliabilities7771016986986986986Non-currentliabilities14228141154117612001229Long-termborrowings13006391051107310971126Othernon-currentliabilities123175103103103103Totalliabilities763485346598731381428052Sharecapital659797979797Otherreserves655380637466774380548410Totalshareholdersequity666682217631791582338598Minorityinterest496168758291Totalequityandliabilities143001675514229152281637516650PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE531Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecHKmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation430303491398436487Depreciationamortization61967957101210671121Changeinworkingcapital25373127914208171390Others9676985395178Netcashfromoperations13974081642482268140InvestingCapitalexpenditure1176900600600600600Others3183201816932Netcashfrominvesting8581220582584591568FinancingDividendpaid300767676Netborrowings22343256124138158Proceedsfromshareissues07520000Others104980000Netcashfromfinancing331696256486282NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear10781353136612716862425Exchangedifference66129898000Cashattheendoftheyear13531366127168624252079GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue62331993810286Grossprofit201217479106100Operatingprofit14338780825310694EBITDA646663039576964Netprofit125351398157593118Adjnetprofit125351398157593118PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin175159184191192195Operatingmargin513374535354EBITDAmargin11540200182177173Adjnetprofitmargin362418454546ReturnonequityROE563117454851GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTI2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EVITIESYE31DecNetdebttoequityx030302040202Currentratiox121215141516Receivableturnoverdays111112211221122112211221Inventoryturnoverdays100912381636143714511466Payableturnoverdays139616061398139813981398VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE10013898322926PB050301010101Divyield010000676767EV222402266018521328481691522046EVSales020202040202EVEBITDA206012231114SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE631Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7